It’s all gone Ronnie Corbett!
‘My producer…’ No, this isn’t going to be a long convoluted ‘joke’ in the style of the Scottish comedic genius… I am referring, rather, to his size.
Now I am a fully paid-up member of the short-a*s* club so I mean no disrespect. This eletter is simply about shorties!
And by ‘shorties’ I mean short-priced betting opportunities.
I mentioned in past eletters, and indeed explain in great detail in April’s edition of What Really Wins Money, how we can create an ‘evens’ return from three short-priced selections (in a treble).
To remind you, a 1/3 shot, a 1/4 shot and a 1/5 shot together in a treble pay out ‘evens’ (a £10 stake returns £10).
At www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk I have begun listing possible selections at these odds which can form potential trebles.
The strike-rate has been superb but there have been two losing shortlisted selections so far.
Short-priced tennis players have been very consistent recently. And here’s how I research short-priced tennis players… It’s simple really.
- The rankings difference between the two players. The bigger the difference in the rankings the better.
- Head-to-head form. For example, Radwanska yesterday had a 5-1 head-to-head record against her opponent, as did Anna Ivanovic (my new girlfriend!).
Quite simply, list any tennis players priced at 1.3 or lower at www.betfair.com (or your chosen bookmaker).
I also look at short-priced horses. I call these ‘price gappers’. Here’s a quick example of a price gapper…
Simply go to www.racingpost.com and note the following from the Betting Forecast:
Betting forecast: 7/4 Baileys Concerto, 9/2 Wilde Pastures, 5/1 Coeur De Fou, 7/1 Lord Of Drums, 8/1 Call Box, 8/1 Inoogoo, 10/1 Strobe.
The above example shows Baileys Concerto at 7/4, and a big (yes, you guessed) price gap to 9/2 Wilde Pastures.
This infers a strong favourite. We make our probability of success even better by backing the horse to place only, so if he finishes first, second or third (in 8+ runner races), we win!
Make sure you are getting 1.2, 1.25 or 1.33 odds, of course, for the ‘treble’.
And finally there’s the football, where you simply note any team whose odds are around 1.2, 1.25 or 1.33. On Sunday, for example, Celtic are 1.25 shots at home to Inverness.
Find three bets: one at 1.2 (1/5), one at 1.25 (1/4) and one at 1.33 (1/3). Back each of these bets with a fixed stake, and for the second and third bets, add your stake and winnings. If you get these three correct you create an evens payout!
The season draws to an end…
It’s time to tread warily for you football punters. There are teams like Southampton wallowing in mid-table mediocrity, safe as houses and dreaming of their holidays on the Costa del Bournemouth, playing a highly motivated Everton, dreaming of a mathematically probable top-three place!
Then there’s Roma who must keep winning until it’s mathematically impossible to catch Juventus, who currently have an 8-point gap at the top of Serie A, with a possible 12 points remaining this season.
And what of Chelsea, who are between a rock and a hard place? They must beat Liverpool in order to close the gap at the top, but then they have a Champions League match on 30 April. What ever will the ‘Special Needs One’ do?
You might want to speculate on teams who must, must, must win this weekend. It is my contention that must-wins tend to win!
If you’re placing any football bets this weekend, then question teams’ motivation. Crystal Palace will be tough to read now because they have secured Premiership survival.
Do make sure you tune in to my Twitter @whatreallywins for the best stats for this footballing weekend. I’m back to full-steam ahead with research for DRT members so will have stats a-plenty to spread around!
I’ll be looking at the World Cup stats soon for you in the eletter, so tune in soon. We’ll also be taking a look at the horse racing Flat season, which is fully fledged now.
There are many intricacies with races during the Flat season, from Maidens to the effect of the draw. And we’ve got the Irish Flat season to look at, which is dominated by a select group of jockeys and trainers, which I’ll reveal soon.
I’m off now to buy four candles – handles for forks! I may be gone some time!
Have a great weekend!