When should you back the 2nd favourite?

Something one of the writers at What Really Wins Money wrote for this June’s Newsletter had me thinking.

Did you know that the highest probability of success in horse racing each-way betting comes from 5 runner races. You have a 40% chance of any of your each-way selections placing.

So I thought I’d look at the performance of 2nd favourites in 5 runner races. What are the ideal conditions to back any 2nd favourite in a 5 runner race. I chose 2nd favourites because their odds should, invariably, allow each-way betting.

13 and 18 furlong races. Backing the 2nd favourite in 13 furlong races turned a 21 point profit over the last 10 years.

( 8 furlongs to 1 mile)

Brighton, Wolverhampton, Ffos Las and Newton Abbot were the best performing courses for 2nd favourites.

Grade 2 races, Median and Auction races are the 3 best performing race types for 2nd favourites.

If we start off with a 40% chance of success by backing a selection in a 5-runner race each way, then we can , I hope, increase profitability further by a focus on some or all of the above distinctions.

What I am going to do is to focus on Brighton, Wolverhampton, Ffos Las and Newton Abbot for starters, particularly if there are any Grade 2 events there. The odds in Grade 2 races for the second favourites has generally been quite high, perfect for each-way betting.

I’ll let you know how I get on!

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