The art of laying favourites


I hate getting ripped off, and that’s how I felt having just bought

Save £50 instantly

I should have known better. The clues were there: there was no refund policy, no results to see.

If there is a risk-free horse racing strategy out there, it will include one of these elements:

  1. Arbitrages: the ability to create a no-lose ‘book’.
  2. Some way of utilising bookmaker bonuses and the betting exchanges.
  3. Using BOG bookmakers and the betting exchanges.

And that’s it folks: the only real ways to profit risk-free from betting.

It’s with that in mind that I’d like to save you £50. The Betting Profits Formula ebook is about 7 pages and is being sold for £50 – despite the strategy having been given away for free in a recent edition of What Really Wins Money, as well as being given away for free elsewhere online.

So if you want a free version, then email me. It’s public knowledge: you don’t need to give someone 50 quid!

I could have spent that 50 quid on mince pies for the orphans, you know!

The art of laying favourites

Here’s a quick checklist you might like to follow, in order to sniff-out horse racing favourites who are possibly opposable. I will go through each point in depth in future eletters…

  1. Has the horse peaked already in recent races? The Racing Post has special indicators and ratings to help us ascertain this. If a favourite is in decline, it is layable. I used to look at multiple winners in handicaps.
  2. Has the horse ever raced before? These horses are known as ‘maidens’ and are usually 2-or-3-year-olds. We also see these horses in National Hunt Flat races. Horses new to racing are surely vulnerable and an unknown. Any short price about these horses factors in other elements (trainer/stable reputation) rather than proven ability.
  3. Following the ‘debutant’ theme, is the horse running over a new distance for the first time? There may be stamina doubts if the distance is increased.
  4. Is the horse running on a new surface for the first time? Perhaps the horse has exclusively run on turf, and is making its All-Weather debut. We might even see a horse who has exclusively run on a certain All-Weather track, perhaps running at the unique Southwell race course for the first time.
  5. The going is oh-so-important for horses. If a horse is running on heavy ground when not tackling heavy ground before, this is a potential vulnerability. Similarly, good ground may not suit other horses better suited to soft/heavy ground racing.
  6. Logic assumes that a horse racing in a better class of race may be vulnerable against better quality horses than those he has run against previously.
  7. This applies normally to handicap races. I hinted in point 1 about liking to lay multiple winners in handicaps. Why? Well, they may be carrying extra weight – more weight than they have ever carried before. If a short-priced favourite carries a monster weight over 3 miles 2 furlongs over chase fences, would you prefer to back this horse, or lay it?
  8. If a strong favourite has not run for a long time, then it may be ring rusty. Worse yet, there may be a negative reason for the long absence from racing. A long absence is also a ‘gap in the form’. The punter and the betting market don’t really know how the horse will perform on come-back.
  9. Competition: there is perceived competition in a race based on a) the betting market and b) the number of runners. I like to lay in 16+ runner races, because quite simply I have 15 horses running for me against the short-priced favourite. Similarly, if I see a favourite where there is no noticeable price gap between him and the rest of the field, this may indicate competitiveness. (Last week’s eletter looked at laying using price gappers. We don’t want to see a price gap when laying.)

I hope these nine elements will give you food for thought when looking at laying favourites. I will look at each element in-depth in future eletters, so you’ll have a blueprint to laying success.

This time next week, it’s Boxing Day, where we traditionally dress like Chris Eubank in racing boots and a monocle, so I am guessing there will be no eletter next week.

So I’d like to wish you a very Merry Christmas. I’ll try to keep updated during next week if you follow my each-way selections and other betting strategies (free to members!).

I’m off now to send Santa my Christmas list, which includes Kelly Brook, a Ferrari and a Learjet. I have been a good boy this year, Santa, honest.