Sunday was just one of those days with my DRT live chat last weekend. Every football trading opportunity mentioned came in. Heck, if Kelly Brook was around and I asked her on a date, she’d have said ‘yes’.
If you are a member of www.drt.club and have the time at the weekend, do come along to the live chats. When I get it right, well, I get it right! If you’re not a member, and you like football, then try it out for 30 days.
I mentioned in the last couple of eletters about the potential of laying first-round leaders in golf championships.
So, let’s see if Brandon Grace, at odds of 1.6, will be leading come Sunday in the Alfred Dunhill Championship.
There is no leader at a short price in the Thailand Golf Championship. Tommy Fleetwood is 5.6 to lay, but those odds are too high. Will he be winning on Sunday?
In the Franklin Templeton Shootout, Day/Tringale are 2.84 to lay this Friday. Will they be leading on Sunday (if this is a conventional four-round Championship)?
This is a different take on the sports trading I have been mentioning in recent eletters. This is tournament trading. It does involve a greater investment of time in order to reap the rewards.
Other forms of tournament trading includes The Premiership, all of the major football leagues, tennis tournaments, and Rugby Six Nations for example.
Imagine if you had opposed Dortmund this season in the Bundesliga league winner market: you would be delighted that they were rock bottom of the league!
Tournament trading means we take a position at the beginning of a tournament. Say we want to lay Roger Federer or Andy Murray to win Wimbledon (as long as their odds are short enough) – if they falter at any stage or do not reach the final, we profit well.
At the moment I want to focus on tournament trading with the golf. Already Rory McIlroy has lost two championships at odds of 3 or less. Golf is such as exacting sport that one error will let in a large field of able golfers in.
We’ll see on Sunday how those mentioned above fare. I will certainly keep a note of the odds of leaders of championships on a Friday morning. Season long, I wonder if we can profit from laying these leaders?
I spoke last week about odds-on laying. I concluded that if you want to profit better from laying odds-on shots (that is horses in our example under the odds of 2.00), then using a fixed liability is the way to go.
A fixed liability stake is fixed at a specific amount, say £10. You know that £10 is your maximum risk at any one time. The neat thing about odds-on laying though, is that when you get a correct lay, your returns are always greater than your stake.
Take a look at this strategy I am experimenting with presently:
This is a graph representing the current profit from laying horses in the Place Only market. On the right-hand side of the screen, we see a 40% strike rate. We see average odds of 1.65, and we see, after 377 bets, a betting bank of £619, from a starting £100 betting bank.
This is a betting idea currently. I do hope it continues long-term. Here’s how I make selections, for anyone interested…
Here’s an example of a possible selection:
It’s a simple idea. Make sure the race has the word ‘HANDICAP’ in the title at www.racingpost.com. Now look at the Betting Forecast. Make sure there is a pronounced gap between the first named horse and the second named horse in terms of odds. Here, Lochnell at 5/2 and 9/2 Prettyasapicture sees a decent gap in the odds.
Your job now is to lay Lochnell in the to Place Only market. As this is a fixed liability strategy, we have the luxury of being able to use Betfair SP to place bets as soon as selections are found.
As you can see, the profit figure is exciting. It’s early Diana Dors at the moment but the promise is there. I will start providing selections at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk for newsletter readers.
There are plentiful odds-on opportunities. With football fresh in my mind, how about laying odds-on shots in ‘dead rubbers’ in European competition? Teams who don’t need to win, rarely do. Tennis is also a great game for odds-on shots who simply don’t perform.
I’ll be compiling a daily list of what I hope are vulnerable odds-on shots over the coming months. Remember, we only need a 40% strike rate in order to profit with the magic formula of odds-on shots and fixed liability.
There is a superb jumps meeting at Cheltenham today and tomorrow. Let’s take a look at the past winners in tomorrow’s race card to see if we can predict future trends.
Saturday 13 September
1230 Cheltenham – This is a four-runner novice chase so there is limited competition for the favourite. Paul Nicholls has won four of the last six runnings and Vivaldi Collonges is his provisional runner here.
This is a race for the market. The biggest-priced recent winner was 3/1. Do note that the favourite has not won in the last three runnings, so value might be in the second-favourite, particularly if it is Vivaldi Collonges.
105 Cheltenham – This is a conditional jockeys handicap chase. As you might suspect, there has not been a winning favourite in nine runnings. The last four races have seen 17/2, 15/2, 12/1 and 5/1 winners. The biggest-priced winner has been 14/1 so this is not a race for a real outsider.
There have been six different trainers winning in the last six races, so perhaps look for a horse, not the favourite, between 5/1 and 14/1, trained by someone other than Evan Williams, Venetia Williams, Dr Richard Newland, Charlie Mann, Caroline Keevil, Philip Hobbs and Brendan Powell. This should provide a shortlist for you.
140 Cheltenham – This is a class 3 handicap Hurdle race. Eight runners should have you thinking ‘each way play’. Apart from 2008 and 2006, the winner has been between the odds of 2/1 and 8/1. In recent years the winner has been between the odds of 11/4 and 8/1. The last two winners were 9/2 and 4/1 and they seem reasonable odds for each way betting.
Shortlist a 9/2-horse in the betting tomorrow each way.
210 Cheltenham – This is a grade 3 handicap chase. Ten runners is on the cusp of each way betting. Tom Scudamore has won the last two runnings of this race. He runs Standing Ovation tomorrow, and that should be a reasonable price for each way betting. The jockey has obvious positives about this race associated in his mind, and that could help him.
The winner comes usually at odds of between 11/4 and 13/2, so make these odds your first point of call when the market is formed properly tomorrow. Speculators may note a couple of winners at 10/1 and 11/1. Cheeky each way on a horse at those odds?
240 Cheltenham – This is the cross-country handicap chase. And when I think of this, I think of Enda Bolger, not to be mixed up with Edna Krabappel. Indeed, as I thought, Bolger has won five of the nine runnings, and he runs Keep on Track and Quantitative Easing. His winners have been either favourites or priced at 6/1. So look for either of these two horses to fall within those categories.
The market pretty much has this race well-read. The highest-priced winner in recent history has been 6/1, so look no further than the head of the market for the possible winner. Each way would always be advised at 9/2 or higher.
Four of the last five winners have carried 11 stone 10 lbs or higher, so look for a combination of 6/1 or lower and over 11 stone 10 lbs.
315 Cheltenham – This is a class 2 Hurdle. Ten runners suggests each way betting. Tony McCoy has won the last two runnings of this race, and he does not have a ride. The only recent winner with a ride is Barry Geraghty on board Peckham Echo
Two favourites have won the last three runnings. The last winner bucked the trends. The first horse 10 years old to win and the first horse under 140 RPR to win in eight runnings.
The final race is the 345 Cheltenham, a seven-runner novices Hurdle. Tony McCoy has won in three of the last four runnings and he does not ride here. Nicky Henderson has won three of the last five runnings and his Clondaw Banker might be worth a punt.
I hope you find these ‘past winners’ trends useful.
Next week I will be looking at laying horses and will discuss some of the best ways in which to sniff out a vulnerable favourite.
Enjoy Cheltenham, and have a great weekend. And any DRT members, I hope to see you at the weekend.
Have a great weekend.