Jumps racing returns to Cheltenham this weekend, and there are races like the 16:55 race today which I relish.
Each way is my favourite way. Let’s take a look at this 16:55 race today and see why it is a perfect race for each-way betting.
Why do I like this race?
It is the perfect recipe for each-way betting. It ticks all of the boxes
1) A short-odds favourite (this pushes the odds of the other horses up).
2) Clear outsiders (three horses over 50/1).
This leaves at least four horses shortlisted. These four (Dans Le Vent, Gortroe Joe, Cash in Med and Point of Principle) look like the most probable horses to place, or win, if the short-priced favourite Slate House under-performs.
This kind of each-way formula is well worth pursuing during the Jumps season. All it takes is for the strong favourite to put in a jumping error, in order to give us that ‘angle in’.
I would increase my chances of success by backing two horses in that race each-way.
Try this out this Jumps season. Look for eight-runner races (the smallest field to pay out three places) and hope those hurdles hinder the market principle!
Basic pace angles
I wrote last week about pace and how solving the pace puzzle can really help in deciphering how a race can be run.
Here is an idea you can employ.
Go to www.attheraces.com (ATR for short). Use their race cards instead of the race cards at www.racingpost.com.
Why? Well I want access to past winners. Those are freely available at ATR. You can access past winners in the PREVIOUS WINNERS section of a race card. Click on the year (for instance, 2016) in order to access the race result.
You will recall last week there were four types of pace horse. Can you remember them?
1) The leader
2) The prominent horses – the pressers
3) The midfield horses
4) The hold-up horses
Take a look at previous years’ results and note the comments for the winners. Why?
We want to see what type of pace horse race well.
The previous winners of today’s 14:00 Cheltenham race, for instance, were:
2. EL BANDIT (IRE) Tracked leaders, went 2nd 6th, soon led, headed off last bend, stayed on flat, led again final 75 yards
This horse tracked the leaders, so I would describe him as a Number 2) a prominent/presser. This was only a four-horse race though, so may be skewed.
5. PENGLAI PAVILION (USA) Held up in touch in 4th, closed 3 out, challenged last, shaken up to lead final 150 yards, ran on well and drew clear, easily.
The winner here was a ‘hold up’ horse, would you agree? The favourite, interestingly enough, was third and ‘Led, ridden and joined when mistake last, soon headed, no extra final 150 yards’.
Leaders so far have not fared well…
The winner in 2014?
7. VICENTE (FR) Tracked leaders, challenged 3 out, went 2nd after next, 1 length down last, soon ridden and every chance, stayed on to lead narrowly towards finish.
Another presser/prominent horse. There was another leader in this race, a horse finishing fifth. Carry on doing this and you get an idea for which pace profiles are suited to this particular race. I would suggest with this small sample that leaders are vulnerable.
Now we have a fair idea that leaders are vulnerable and those horses prominent in the races (but not at the front) are best served, head on over to that other website I mentioned last month, www.racinguk.com.
Use the TF Pacemap to get an idea of the pace profiles for today’s runners (as can be seen below)…
Knowing that leaders are vulnerable, Treacle Tart looks layable. Would you agree? Horses 1 and 3 fit the profile of prominent/close up horses who look to fit the bill for this particular race.
Time will tell if I am onto something. I will be watching this race with interest!