By the time you read this, I will be in Japan accompanying my Dad, following in the football steps of such greats as Gary Lineker and Arsene Wenger, who both stayed there for a time.
In between sushi, sake and sumo, I will be looking at the World Cup to see if I can sniff out any possible plays. I will include my conclusions in next week’s eletter, which will be on the 15th June, the second day of the finals.
The markets which interest me? See below…
Winner 2018 – Is there an alternative to the obvious favourites Brazil and Germany? Brazil have not actually played in any of the last three finals.
Top Goalscorer – The key to success here is in ‘guesstimating’ which of the teams will last the longest; and which of those teams meet weaker opponents with leakier defences – Germany, Germany and Columbia had the top goalscorer at the last three World Cups. Another German player this year?
Golden Ball – This is the player of the tournament – not necessarily the top scorer. Will the Golden Ball candidate have to be in one of the two finalists? It was Messi in 2014; a finalist and a semi-finalist, Forlan in 2010. The Golden Ball went to French, Uruguayan and Argentinian players in the last three World Cups. Look away from the obvious?
Top Goalscorer – Top 4: a market which interests me.
To Reach the Quarter Final – Plot your way through the Group Stages and onto likeliest teams to meet.
Winning Group – An excellent market to dutch. Imagine if you can back three of these groups; you’re covering 12 teams! Group G with England and Belgium gives you two strong candidates. Group B with Portugal and Belgium the same.
Continental Specials Markets – We could spot some value here.
Websites such as http://www.fifa.com/fifa-tournaments/archive/worldcup/index.html will prove invaluable in looking for patterns in goals scored, say in group stages as compared with the knockout stages.
www.Uk.soccerway.com is an excellent resource to filter out teams by prior World Cup performances, World Cup qualifiers performance, and recent friendlies performance.
I’ll see you next week for the World Cup lowdown. I might even get to squeeze in the Japan vs Paraguay friendly, or maybe not; it’s being played in Innsbruck! D’oh!
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