It’s coming home, it’s coming home…
Football’s coming home… Well in about a month’s time. I love my football. And you should too, quite simply because it really wins money!
In the pages of What Really Wins Money (WRWM) over the months, I’ve shared with WRWM subscribers unique and excellent football strategies I think they should try out.
The watchword with the majority of these strategies is ‘low risk, high reward’, which is the driving philosophy behind my Delay React Trade (DRT) service which will be jiggier than a Colombian goal celebration in one month’s time.
August to May is football season: it’s football profit-making season. Enjoy this little glimpse into my football strategies, more details of which can be found in What Really Wins Money…
Halftime niche (full article in September 2013’s edition of What Really Wins Money)
Football is a ‘game of two halves’. Perhaps narrow your focus to the halftime result? Betfair’s Halftime Score and Halftime Match odds markets allow us to focus specifically on what the first-half result will be.
We can be aided here by the new innovation at www.soccerstats.com – its provision for halftime score stats.
By the same token, the second half can be viewed in isolation and turned into a niche of its own. For example, if the match is 0-0 at halftime, and that is an unexpected score line, then lay it!
Or if the score is 0-0 and goals were expected, back Over 2.5 Goals in time for the second half, at far better odds than were available pre-match.
Similarly, there may be a useful niche in laying the halftime score, in the hope for second-half goal action in certain matches.
For the full article on how to lay 0-0 Correct Score at halftime, please download September 2013’s edition of What Really Wins Money and read ‘How to Profit by Placing a Simple Half-Time Bet’
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
As this market suggests, we focus on both teams to score.
This niche can be made more profitable thanks to www.soccerstats.com and their new inclusion of Both Teams to Score market stats.
The Over 2.5 Goals niche
I wrote about this niche in October 2013’s edition of What Really Wins Money. Note here that I did not say ‘the Over/Under 2.5 Goals niche’; rather I honed in on Over 2.5 Goals only.
Here we want to see three goals or more in total in any one match in order for us to profit. (Incidentally, football traders only need the mere hint that there will be over 2.5 goals in order to profit.)
In October 2013’s article I gave you a 5-point strategy which is very accurate in pinpointing matches more likely to feature the 3+ goals we require when betting over 2.5 goals.
Please download this newsletter at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk and see if this is a niche which appeals to you.
Newly promoted niche
Newly promoted sides in the major leagues (Premiership, La Liga, Seria A, Ligue 1) are worth following as a season progresses.
They are more likely to be naturally opposable and could also provide some solid betting patterns and statistics. The Patriarch shared an excellent niche betting strategy in May 2014’s What Really Wins Money and goes into this niche in greater detail in this month’s newsletter.
Top teams niche
Top teams are expected to win a higher proportion of their matches in their prospective leagues. There are a whole wealth of betting strategies which can be applied to this top team’s niche. For instance, why not back all top teams, when not playing each other, in major leagues across Europe each week, in an accumulator? Or do as the Patriarch suggested in May’s What Really Wins Money article?
Top teams show specific patterns too at home and away. The sooner you pick these patterns up, the sooner you can profit from them. A famous pattern is the Jose Mourinho pattern of Chelsea putting together extremely long unbeaten sequences when playing at home.
The latch-onto niche
In April 2014’s edition of What Really Wins Money, I wrote an article called ‘The Hoffenheim Effect’.
Basically we find a team who show consistent betting patterns week in and week out and we latch onto this team. Hoffenheim’s patterns included conceding in all away games, over 2.5 goals in each match, only two clean sheets all season, and a goal at least being scored before halftime.
These teams start showing these characteristics as early as ten matches into a season, allowing you to profit for the last three-quarters of the season.
Established goal scorers who have not scored while playing, for a while
The top goal scorers in the top teams score regularly. It is when they don’t score regularly that you can profit. I’m talking here about the likes of Ronaldo, Messi, Ibrahimovic, Sergio Aguero, Carlos Teves, and Kevin Doyle (only joking there!).
If these players are playing consistently in the first team, and go on a run of three or more matches without a goal, start backing them to score.
Underdog scores first
This is the essence of DRT. Do watch out for a special offer for new DRT subscribers in time for the new football season in August.
Hark back to our ‘top teams’ niche. Imagine a top team has conceded the first goal, when expected to win. We can, thanks to the in-play markets, back the top team a goal down and hope they recover – as they should (a recent relevant example being the Ivory Coast 0-1 down against Japan, recovering to win 2-1).
Squawka.com – in-play stats – shots on target/off target, corners, possession, momentum (MAY 2014 WRWM)
This 2014 I also introduced you to this free website and how you can profit in-play from its stats, specifically the shots on/off target, corners and possession stats.
Sometimes these stats will unearth teams who are obviously dominating a match, despite the match perhaps being 0-0.
This is a new niche I have been looking at. With the Halftime/Fulltime markets, we are looking at a bet combining the first-half result and the second-half result. For instance, I recently layed England/England when they played Italy in the World Cup in June. The odds were 4.7.
As long as England drew or lost the first half, then I won the bet. If England won the first half, I would win my lay if they lost at fulltime.
This is a niche I like to look at for laying the Halftime/Fulltime results. By laying one specific result, we have a number of other permutations ‘running for us’. Oftentimes, this lay can be over by halftime.
Lay the draw
‘Ahhh, this ol’ chestnut’, I hear you mutter. Laying the draw is not dead and buried. It is an excellent niche which you can profit from if you choose your matches carefully.
Another way to profit from laying the draw is to wait until the match goes in-play. I refer to the ‘85th minute’ and ‘2-2’ niches earlier. Lay any draw in matches which are unexpectedly draws and one team is expected to win.
The curse of the Champions League
Some teams prioritise the Champions League above all else, particularly at the business end of the tournament.
Here’s an extract from a recent What Really Wins Money eletter:
Let’s go back to September 2013. Chelsea were due to play Basel on 18 September. Before that match, they had an away match against Everton. They lost 1-0.
On 1 October 2013, Chelsea were due to play Steaua in the Champions League. Before that match, they played Tottenham away. They drew 1-1.
On 2 November 2013, Chelsea were due to play Schalke in the Champions League. Before that match, they played Newcastle away. They lost 2-0.
On 7 December 2013, Chelsea were due to play Steaua in the Champions League. Before that match, they played Stoke City. They lost 3-2.
It took a 90th minute goal for Chelsea to beat Everton in the match directly before their Champions League match against Galatasary on 26 February 2014.
And this week, they beat Galatasary 2-0 at home. In their Premiership match before this match, they lost 1-0 to Aston Villa.
Other teams such as Borussia Dortmund and Barcelona tended to lose matches which ordinarily they’d stroll through, all because these league matches occurred just before a mid-week Champions League match.
This could be a great niche for this new season. Note that some of Chelsea’s matches were away from home… So perhaps we should look to oppose major teams who are playing a league match just before a mid-week Champions League match, particularly if they are playing away from home in the league match.
Whilst not being a niche per se, I wrote at length in November 2013’s What Really Wins Money about a superb free football software tool which you should use.
It is called the Soccerstats tracker and is found at www.soccerstatstracker.com. It is a free statistical tool, which provides a huge array of statistics covering the major leagues.
Full details can be found at their website. I would urge you to download this software (the price is right!!) and take a statistical slant towards your football punting.
I hope you find these ideas useful. There are a couple of others which I must keep for my DRT customers.
With the World Cup over, I hope it has renewed your interest in football and I hope that some of these ideas are useful to you.
Have a great weekend!