The new golf season is upon us as the stars head out to the Middle East. Golf is a sport I am keen to tackle, both as a hobby and as a betting medium.
I’ve been tracking a couple of golf tipsters and think personally that we if aim for low risk consistent pay-outs, rather than trying to pick a winner in a field of 150+ golfers, we’ll have a greater chance of success.
I admit, I play golf a lot like Woods – Victoria Woods – and know that accuracy is all. A few centimetres out can be catastrophic. It is this attention to detail which makes selecting a winner (at the tempting huge odds) so difficult.
This week, I’ll start recording some ideas, such as participating in three-ball betting and top-10 finish betting. I think the key to success could be in this three-ball betting market. Here’s how a three-ball betting market looks at www.betfair.com:
If we lay Rory McIlroy, for instance, at 2.18, we have Stephen Gallacher and up-and-coming young rookie Tiger Woods playing for us. Eighteen holes is a long way, with many shots and putts required. An errant drive from young Rory can open up the match for last year’s tournament winner Gallacher, or Tiger Woods.
I am always attracted to laying in three-outcome markets (as you’ll see later with Bayern Munich), because you always have two other outcomes running for you.
I’ll be keeping track of the performance of the shortest priced three-ball player and see if we have a good laying angle into the game of golf. Stay tuned… Oh, and ‘FORE!’ – I’m just about to hit an iron shot!
Laying the 0-0 score line – a new approach
I’ve been a busy DRT’er this week (DRT stands for Delay, React, Trade which is my philosophy for in-play football trading).
We had a particularly successful live chat football trading mid-week, as I added another 1.06 lay success to my growing collection, and another player to my Christmas list.
The match in question featured Stuttgart v Bayern Munich. Stuttgart scored first. Time to lay them, as we expect Bayern Munich to get back into the match.
And indeed they do. The score is 1-1.
And the score remained 1-1. This is most unlike Bayern Munich, who are so dependable.
80 minutes. It’s still 1-1… 90 minutes It’s still 1-1…
Now my interest piques. I delay, and delay, and then pounce. I lay the draw at odds of 1.06 (meaning that for every £6 risked, the potential profit is £100). And I tell my live chatters to do the same!
And lo and behold, this is what happens…
Thanks Mr. Alcantara!
And there’s more! How to back a 1.12 shot at 5.3 (4/1)
It was a good week for DRT. Those of you who followed the FA Cup couldn’t help but notice Watford beating Man City by two goals to nil until the 59th minute (much to the delight, no doubt, of Elton John and husband David Furniture-Polisher).
Cue the comeback of all comebacks: Manchester City, at home, 2-0 down? No way!
So back them! They were available to back, in-play, at odds as high as 5.3 (just over 4/1), which, given there was over 30 minutes of football to play, was another Chinese New Year present! Oh, and Manchester City won 4-2.
It is matches like these where you make the big money. And it’s matches like these which I highlight in my DRT live chats.
Do take a trial run, if you’d like. I do hours and hours of research for you, and provide live commentary most weekends as we dig out the big winners.
As an aside…
As a spin-off of DRT, I have taken a new look at 0-0 laying. This looks to be a great market to focus on. After all, which team plays for a 0-0? (Apart from Crystal Palace that is, although they play for 0-0, but win 1-0 under Tony Pulis.)
The problem with laying 0-0s is the size of the odds. So why not look at the 0-0 Halftime Score market?
The odds tend to start at about 4.1 or just over (and will be a little bigger for your Barcelonas and Real Madrids).
And there’s some stats to help you out. Go to my trusty companion www.soccerstats.com: there is an actual column devoted to halftime score lines… Here it is:
As a 0-0 halftime layer, you want to see goals before halftime. What can you see with Arsenal? I can see five 0-0s in their last seven matches at halftime. So perhaps Arsenal are not an ideal team to focus on for halftime 0-0 lays?
At the bottom of www.soccerstats.com there is a table devoted to halftime score lines for home and away sides…
I’ve started to list matches and their odds when I think there will be a goal before halftime. So far, so good. This could be a good niche you could work. The Halftime Score market is found at www.betfair.com, within in-play football coupon matches.
Here’s another trick to reduce your risk. Wait. Delay.
Wait for 15 minutes and if the match is still 0-0, lay 0-0 halftime score at much lower odds than pre-match.
Give it a try. I’ll be reporting back on my performance soon and may start posting the selections at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk.
And for you horsey folk
I shared an idea with you recently regarding the All Weather venues (look at today’s racing card and you’ll see four different All Weather venues).
A simple idea was to lay the favourite in the worse performing races for favourites at All Weather venues.
It’s easy to find a qualifying race:
Click on ‘FAVOURITES’, and in the box which pops up, look for the race type with the smallest percentage of winners. At Lingfield, therefore, two-year-old handicaps (known as ‘nurseries’) and four-year-old handicaps would be the races to focus on.
Sixteen of the last 20 favourites have lost their races. Do note that as we are dealing with favourites, there will be clusters of winners, but long-term, this idea is proving profitable.
Paper trade if you like, and see for yourself; and if you’re a member of What Really Wins Money, I post selections for free at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk.
I’m off now. Watch out for those short-priced teams getting into all sorts of trouble this weekend, and make sure you pounce when they do.
Have a great weekend… ‘FORE!’ – I hit yet another errant iron shot.