I saw an advert for a golf tipster this week and it serves as a prompt to remind you that all that glitters is not gold.
This particular golf tipster has picked the winner in two consecutive golf tournaments. That is quite some feat, and quite some reward. Perfect of course for those headlines screaming out xyz points profit from just two bets.
It also brought back the memories from another golf tipster who, between April 2014 to date, had not picked a single tournament winner and not made a profit in real terms, whilst still charging for his service and keeping members hoping, wishing, for that big priced winner.
Always know the characteristics of any tipping service you are going to join.
A golf tipster is what I would characterise as a “value tipster”. With a value tipster we would expect long losing runs, propped up hopefully by those eye-catching big-odds winners.
Ask yourself if you would be happy joining a service which may coincidentally be about to embark upon the mother of all losing runs?
There are services out there with these “value” characteristics who do bring home the bacon. Take a look at www.price-power.com. This service can have horrendous losing runs lasting months, but still manages a profit based on the calendar year, each year.
Two more – www.victorvalueracing.com and www.theracingprofessionals.co.uk – are also “value-based” tipsters who have those concomitant long losing-runs.
The latter service is yet to get into profit for its Flat racing service this 2015. Contextually, they began 2014 with a winner at Betfair SP odds of 607.45, so with services like this, as well as golf services, it is the big winners which will negate the long losing runs.
All of this, of course, is not mentioned on the marketing blurb! Do try to suss out the characteristics of any tipping service you join. I try to do this monthly for you in the What Really Wins Money newsletter.
No, my girlfriend has not just taken retribution out on me after finding my carefully secreted haul of tastefully shot Kelly Brook bikini calendars. I am of course referring to the 2015 Rugby World Cup which begins next week. Here’s your resource for the competition: http://www.rugbyworldcup.com/fixtures.
I will enter this tournament from a trading perspective and look to take advantage of potential upsets. I remember with glee an Ireland v New Zealand friendly match in which Ireland led with 30 seconds remaining on the clock.
Fast-forward to full time and the match saw New Zealand win 22-24!
I’ll be tweeting @whatreallywins throughout the tournament if I find some strong trading opportunities. I would focus on the likes of Scotland and Italy for upsets, particularly if they meet the big Samoans . There were, though, few upsets in 2011.
There are some interesting peripheral markets, which I will look into this week and report back next week. The Match Odds markets offer little value unless you want to oppose extremely short odds favourites like England and Ireland.
In the Top Try-Scorer market, there is already money waiting to back Nehe Milner-Skudder, but looking at clips of this New Zealand player, he seems more adept at running and off loading for others to score the try.
What we need for a Top Try-Scorer market pick, I feel, is to focus on a player from a major side who will meet the most minnows in the early rounds. Well, with New Zealand playing the likes of Argentina, Namibia and Georgia, I may return to Nehe or one of his colleagues!
If you think you have nailed the winner for this year’s World Cup, then think about a straight forecast bet, i.e. the 1st and 2nd teams. This will eek out more value for you.
There is plenty for me to work on this week and I’ll let you know any conclusions next week, in time for the World Cup.
There is a sumptuous card at Doncaster tomorrow, which I’ll look through for you…
200 Doncaster – This is a 7-runner race and historically the market has been accurate with 4 favourites winning in the last 7. Richard Hannon has won 3 of the last 4 runnings so Palawan must be of interest.
235 Doncaster – Only 2 favourites have won since 2005 and the favourite won last year. Can we swerve the favourite this year, from a probability perspective? I would look to a horse priced between 14/1 – 20/1 each way here.
345 Doncaster – The St Ledger is a perfect each way race, consisting of 8 runners only. After a run of 6 races without a favourite, this race has been won by the last 2 favourites. Aiden O’Brien runs 3 horses in this 8-runner field. I would back the middle odds (no odds available as I write) of the 3 runners, Bondi Beach, Fields of Athenry and Order of St George.
I wish you luck if you’re getting involved in the Doncaster meeting tomorrow.
You might also be taken by the small matter of Manchester United v Liverpool tomorrow at 530pm. Man Utd have actually won the last 2 head-to-heads 3-0 and 1-2.
Both sides actually have identical form this season, as far as the results are concerned.
Both sides have eerily won their opening 2 matches 1-0, drawn their next match 0-0 and lost their 4th match, 2-1 for United away to Swansea and 0-3 for Liverpool at home to West Ham.
Neither side therefore has scored more than a single goal in a match this season. This will have to change if United are to replicate their results from head-to-heads.
I cannot call this match, alas, but I will be online for members of www.drt.club, as we react in-play as the action unfolds. Do look out for bookmaker specials for this match tomorrow. I cannot find any at the moment and am slightly surprised that there are no specials. I would look through the bookmakers promotions tomorrow and see what, if anything, is available for such a high-profile match.
See you next week for some cracking Rugby World Cup special bets (I hope), and those followers of the oval ball, share your thoughts at Twitter @whatreallywins or at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Have a great weekend.