April’s edition of What Really Wins Money will be winging its way to readers with the speed and accuracy of a Henrik Stensen drive on a Par 5 at Augusta.
This month sees Lucy Collins put the finishing touches to her excellent introduction to the art of betting: the ‘Seven Pillars to Betting Success’.
In Lucy’s final instalment she puts forward an excellent methodology on how to build a portfolio of betting systems to ensure long-term success. She recommends low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk strategies to be run together.
What would you suggest for a low-risk strategy? How about ‘bonus bagging’? The art of freeing up bookmaker bonuses and guaranteeing a return. That, folks, is about as low-risk as it gets.
A high-risk strategy could be something like a loss-retrieval strategy which doesn’t suit all, but may allow for a quicker profit accumulation.
Lucy has also included a betting portfolio spreadsheet, which will prove invaluable. I must say I have thoroughly enjoyed her series and have learnt loads too along the way. She’s a clever one, that Lucy!!
The Patriarch, the purveyor of betting ideas of yore, comes into the 21st century with an idea on how to exploit our ability to lay horses. Why not lay in doubles? He shows you precisely how to achieve this.
The Statman has come up with a superb backing system which would have made £2,235 to £1 stakes over the last ten years. That will beat your bank’s interest rate I feel, over the same time period. The key to success? Look for horses in certain races who are wearing headgear!
I must thank reader Victor for his strategy on how to create evens bets with a high probability of success. I share this idea, and a strategy for how to create these strong evens bets. He contacted me via the comments section at www.whateallywinsmoney.co.uk, so fire away if you have any comments or questions.
The idea I call the ‘Ted Rogers System’, as it turns 3 to 1, three bets into one bet of evens. The basics? Victor recounted to me something very interesting. Did you know that when you combine a 1/3, 1/4 and 1/5 shot together into a treble, the payout is about evens! A 1/3 shot for the new initiate means you back a selection with £3 to return £1. Poor value. I’d prefer the evens myself!!
It’s a great idea and good news for readers is that I will be offering my own daily selections for the Ted Rogers System at the members’ website at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk.
There’ll be other great articles, including a sneak peek into some of my most profitable Delay-React-Trade football strategies. This month, I share what I call the ‘Hoffenheim Effect’. Followers of DRT know precisely what I’m talking about…
The basic idea is to latch onto a team who show particular characteristics week-in and week-out. These characteristics show up statistically and are an absolute gold-mine!
And before I go, the US Masters is about to start. April – that time of the month when the TV remote control becomes welded to my hand for a few days! If my girlfriend wants to watch her usual rubbish, well she’ll have to depart these shores for four days!
The Masters markets at www.betfair.com are very interesting. Three previous winners appear in the top four, along with Rory Mcilroy as third-favourite.
Adam Scott is inserted as 6.2 favourite at www.betfair.com. Come on folks, this is the Masters, not the Australian Open featuring Dingo Dave, Bruce McShiela and Crocodile Dundee as opponents.
Adam is far too short, but he is threatening to be Number 1 in the world soon.
What interests me is the Top-10 Finish market…
It is a little bit illiquid, but has Adam Scott at 1.53, Bubba Watson at 2.5, Rory at 2.12, and Louis Oosthuizen at 2.58. It would be such an anomaly (would it not?) for these four to all finish in the top 10.
Golf is such an exacting sport that a mistake is possible, a mistake maybe which catapults one or more of these guys out of the top 10.
Last year, Rory was second-favourite and ended tied-25th. Bubba Watson finished tied-50th last year (and that may have been the ‘hangover’ of achieving the win the year before). Louis Oosthuizen missed the cut last year, yet is 2.58 to finish in the Top 10…
Adam Scott was a 25/1-shot last year and won the Masters. Will he really retain the crown? Look what happened to Bubba Watson. And where was the favourite last year? He was tied-fourth. Third-favourite last year? Why, he was tied-54th!
This is the only value I see in this year’s Masters. It is so competitive that it would be weird to see these four players all finish in the top 10. It is questionable how much first-time winners can really hype themselves up to win consecutively. Take your pick of which (or all) of these four players under 3.00, which you want to lay to finish in the top 10.
I would lay Adam Scott, on general principle, to win the tournament at 6.4. That is far too short but liabilities are too big.
Top senior Fred Couples must give us a run for our money surely (in the Top Seniors market as well as a trading option in the win only market).
Tied-13th last year, Fred is ultra consistent He was tied-12th the year before! Backing Fred at 150 odds on Betfair for the outright win might require some faith, but as a trading vehicle it might offer us a chance?
If he continues to be as consistent as the last two years, his odds will certainly not be 150 on Saturday or Sunday.
Those are my thoughts for the Masters.
Good luck if you are having a play. A word of warning: there is one golf tipster who has not had a profitable month since August 2013. It’s a tough sport to make any money from unless you’re a curly haired Irish scamp dating a rather nice Danish tennis professional.
Have a great weekend.