Goodness me! There’s some top-class racing this weekend, as Newmarket’s Guineas meeting starts and is matched by some Group 3 races in Leopardstown on Sunday.
I do like looking at 10-year trends for these major races.
On Saturday we have the 2000 Guineas and here are the major trends, noting too that the Irish have won 8 of the last 14 runnings…
Let’s look for the horses that…
- Won on its race course debut, and had a Racing Post Rating of 79+. At racingpost.com click on the particular horse’s name, and the Racing Post Rating (RPR) is shown next to each race. Qualifiers here include Barney Roy, Dream Castle, Eminent, and Larchmont Lad.
- Ran on at least three occasions or remains unbeaten. So of the above four horses, Barney Roy and Eminent remain.
- Won at least twice – Barney Roy and Eminent again qualify.
- Had a Racing Post Rating of at least 110 last race – again Barney Roy and Eminent qualify.
- Unbeaten at Newmarket – Eminent qualifies there.
- Won a group race – Barney Roy and Eminent qualify.
- Won the National Stakes and/or Coventry and Dewhirst – neither horse qualifies here.
- Won over 7 furlongs or a mile – again Barney and Eminent qualify.
- Trained in Ireland – neither horse qualifies on this count: Churchill, Lancaster Bomber, Spirit of Valour are the three that do.
Barney Roy and Eminent seem to tick a lot of boxes and as second and third-favourites currently, are backable each-way against the Aidan O’Brien favourite Churchill.
Let’s move on to Sunday and the ladies in the 1000 Guineas. The trainers will have ensured these fillies are not distracted by asking Newmarket council to shut down any handbag or shoe shops for the duration of the meeting.
The 1000 Guineas trends are as follows…
- Won last time (with a Racing Post Rating of 108 or higher) – Daban, Hydrangea, Rhododendron.
- Has won a group or listed race – Daban, Hydrangea, Rhododendron.
- Won over 7 furlongs or a mile – all three qualify here.
- Won at Newmarket, or debuting at Newmarket – Daban and Rhododendron are the two here.
- French-trained or trained by Aidan O’Brien – Hydrangea and Rhododendron for Percy Thrower, sorry, I mean Aidan O’Brien.
- Won either the Moyglare, Nell Gwynn, Cheveley Park of the 1000 Guineas trial in Leopardstown – Hydrangea and Rhododendron qualify here.
- Debuting in 2017 or finished in first-two in a 1000 Guineas trial – Rhododendron,
The good news is that there is a strong candidate in Rhododendron. The bad news is that the market knows this and the horse is a current 2/1 favourite!
I personally might go each way on Daban and Hydrangea here at far better odds.
Good luck if you play. Do remember for these major races that a simple search for ‘past trends’ can be very revealing.
Enjoy the Guineas weekend!