I couldn’t not mention the Champions League Semi-Finals this week. Magnificent performances from the Premier League sides.
I must blow my own trumpet. At www.delayreacttrade.com I did sniff out some value in laying Barcelona to qualify at odds of 1.06. Low risk/High returns is just what the doctor ordered. It looked unlikely to oblige but the beauty of these odds is that little is risked for , still, a decent return.
I was not as clued up with the Tottenham match alas. 2-0 down at halftime, had you believed in miracles you could have layed Ajax in the ‘to qualify’ market at some very short odds such as 1.03 I.e. for every £3 risked, you could win £100!! Nice work from the boys from Tottingham.
This is not the first time there has been the ‘mother of all comebacks’. I seem to remember Juventus recently 0-3 down to Real Madrid.
With Chester’s May meeting with us, it is a good time to look at the power of the draw in the turf and all-weather flat season.
With my usual focus on favourites, here are some stats based around the draw you may find useful.
Most profitable draws.
Draws 12, 16 and 10 stand out for backing favourites. 98, 48 and 38 points profit.
This is across all turf race courses. It looks a very simplistic approach.
Favourite backers focus on these tracks which have a solid 10-year record
- Goodwood – 77 points profit Betfair SP
- Windsor – 72 points profit Betfair SP
- Thirsk – 62 points profit Betfair SP.
- Redcar – 58 points profit Betfair SP
Let’s look at the draw bias at these 4 tracks with the best profit for favourite backers.
Draws 13 and 15 are absolute standout at these 4 race courses with a 61 and 42 points profit Betfair SP
Draws 1 and 2 are next best on 34 points and 27 points profit.
So we have focussed on the 4 race courses where favourite backers make the most money and now on the draw at those venues most favourable to favourite backers.
So, at Goodwood, Windsor, Thirsk and Redcar this flat season, back favourites when they come out of stalls 13 and 15, as well as 1 and 2.
I will be following this keenly and noting performance.
I’m off now to borrow someone’s Delorean, go back a few days, lay Barcelona in the to qualify market and then load up winnings laying Ajax in the ‘to qualify market’ at halftime. Anyone got the number of a certain M. McFly?