Long-term readers of my eletters and newsletters know that I love my football stats – my favourite free website is www.soccerstats.com.
They’ve improved again! Go to www.soccerstats.com and check out their stats table.
There’s a new addition there which you should be aware of, and from which you can profit when the new season comes around (it’ll be here before you know it!). I’ve arrowed it below: it’s the ‘both teams scored’ stats…
I like niches and I like quiches. As to niches – well, I love niche betting. Soccerstats already provides some great stats for niche betting in football.
For instance, their half-time scores can help you create a ‘betting niche’ based in the Halftime Score and Halftime Match odds markets in certain football matches.
These ‘both teams scored’ stats can help you in another niche – the Both Teams to Score market (‘BTTS’ for short).
You can begin experimenting now – perhaps select matches where both teams’ ‘both teams scored’ percentage is over 50%?
Free World Cup previews
I love free stuff (and I love www.soccerstats.com – did I tell you? oh, and Kelly Brook, and while the French Open is on, Anna Ivanovic too) and I’ve found a free resource for the World Cup which I think you should read.
The guys at www.tipsterwarehouse.co.uk have put together some really detailed previews for the group stages of the World Cup (it’s only two weeks away folks, remember!)
Under ‘Recent Posts’ you’ll see the other reviews of Groups B, C and D so far. I think these reviews are detailed and an excellent resource for you to make your betting decisions.
And they’re free! Not bad eh!?
For team-by-team analysis, why not read what the boys at Betfair have to say at https://betting.betfair.com/football/, where they analyse some of the teams playing in this year’s World Cup.
I was delighted to see the 1-1 90-minute scoreline for the Champions League Final, just as I predicted in last week’s eletter.
As well as that success, Thomas Bjorn also failed to win the PGA last week, so my 4.4 lay was a success for you bettors and you traders. His odds did rise to 11.5 at one stage on the second day, for those wanting to lock in profit.
It is with golf that I’d like to stick this week. Yes, Rory McIlroy was inspired in winning the PGA last week, but inserted as a 2.64 favourite for the Memorial. You’re having a giraffe mate! I will be laying that 2.64 shot, that’s for sure.
He may win, but surely he is far too short in such an exacting game as golf?
Lions versus llamas
Eng-er-land take on the might of Peru tonight. Will the Peruvians park the llama? I’ve been doing my research for my Delay React Trade service today and here are some pointers for you…
- England have lost two of their last three friendlies versus Chile and Germany.
- The last few times England have scored, the goals have come in the 68th and 79th minutes, 29th, 53rd and 70th minutes, and 82nd minute. In friendlies recently, then, we expect a goal more in the second half than the first?
- Two losses to nil at home ended with an 82nd-minute winner versus Denmark. Are England struggling for goals, or are these friendlies being played with the mentality that they are not must wins?
- Have not won in their last six matches in all competitions.
- Are unbeaten in seven friendlies including three 0-0s in their last six matches. Chile, who beat England, recently beat Peru 3-1 and 3-0.
- Only two defeats in their last 12 away friendlies. Peru have two 0-0s in their last three aways.
What would I take from this? Well, England recently have found it hard to score in the first half.
So back 0-0 pre-match on Betfair at odds of 16 (with trading in mind, rather than leaving that 0-0 bet until 90 minutes) and hope Peru do indeed park the llama(s)?
Peru have two 0-0s in their last three away friendlies, so are adept at parking said llamas in front of goal.
The most popular correct scores on Betfair though, are the 1-1, 2-1 and 3-0 scorelines. Will you side with the market here, or go with what seems to be the Peruvians’ ability to keep some friendlies tight? Remember, Eng-er-land have only scored one goal in their last three home friendlies.
‘Cleared off the line’
Here’s what one reader had to say about yesterday’s each-way selections at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk: ‘I hit the bar both posts and had one cleared off the line = what an unlucky day. Much better than watching odds-on favs getting beat. Only need one to come in and its party time’.
Out of six selections which went to post yesterday, we had a third-placer at odds of 25 to win, and 5.4 to place; a second-placer at odds of 13 to win and 2.19 to place; and the third-placed horse in the same race at odds of 8.76 to win and 1.99 to place.
We also had a third-placer at odds of 18.5 to win and 3.1 to place, as well as a most unlucky fourth-place (by ¾ length) at whopping odds of 46 to win and 8 to place.
Remembering that each way betting is two bets in one (Bet 1 is for the horse to win; Bet 2 is for the horse to place), yesterday was a great example of the power of each way betting. Whilst I didn’t pick a winner, the placed horses provided a return.
As that reader said, it’s much more fun that watching odds-on favourites getting beaten!
You get much more bang for your buck with an each way bet!
Past winners racing analysis…
Before I go, there are some high-quality races tomorrow. Here’s a look at the past winners. Can they provide us with some patterns to follow?
Saturday 31 May 2014
205 Haydock – This Group 3 race has seen only one winning favourite in the last ten runnings. Lay the favourite if short enough?
The last two winners have been at 8/1 and 9/1. Look for similar odds tomorrow and back that 8/1 or 9/1 shot each-way?
David Simcock produced the winner last year with Moment in Time. He runs Moment in Time again this year. Roger Varian managed to win this race in 2011 and 2012. If you think David Simcock can replicate that, then Moment in Time’s your horse.
Eight winners out of 10 have been aged 4 years old.
220 York – This is a listed race and the last three years have seen two favourites win and a 9/4 shot. So it seems that the betting market is accurate in recent times. There are no prices available as I write, so look to the head of the betting if you think this pattern can be replicated this year.
Two trainers have dominated this race recently: John Dunlop has won three of the last six runnings, and Bin Suroor has won the last two years. The latter runs Statutory tomorrow.
The last three winners of this race have been over 4 year olds.
240 Haydock – This is a Group 3 race: it’s a 9-runner race, so what will you be doing? If you answered “Each way betting, Clive”, then go to the top of the class.
Eight/9-runner races are the ideal size for each way betting, as they are the smallest fields to pay out for three places (notwithstanding Betfair’s each way three places, even with non-runners policy).
There was a flurry of three winning favourites in 2008–2010 – two of those were the same horse. Since then, we’ve seen 6/1, 3/1 and 10/1-winners: all decent enough each-way prices.
Last year’s winner, Amarillo, runs again today and I would not be a backer on this occasion. He was a 10/1-winner last year by a short head. So that’s one to cross off the list.
There have only been two double-figure odds winners in 10 years, so I would attack this race by backing a horse under 10/1 but over 4/1, each way, and hope he places at least.
315 Haydock – Another listed race and this one is over 5 furlongs. There have only been five runnings of this race, so insufficient patterns. But the last two winners have been at odds of 10/1 and 12/1, which might provide you with some food for thought.
350 Haydock – This listed race is eight runners and, yes, well said: an ideal each-way race. Three places means any one selection you make only has to beat five horses to place and secure a return for you.
Seven of the last eight winners have been favourites (including a joint-favourite and a co-favourite). The betting market seems to nail this race doesn’t it?
Two of the last four winners have been 5/1, so perhaps look to a 5/1-shot tomorrow and back each way.
As 5/1 has been the biggest-priced winner in 8 runnings, my strategy here would be to look for a horse 4/1 or 5/1, near the head of the betting market and back it each way.
I hope you find this analysis by past winners useful.
I’m off now to hope Rory McIlroy hits his drives like me, to the right and about 150 yards! That way I’ll have a chance of landing that 2.64 lay!
Have a great weekend.