The secret to profiting from probability betting…
I wrote last weekend about a way to place each way bets in certain horse races.
Selections are profiting this week to at my blog at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. I make selections free to subscribers of What Really Wins Money, but below is a framework you can try out, paper trade, and have fun with.
‘Probability betting’ can offer you a great chance of profiting from this very unique each way betting method.
To recap from last week’s eletter, we want to put the probabilities in our favour. How do we do that?
1) – Focus only on 8/9-runner races. This is the shortest-sized field which will pay out for three places (each way betting is effectively two bets: on a horse to win, and on a horse to place in the first three in 8/9-runner races).
2) – Ideally look for races with ‘perceived outsiders’. Finding a race where there are three big-priced horses increases our probabilities further. Why? Well in an 8-runner race, ignoring the three outsiders can reduce the competitive field to five runners, three of whom will place.
And that is my primary goal: for a selection to place at least, with a win an obvious very welcome bonus. This is an ideal – not a set-in-stone – rule.
3) – I also increase the probability of hitting a winner and placed selection by making what I call a ‘usual’ selection and a ‘speculative’ selection. Making two selections in an 8-runner race should increase the probability of winning and placing.
The ‘usual’ selection will be the more obvious horse to place, probably near the head of the betting market; and the ‘speculative’ selection will normally be at a higher price in the betting forecast, normally nearer the outsiders than the favourites. I choose a ‘speculative’ selection because of the unpredictability of horse racing.
And it seems to be working rather well, as What Really Wins Money newsletter subscribers can attest.
Yesterday I made only four selections…
In the 1.20 Exeter, the betting forecast looked like this:
1.20 Exeter BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Mixologist, 5/1 Headly´s Bridge, 5/1 Shammick Boy, 13/2 Decoy, 8/1 Cool George, 8/1 Just When, 10/1 Citizenship, 12/1 Look For Love.
My ‘usual’ selection was Decoy. Why? Well, in this race I wanted to avoid the obvious two horses in second and third place.
My usual selection was unplaced.
My speculative selection was Citizenship. I figured out here that when an outsider is priced at just 12/1 in the betting forecast, the race must be quite open.
He won at odds of 15.16.
And on 18 December, the fun didn’t stop!
Here’s how I approach the day…
My first step is to note down the 8/9-runner races that day, and take a note of their betting forecast from the Racing Post.
Here are the four 8/9-runner races from 18 December:
12.50 Judlow BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Bobcatbilly, 4/1 Drumlang, 5/1 Cloudy Joker, 6/1 Be All Man, 7/1 Benbens, 8/1 Copper Birch, 8/1 Lord Grantham, 16/1 Kingcora.
2.25 Judlow BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 King Massini, 4/1 Cootehill, 4/1 Rydalis, 7/1 Big News, 8/1 Hatters River, 12/1 Doctor Foxtrot, 16/1Owen Glendower, 16/1 Raduis Bleu.
3.40 Lingfield BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Keene, 3/1 Mick Duggan, 5/1 Echo Brava, 7/1 Mcbirney, 7/1 Royal Marskell, 10/1 Cabuchon, 12/1Celtic Charlie, 12/1 Special Mix.
3.50 Kempton BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Pushkin Museum, 3/1 Green Music, 5/1 Debt Settler, 8/1 Kodafine, 10/1 Royal Brave, 10/1 Wiki Tiki, 12/1 Back On Baileys, 16/1 Douneedahand.
12.50 Ludlow – In the 12.50 Ludlow betting forecast shown above, Cloudy Joker became my usual selection. Note there are no hard and fast rules here. Although there is no form research, sometimes I go to a horse I am drawn to – in this case, the third favourite. On other occasions, my usual selection might be the fourth or fifth favourite.
My speculative selection was the second-biggest-priced horse Lord Grantham. I thought that if the second-biggest-priced outsider was only 8/1, this must be another ‘open race’.
