The market could be key this Cheltenham
I think this Cheltenham Festival if you are able to following the racing , then a look at the live betting market and a comparitor could prove a fruitful venture.
Money talks at the Cheltenham festival and this is one way I look at sniffing out a possible market mover.
I compare the betting forecast to the live odds. Why? Well, it does require an assumption that the Racing Post betting forecast is an accurate representation of a horse’s chances.
Take a look at the race below. Now I look at the betting forecast odds and make a note of any horse whose live market ( bookmaker) odds are shorter than the betting forecast odds.
Sellingallthetime is 10/1 in the betting forecast and 8/1 with this bookmaker, and Outrath is 6/1 with the betting forecast and 9/2 with the bookies.
These 2 horses I would shortlist. They are also priced for each-way betting.
The bigger the gap between betting forecast and bookie odds, the more excited I become as it may indicate some early money for the horse.
Beware of non runners as they may skew the bookies market.
We have a significant non runner in Kashmir Peak whose absence will naturally affect the rest of the market. So Tully Touch, 16/1 in the betting forecast and 6/1 with the bookies, may be a false signal, as may Full Irish.
I would use this strategy with 8+ runner races to allow to agreeable each-way playing. I would not use this strategy with significantly short odds non runners.
I like to use a couple of other ‘market reader’ strategies at Cheltenham along with this one, in order to shortlist potential stable gambles.
I’ll show you those next week.
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