Nice of Mr O’Brien to oblige with Sergei Prokoviev last Friday. His selections for the 15:35 were second and fifth: the second triggering a place payout for each-way players.
Astronomer was chinned in the 16:10 into second: another each way place payout.
On the Saturday, in the 14:25 Newmarket, Circus Maximus again triggered a place payout for each-way players with a third place. Western Australia finished fourth at 12/1, just outside the places.
The Racing Post is your friend in uncovering angles like this.
Look at how many of these O’Brien horses were vying for the win. At a typical race card at www.racingpost.com, click on the trainer’s name, and then filter by today’s conditions (so for me last weekend it was Aidan O’Brien, GB Flat [as distinct from Ireland], last five seasons, and that spectacular 40.33 points profit would have accrued).
A sumptuous race card at Ascot, but no Aidan O’Brien two-year-olds alas!
When you see Group 1 and Group 2 races as we see at Ascot, think ‘past trends’. I have mentioned it before. It is a great way to ‘get and angle in’, particularly with these high-class races.
A simple and free resource is www.thestatsdontlie.com. Hover your mouse over ‘Horse Racing’, ‘Flat’, then Group 1, Group 2 or Group 3, as you see it.
Four Group 1 races tomorrow. I have chosen the 14:40 Fillies and Mares.
This is what you’ll see at the website. It really is simple to find patterns.
My first point-of-call is the price. We see only two winners since 2006. Both were joint-favourites.
We see a three-year recent trend in second or third-favourites winning.
We have seen four winners priced between 12/1 to 16/1, so if you wanted an each-way play, focus on these odds.
Five times has stalls 10-12 won.
No trainer has won the race twice in a row.
So what you’ll be looking to do now is to consider whether you will:
? Go with the three-year trend of second and third-favourites.
? Look to see if a second or third-favourite runs from stalls 10, 11 or 12.
? Ignore any Aidan O’Brien runner this time!
Second-favourite Coronet is the nearest to hitting these trends, drawn though in stall 8.
Lah Ti Dar is the short-priced favourite, but on past trends is layable. And you’ll not be invoking a high liability.
Try this for the other Group 1 and 2 races and practice this form of past winner trends race-reading.
It can point you towards horses who best fit past winner trends.
And I hope I have shown you that each-way betting pays off. You saw with the O’Brien two-year-olds that you at least got a pay-out for the places!
Before I go, you might want to consider laying some of the big teams this weekend in the footy.
Why? We have just ended the international break and the Champions League is about to come.
Create value by laying teams affected, particularly if they score first.
The last time we were sandwiched like this in the football, the big names dropped like flies!
Man Utd look prime; Liverpool are away so may hiccup (doubt it though, Huddersfield are pants); Tottenham are away in a London derby (prime candidates for the lay); Man City are at home to a Burnley finding their feet (they may surprise); PSG play Amiens at home; Dortmund away to Stuttgart; Bayern Munich away; Roma play a very defensive Spal; Juventus at home to a sometime-tough-to-breakdown Genoa; Real Madrid at home to Levante; Atl Madrid away; and Barcelona at home.
These big names have international players returning, Champions League up-coming and managers wondering how to cope! We’ll see if they fall foul.
Have a great weekend!
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