What the betting market reveals for sports betting this weekend

‘Beaujolais Rodney!’ It’s Arc De Triomphe weekend at Longchamps, France, and it’s a tough competitive card.

As to the Arc De Triomphe, it’s an 18-runner race and sees a very short-priced favourite in Treve at about 5/4.

The betting market points to this race being a race dominated by the first 6 in the betting with Treve, Golden Horn, New Bay, Free Eagle, Found and Flintshire.

I am going Irish in France and will back Found, Aiden O’Brien’s runner, and Free Eagle, the Dermot Weld runner. I will back both of these horses at competitive prices and each way. In an 18-runner field, we really do need the safety net of the three places on offer. I am reminded especially of these trainers excellent records when they send their horses overseas.

What the betting market reveals for sports betting this weekend

I am currently recording all of the match odds for Betfair in-play football coupons because there is a certain odds configuration which could provide us with a long-term betting angle.

Tight match odds in football

When I see something like this, on the Betfair in-play coupon, I record the match:

Especially take a look at the match between Mgladbach and Wolfsburg.

What is the market telling us? Well, with Mgladbach at odds of 2.78 and Wolfsburg at odds of 2.76, the betting market is effectively telling us ‘Sorry mate, I haven’t got a Scooby Doo about this match!’

So what does this tell us? The 2 teams cannot be split. Is the draw more likely? Is a tight win more likely? Can we lay any team leading 1-0 or 2-1/1-2 late in the match in the hope that the match is as tight as the market suggests it will be?

This is what I am keen to find out. The more results I can gather, the better chance I will have of finding a pattern which I hope we can go to war with.

I’m always keen to find a new angle into my football trading, mostly for members of www.drt.club, so this is my new problem to solve.

With tight matches in mind, England take on Australia in the rugby World Cup tomorrow…

The England odds are 1.92 tomorrow with Australia at 2.24.

Basically the betting market has to create a favourite and England look very reluctant favourites. With England leading 22-12 against Wales at one stage in their famous last match, there is an argument that one bad decision stopped England from a more comfortable progression into the quarter finals.

From a personal perspective, I would look to lay England/England Halftime/Fulltime at current odds of 2.62. Australia are no push-overs. The fulltime result, I find, is far more important than the halftime result in rugby union and the halftime leaders are not necessarily the full-time match odds winners.

There has only been one draw between England and Australia in head-to-heads so lay any very, very, very late draw in this match. This is compounded too by the need for England to get a result.

33 points and 43 points total in the last 2 head to heads between England and Australia suggests over 30.5 points has a chance here in this match.

From a trading perspective in the other rugby World Cup fixtures tomorrow, I would be looking to lay Samoa at odds of 1.4 against Japan and indeed South Africa at odds of 1.2 against Scotland. These 2 matches I hope will be tighter than the odds suggest.

Good luck however you play.

Be aware – be wise

As a person involved with sports trading day-in and day-out, I was rather alarmed by a couple of readers expressing interest in a particular service from Lisbon Portugal. It is called Be Wise Trader and the very fact it is being run from Lisbon Portugal (you know, that [erm] hotbed for sports trading) should have those good ole alarm bells ringing.

The second aspect of this service which raises alarm bells is the introductory video at the website. The person, no offence to him, is not really the type of person I would want to be investing my money in. Where are your credentials, mate?

The third aspect of this service which has me running for the hills is that it seems to involve these guys sports trading your money for you and returning you a set amount each week/month. I am sorry but in this industry, if you are going to send hundreds or thousands of pounds to a stranger to ‘invest’ for you, then I have a spaghetti tree I can sell you, after I’ve sold you my rare collection of buckets of steam.

If this is a scam, here’s what probably happens… You start small. You get returns. You think ‘Great, I’ll invest some more’. You invest some more, you get returns, you think ‘Great. I’ll invest even more’. You invest even more, the returns stop. You panic!

Never, ever, ever, hand over any money to anyone in this betting world of ours, who will manage or trade money for you. It is a recipe for disaster.

Further, this lot seem to be linked to GooGoo Bets, info for which I found here.

I was also reminded by another set of correspondence referring to a ‘Midas group’ horse racing tipster service that a reader has asked my opinion on. I replied sharply ‘Where are the results and the archived results?’ to which he replied that there weren’t any!

Remember folks: the power is in your hands. Just because someone wants £97 off you for a promise of future horse racing riches, it doesn’t mean you have to give it to them!! Insist upon results at all times and results that you can personally inspect. If these are not forthcoming, walk away.

I’m off now to wish my dad all the best. He’s an Englishman in Australia! I have told him to be very subtle in his celebrations should England click in the rugby World Cup tomorrow.

Have a great weekend!