The market could be key this Cheltenham

The market could be key this Cheltenham

I think this Cheltenham Festival if you are able to following the racing , then a look at the live betting market and a comparitor could prove a fruitful venture.

Money talks at the Cheltenham festival  and this is one way I look at sniffing out a possible market mover.

I compare the betting forecast to the live odds. Why? Well, it does require an assumption that the Racing Post betting forecast is an accurate representation of a horse’s chances.

Take a look at the race below.  Now I look at the betting forecast odds and make a note of any horse whose live market ( bookmaker)  odds are shorter than the betting forecast odds.

Sellingallthetime is 10/1 in the betting forecast and 8/1 with this bookmaker, and Outrath is 6/1 with the betting forecast and 9/2 with the bookies.

These 2 horses I would shortlist. They are also priced for each-way betting.

The bigger the gap between betting forecast and bookie odds, the more excited I become as it may indicate some early money for the horse.

Beware of non runners as they may skew the bookies market.

The market could be key this Cheltenham

We have a significant non runner in Kashmir Peak whose absence will naturally affect the rest of the market. So Tully Touch, 16/1 in the betting forecast and 6/1 with the bookies, may be a false signal, as may Full Irish.

I would use this strategy with 8+ runner races to allow to agreeable each-way playing. I would not use this strategy with significantly short odds non runners.

I like to use a couple of other ‘market reader’ strategies at Cheltenham along with this one, in order to shortlist potential stable gambles.

I’ll show you those next week.

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