What a result!
Wednesday was a rare old day for me and my each-way followers… You see, I provide free tips to What Really Wins Money newsletter subscribers at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk, and on 2 July, the betting gods decided to shine on me.
We had winners at 28/1, 13/1, 4/1, and 9/1, as well as a second at 19/1 (remember: with each-way betting, second and third places are important too). Why, even yesterday I selected a horse at odds of 50/1 who finished third. That horse paid out 5/1 for just placing!
All of this is done without any form analysis whatsoever! It really is the lazy man’s secret to each way profits…
I have shared the methodology with you before. Follow these simple steps:
- Shortlist 8/9-runner races (the shortest fields to pay out for three places).
- Go to www.racingpost.com > Cards > Today’s Cards and note the Betting Forecast.
- Here’s the unique bit – make two selections. One is a ‘usual’ and one is a ‘speculative’ selection.
Here’s an example from that lovely Wednesday:
630 Fairyhouse Betting Forecast: 7/4 Cape Wolfe, 11/4 Raston, 7/2 Soebroto, 7/1 Cruidin, 8/1 Looper, 14/1 Agnes Stewart, 50/1 B Cosmos, 50/1 Fomo, 66/1 Jeremy’s Joy.
Here we have a nine-runner race…
Look out for a short-priced favourite in the Betting Forecast (Cape Wolfe) and a few outsiders (here we see B Cosmos, Fomo and Jeremy’s Joy). The hope is that these three outsiders do not play a part. Hey Presto! A nine-runner race is reduced suddenly to a six-runner race for three places.
Now select a ‘usual’ selection. By ‘usual’, I mean a selection which looks to have an obvious place-only chance at least.
And now, select a ‘speculative’ selection. This will be a horse that has a less-than-obvious chance of placing.
My usual selection was Soebroto: as third in the Betting Forecast, I thought the horse had an obvious chance of placing, at least. My speculative selection was Agnes Stewart, the last horse before the obvious 50/1+ odds outsiders.
The result? Agnes Stewart won at Betfair SP odds of 29! Or 28/1! Nice!
Try this out yourself. It has nothing to do with form research, jockey/trainer stats, going, whether the horse has won last time out, etc, etc, etc. This is simply playing the probabilities and it seems to work!
Have you been following my free World Cup research at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk? It’s pointed you to some great betting angles into the round of 16 matches.
I am afraid the research will end today – quite simply, the matches today and onwards are absolute imponderables. I haven’t got a Scooby Doo who’ll win, and no amount of research will unearth the quarter-final winners.
We have had great success backing 0-0 Correct Score before the matches have been played and laying 0-0 Correct Score at half-time, if the score remains 0-0 (which it has done in nearly all of the round of 16 matches).
Will this work again in the quarter finals? Teams do not want to make a mistake…
It seems that tennis trading via www.betfair.com is the best way to profit from Wimbledon. I have been including my tennis trading thoughts for my Delay React Trade subscribers and they have proven to be quite good.
We got Rafael Nadal beaten at odds of 1.06 (£100 bet returns £6 – no thanks!) and we got Maria Sharapova beaten at odds of 1.25.
It seems that the deeper you go into a major tournament, the more vulnerable the very-short-odds players become. How about Serena Williams, Rafael Nadal (as mentioned), and Roger Federer losing the first set against Stan Wawrinka?
Laying at odds of under 1.15 must be encouraged, particularly in the men’s game, as I mentioned in last week’s eletter. The best-of-five-set matches can be a roller coaster ride (as Novak Djokovic after his match with Maron Cilic recently).
I’ll be putting together a set of tennis trading articles in the near future, so look out for these.
I’m off now to raise a glass to Nick Kyrgios. His win over Rafa Nadal ensures I can now afford strawberries and cream two times a day for the foreseeable future.
Have a great weekend!