I hope you’ll join me in my new quest in life: it’s to petition for some horses’ heads to be lengthened. The horses in question will only be those horses I have backed each-way of course!
Take Wednesday for instance. After a bit of a lean period with my free each way selections at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk, I continued to plug away, hoping a big-priced winner was but a race away.
Well, I nearly hit my second 100/1-winner with my each ways. It was the 830 Gowran Park, a race I typically look at for each way purposes. Why? Well, let me show you the betting forecast…
830 Gowran Park Betting Forecast: 4/5 Sierra Sun, 9/4 Chicago Girl, 100/30 Diylawa, 12/1 Ceylon, 33/1 Nanamour, 50/1 Sunrise J, 66/1 Dandysteps, 66/1 Hammana Queen.
It is a good race for each way betting (to remind you, each way betting is effectively two bets: half the stake on the horse to place only (the first three in an eight-runner race) and half the stake on the horse to win only).
Why was the above race a good race for each way betting?
Firstly, eight-runner races are ideal, as it’s the shortest field which pays out for three places for the place only part of the each way bet.
Secondly, look at the betting forecast. There are three horses over 50/1. Can we assume that these three horses will play no part with the win and place only element of this race?
If that assumption is correct, we have on our hands a possible five-horse race for the three places. Would you agree? My selections in this particular race were Ceylon and Nanamour.
In a five-horse race, I choose to back the two outsiders, in the hope horse racing continues to be unpredictable. The result? Ceylon was third at odds of 18.12 on Betfair, and Nanamour was second, by a head, at odds of 110!
To say I was disappointed would be an understatement.
Incidentally, the each ways seem to have found their feet again. I think I know the reason behind their poor performance. It’s a rule us betting folk have, and it is this: ‘As soon as you begin proofing any service, your performance begins to look as if a two-year-old is picking the horses.’
So, I began proofing at www.racing-index.com and thereafter I couldn’t pick my own nose, let alone a winner.
As soon as I have stopped proofing, things have improved. Mother Nature and her laws eh?
Yesterday, for instance, saw winners at odds of 16, 3.85 and 8.6, with second-placers at odds of 15, 10.88 and 21 (to name but three).
So if you have a service and you start to proof it, be prepared for the inevitable. It’s like my krypton!
These each ways are at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk: I hope the mini revival continues, and those second-placers by a head turn into winners.
It is a timely lesson in expectation. There is a service called Victor Value Racing, which I review for the What Really Wins Money newsletter. This service is reliant on big-priced winners. It’s what I call a ‘faith-based service’. Subscribers need faith that the tipster will pick another big-priced winner after the inevitable losing runs that come with the kind of odds the tipster is targeting.
www.price-power.com is another example. This tipster focuses on only tipping horses priced at 10/1 or higher. As you can imagine, there are long losing runs, and if you start in January, you might not see a profit until May or June!
This requires a lot of faith. Yet each year, www.price-power.com ends the year comfortably in profit. It is a sight to behold!
WRWM under construction…
There’s a great article in time for the new football season, which kicks off on Saturday. It’s an article about streaks and sequences and how you can profit from them. The ideal, of course, is to be there at the start of a sequence and ride it until its conclusion. Then there is the other angle: to anticipate when a very long streak or sequence will end, and profit that way.
Sequences and football are happy bed-fellows. There are teams who can go a whole season falling within the parameters of a certain sequence. I have written before about the marvel that was Hoffenheim last season. How about Liverpool and the uncanny ability for at least one goal to show up in their matches before halftime?
From a horse racing perspective, it’s a very much handicap-based newsletter this month. I’ve uncovered a number of handicap-based betting strategies which are proving to be quite profitable, and our very own Statman shows you how you can profit from backing, and laying, top-weighted horses in handicaps.
With the winter All-Weather season due to kick off quite soon, I’ve also covered some interesting angles for the All-Weather venues specifically.
The Patriarch uncovers a hidden gem within the Racing Post newspaper that has him very excited with the profit-making potential. He also advocates certain bookmaker ‘specials’ from which you can reasonably profit.
The Patriarch ‘bigging up’ bookmakers! I think he has caught too much sun between newsletters and it’s frazzled his brain.
And afore ye go!
I can’t leave you without mentioning the new season, about to kick off tomorrow. Louis van Seagull takes over at Manchester United, such a short price against Swansea, who failed to beat any of the top nine teams last season home or away.
Arsenal face Crystal Palace side which collected nine 0-0s at halftime away from home last season. And what do Palace go and do, to make life easier for themselves? They allow Tony Pulis to leave. Expect this Arsenal side to punish the foolhardy board?
Leicester City are at home to an Everton side who finished fifth last season, yet have failed to win a single pre-season match (including a 1-0 loss to, guess who? – Leicester City).
As you can tell, I am like a pig in muck when it comes to football and stats.
My new DRT service (Delay React Trade) is gearing up for this new season, after a seven-hour marathon live chat last Saturday (which I must admit flew by).
There’ll be more profit making this weekend in the live chats.
If you don’t want to benefit from my huge experience and research, then here’s a tip for you… Learn how to read the in-play stats!
I provide this service free to my live chatters using a special live feed, but you can do this yourself at websites such as www.squawka.com and www.bet365.com. The former is excellent in providing free stats for the major leagues and I heartily recommend it.
Visit it, get to know its lay out, and look for the ‘Momentum’ graph and the standard in-play stats. I have mentioned it before, but I would recommend you home in on:
- Shots on and off target – the team with an overwhelming number of shots on and off target are logically most likely to score first. Last weekend, a team called Dnipro had 11 shots on target in the first half of their match. The match was 0-0 at halftime. Their shots on target increased to about 14 before they scored the first of a quick double. How can you profit? Lay the 0-0. Back Dnipro. Back 2-0 while the match is 0-0. There are so many options when stats like this are so outstanding.
- Corners – for me a team with more corners (and I mean substantially more corners) than their opponents could signal the likelihood of a goal at some stage. They are in the right part of their opponent’s half aren’t they (the attacking third)? Also, with corners, if there have been some ten corners in total, and a match is still 0-0, I see this as a sign that a goal might be forthcoming in this match.
- Possession % – you can’t score if you don’t have the ball. Start to get interested when a team is consistently showing 60%+ possession. I have seen teams show 65–70% possession in some matches.
All three of these stats tend to work in tandem. Use them at sites such as www.squawka.com. I like to use them to pick off 0-0s at halftime. Strong in-play stats can help you make a reasonably intelligent guess at the 0-0 halftime matches which are unlikely to end 0-0 at fulltime. The strike-rate is quite high.
If you want further information on www.squawka.com, then do read the recent article I wrote in What Really Wins Money, or email me and I’ll give you an overview of the website and what you should be looking out for.
Coffee – check! Remote control for TV hidden from girlfriend – check! Ensure girlfriend has organised a girly shopping day, beginning 12.45 p.m. Saturday and lasting for as long as possible – check!
And welcome to a new season, and new profits! June’s What Really Wins Money shared plenty of football niche betting strategies, as did a recent eletter. Which ones caught your fancy? Let me know.
Or just join me at DRT where I’ll do all the work!
Have a great weekend. I’ll be cheering on Wolves – European dominance is but a heartbeat away!