Hankies to the ready…
The last What Really Wins Money newsletter has just been finalised, as I wipe a tear of happiness (erm, I mean tear of sadness) from my eye.
As befits the last newsletter of the year, I’ve done a review of all of the betting strategies we have covered in January to September newsletters. We have covered all sports and all angles, from each-way doubles, to statistics and horse racing, to football permutations, compounding betting banks, one-a-day laying, to the more high-risk-high-reward strategies. There is something for everyone.
What do I like best about this year’s newsletters? It would personally have to be the ‘Home-Grown’ Betting Systems – some of which are into their 2nd and 3rd years of profits.
You can really win money!
In the newsletter, the All-Weather racing gets a good mention this month, what with the expected chilly spells on their way. This won’t affect the artificial surfaces. I have a great profitable laying system which lays horses at odds of 1.5 and lower, and has profited for 2 years.
The Statman shows us this month which trainers to focus on at which All-Weather venue. As ever, the Statman unearths some great profit figures which, if continuing into the future, will yield some excellent returns.
Handicap races have always been seen as the most competitive of race types, so I’ve taken this on board and uncovered a system where we can back the horse in the Place Only market and make a profit, whilst laying the same horse in the Win Only market.
The Patriarch uncovers how to find Under 2.5 Goals matches in the football, and rather than backing Under 2.5 Goals, unleashes a correct score permutation which could sky-rocket profits.
I update my Home-Grown Betting Systems, exclusive to What Really Wins Money and end the year with some very interesting back and lay strategies to profit from in 2016.
The Home-Grown Betting Systems employ a ‘portfolio’ approach to betting, which I think is important. Have some low-risk slow burners, some medium-riskers and some high-risk strategies too. As I said earlier, high risk = high reward and if luck is on our side for a long enough period of time, we can reap the rewards.
Farewell International Break!
‘Normal’ football returns this weekend but I would caution you to ‘beware the Curse of the Champions League’.
Pay attention this weekend to teams who have up and coming Champions League fixtures next week, particularly if they are playing away matches this weekend in their domestic leagues.
On that roster I’d include Manchester United away to Watford. Prior to a Champions League match this season, United struggled to beat Aston Villa 0-1, drew 0-0 with Newcastle, did beat Liverpool 3-1, Sunderland 3-0, and Everton 0-3, and drew 0-0 away to Crystal Palace.
There is the glimmer of a pattern here with the 0-1, 0-0 and 0-0 away. They will find Watford stubborn opponents today.
Prior to their Champions League matches, Chelsea have lost 3-1 away to Everton, drawn 2-2 with Newcastle, beaten Aston Villa 2-0 (my Sunday League side could beat Aston Villa 2-0, and that’s with 4 of our team not turning up because they have hangovers), and lost 1-3 to Liverpool.
Yes, Chelsea are dodgier than Arthur Daley, but are they opposable at under 1.5 odds at home this weekend v Norwich City? They may get away with it but I would not be a Chelsea backer with those pre-Champions League credentials!
Manchester City I think are vulnerable to the ‘Curse of the Champions League’ this weekend, hosting a Liverpool side set to rediscover itself under Herr Klopp of Ze Kop.
In their pre-Champions League matches, Manchester City needed a 90th minute winner v Palace, lost 4-1 to Tottenham, were lucky to meet Bournemouth and beat them 5-1, and needed an 89th minute penalty to beat Norwich.
I would be no City backer this weekend, that’s for sure.
Arsenal are that rare commodity with 4 wins in 4 Premier League matches prior to a Champions League match, so they may continue that away to a West Brom side struggling v top 10 sides (tending to conceded 2/3 goals) this season.
The Curse of the Champions League is a very real thing. Check it out for yourself in the French Ligue 1, Italian Seria A and Spanish La Liga, with teams playing league matches prior to a Champions League fixture. They do seem to struggle.
My lazy way of picking selections in last Friday’s Cheltenham Festival, using the consensus of www.racingpost.com, www.attheraces.com and www.timeform.com nearly yielded a big-priced winner in the first as Minella Present came second by a length at 9/1. In the 1.40 Cheltenham, the proverbial each way bet to nothing As Da Me finished second at 4/1, finely poised if More Of That was unable to win.
Pengali Pavilion lost. I guess the past winners stats was the key here. The last 3 winners of this race were at odds of 8/1, 9/2 and 10/1.
Josies Orders was my shout in the 2.50 Cheltenham and won at 11/4. Dollar and a Dream placed in the 3.25 Cheltenham out of my two selections there.
So do remember the consensus method for the big horse racing meetings! Let the websites do all of the form-digging for you. If they tend to agree, then go for it. And do remember the importance of past winners (available on the race cards at www.racingpost.com and www.irishracing.com). They can give clear indicators for possible future performance. (Ask Pengali Pavilion!)
The Betfair Chase is the big race this weekend, so let’s take this one through the consensus method.
This race takes place 3pm Haydock on Saturday 21st November.
Past winners – No favourite has won in the last 4 runnings. Paul Nicholls has won 6 of the last 9 runnings, and 3 of the last 4 runnings. Silviniaco Conti is the sole Nicholls runner and the favourite, so will have to buck the trend and break the 4-run sequence of favourites not winning. He is a past winner too. Silviniaco Conti won in 2012 and 2014 and second-favourite Cue Card won in 2013.
I would chance Cue Card each way at current 3/1 today, as another each way bet to nothing in a less-than-appealing 5-runner Chase race.
Cue Card will continue the poor run of favourites winning, if he wins so I will stick with him each way.
I’m off now to get some more Kleenex tissues. Those tears of joy (er, I mean sadness) won’t relent as I wave goodbye to 2015’s What Really Wins Money newsletters.
Have a great weekend. Will you chance the Curse of the Champions League?