May is the definitive Turf Flat season start . I wanted to look at the performance of 2 -year old favourites in this month specifically, over the last 10 years.
I think there will be a huge number of 2-year old débutantes in May. Horses often described as ‘green’ may be vulnerable.
Well, over the last 10 years, had you backed each 2-year-old favourite you’d have made 17 points profit to Betfair SP.
Let’s look a little deeper.
In May, on the turf only, backing 2 year old favourites in 5 furlong races produced a 25.5 point profit to Betfair SP . Dare we infer that 2 year olds bred for speed fair extremely well in this first month proper of the turf flat season?
3 courses stand out for backing 2 year old favourites in May.
York, Thirsk and Naas, have shown 17, 13 and 9 points profit to Betfair SP and 15, 13 and 8 points profit to Industry SP ( I.e. the bookmaker’s odds).
Number of Runners
8 and 12 runner races stand out for favourite backers in 2 year-old races. 28 and 19 points profit in May over the last 10 years to Betfair SP. I tend to add weight to the results if this is mirrored to Industry SP ( which it is). 23 and 16 points profit.
11 runner races show a 13 point profit laying these 2 year old favourites to level stakes.
Days Since Last run
2 year old favourites running in May on the turf tend to perform better if they have previously run this turf Flat season.
16 days since last run – 23 points profit Betfair SP. 21 points profit Industry SP
15 days since last run – 13 points profit Betfair SP. 12 points profit Industry SP
So, pretty much, in May, look for favourites in 2 year old races who have previously run either 15 or 16 days ago.
Trainers in May
Richard Fahey and Kevin Ryan are the 2 trainer with a solid 10 year record in May with 2 year old favourites.
23 and 14 points profit. Fahey, interestingly, has a really strong win record post 20th May for the last 3 years. That may be coincidence. I am not sure.
6 winners in his last 8 runnings in May over the last 3 years for Kevin Ryan. So pay attention to these 2 when their 2 year olds are favourites in May.
Finding 2 year old races in May.
Go to www.racingpost.com.
Click On Cards
Select Course, then EXPAND ALL
Ignore all jumps and all-weather courses and look for races on the turf flat where the age is bracketed ( 2 yo)
Then run the favourites in these 2 year old turf flat races in May against the above criteria.
I am particularly drawn by the following points when considering backing favourites in 2 year old races on the turf flat.
- The records of Fahey and Ryan as trainers.
- 15 and 16 days since last run.
Where you see a number ( such as 62 above ) this indicates the days since last run.
- 8 and 12 runner races
- 5 furlong races.
I hope you find this article of use . May is knocking on the door and 2 year-old races are a real niche to work during this first full month-proper of the Flat Season.
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