I was in for a big surprise, as my speculative selection was unplaced at Betfair SP odds of 17, but Cloudy joker, the 5/1 betting forecast horse, won at odds of 17 to win and 3.29 to place.
2.25 Ludlow – In this race I noticed the short-priced favourite (as you can see above). As I mentioned last week, a short-priced favourite normally inflates the odds of the other horses.
My usual selection was Rydalis, the third favourite in the betting forecast. My speculative selection was Doctor Foxtrot, the first horse at double-figure odds.
Rydalis placed, which is perfect, and at a place only price of 1.92 (nearly evens), our stakes are pretty much returned. Doctor Foxtrot was pulled up, alas.
3.40 Lingfield – In the 3.40 Lingfield, I selected the third favourite again as my usual selection (you’ll find that the usual selections – i.e. the more obvious horses to place – are normally third, fourth or fifth in the betting forecast). That horse was Echo Brava.
My speculative selection was Cabuchon, the sixth favourite, and again the first horse at double-figure odds.
Echo Brava won at odds of 9.8 to win and 2.63 to place.
Cabuchon was unplaced.
3.50 Kempton – In the final race, I chose Debt Settler as my usual selection, again the third favourite, and Wiki Tiki as my speculative selection, priced at 10/1 in the betting forecast and only two horses away from the outsider.
Neither horse placed.
If you are a member of What Really Wins Money, then please do take a look at these each way blog posts from 18 and 19 December – do make sure you read all of the blog posts, as there are some great strategies which I share for free with newsletter subscribers, such as this each way idea.
For those not subscribed, write to Santa and ask him. Also, why don’t you start going through the race card, make a note of 8 and 9-runner races each day, and look for a ‘usual’ selection (that is, a horse you expect will have a good chance of coming into the first three in the race).
Look then for a ‘speculative’ selection; normally the first horse at double-figure odds, or a horse near the end of the betting market whose odds suggest that the horse is not totally written off (betting forecast odds of a maximum of 12/1).
As you see above, with a bit of luck (as we are doing no form research whatsoever), we can increase our probability of one selection placing at least, and we really get a bonus when they win.
I’ll be expanding on this methodology in January’s mince-pie-bloated edition of the What Really Wins Money newsletter.
Have you figured out your plan of attack for 2014?
Do you have a portfolio of betting systems which you’ll be using in 2014? Does this portfolio have accompanying money management plans?
Are you a horse racing backer? (Or now each way player?) Or a layer? Are you a traditional football punter, or a football in-play trader?
What type of a person are you? Do you want the thrill of the big win, with the negatives of associated long losing runs? Or do you like nice consistent rat-a-tat-tat winners: a high strike-rate and the emotional well-being that brings?
We try and cover all of these angles at What Really Wins Money. For example, I’ve shared with you in this eletter this year:
The 85th-minute-plus rule. Look at in-play football matches after the 85th minute and exploit any apparent ‘shocks’ by backing the red-hot favourite who is not winning ‘late and high’ or laying the outsider who is shockingly winning ‘late and low’. I showcased how I did this to back Benfica (my new favourite team) at odds of 120 in the 92nd minute of their second match of the season against Gil Vicente when they were losing 1-0. They won 2-1, much to my delight.
The each way probability idea above. Try it out for yourself in 8/9-runner races.
Laying the favourite in Irish Bumpers. Now there’s a nice lay system: simple to apply and profiting from a straightforward level stakes laying plan.
Place only backing two horse race favourites. This is the strategy I think which is proving the most popular, and I provide selections for free at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk to newsletter subscribers.
As you see, I try to cover all angles for you, and will continue to do so in 2014.
I’m off this weekend: yes, another fat man with a beard is jetting in to share joy with family and friends (I hope Joy doesn’t mind!)
Have a great Christmas, and I’ll speak to you next Friday (unless my fingers have become so fat from all the gorging that I am unable to type).
Merry Christmas to all.
Read More: The secret to profiting from probability betting…