Did you enjoy last weekend? An early Chelsea goal in the F.A. Cup final had me licking my lips for my 2-1 and 1-2 scorelines, but Man Utd limped yet again in front of goal. What a pity.
In the Lokinge Stakes, I gave a shortlist of Rhodadendron, Addeybb, Lancaster Bomber and Deauville each way. We got a first and 10/3 and third at 10/1 amongst the each-way horses.
The standout race this weekend is the Irish 2000 Guineas, the 16:10 Curragh on Saturday. Looking at past winners, and since 2017, the highest-odds winner was 5/1. Dare we focus on the head of the market?
There are currently only three horses which qualify at odds of 5/1 and lower: Elarqam, US Navy Flag and Gustav Klimt.
Aidan O’Brien, yes the winning trainer of the Lokinge, has won four of the last seven runnings of the Irish 2000 Guineas.
Eleven of the last 16 winners were drawn in stall four or lower. The four horses therefore are Elarqam, Zihba, Theobald and Landshark.
US Navy Flag is in stall 7, with Gustav Klimt in stall 9.
Fourteen of the last 16 winners ran at Newmarket last time out. This brings in Elarqam, and Gustav Klimt from the shortlists.
Based on these past trends, Elarqam and Gustav Klimt are the two selections each-way, with Elarqam hitting most of the trends.
I do not have the past trends for the Irish 1000 Guineas on Sunday, nor do I have any jockey bookings. Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore have won two of the last four runnings. Back their horse each way?
From the classics to a classic
Two big matches this weekend catch the eye. Fulham and Aston Villa play for the Premier League! This match tends to be tight, with a single goal tending to be all that is needed. Backing 0-0 for me is the value play here, as neither side will want to concede first in such an important match. I tend to cash out by halftime.
Real Madrid and Liverpool looks like a classic in the making! How to play this match? Knowing Liverpool’s history, make sure you lay Real Madrid if they lead 2-0 in this match!
There’s a strong trend towards both teams scoring and Over 2.5 Goals, albeit not in FINAL conditions in the competition. Liverpool is averaging 3+ goals a game and tending to score first in their Champions League matches.
So, 1-1 at 9.4 odds appeals (as Real Madrid had two recent 1-1 finals vs their Madrid neighbours), as well as a gung-ho 3-2 and 2-3 at 22 and 25 odds. I see those as value calls and encapsulate both teams scoring.
Good luck, however you play. Have a great weekend and remember it’s Roland Garros – the French Open – tennis on Sunday. Dig out my old eletter on Wozniacki for a great angle into how to profit from Grand Slam tennis.