This week there’s one sporting event getting a lot of press. Yes it’s the Ryder Cup, where football anchorman Steve Ryder takes on Shaun Ryder from the Happy Mondays in an epic golf battle.
Or maybe it’s the other Ryder Cup match between Europe and the USA.
Well, you know I’m a stats man, so what stats can we find for this year’s Ryder Cup?
Europe have won seven of the last nine Ryder Cups and haven’t lost on home soil for 21 years. Now those are some solid stats!
But, before you sell your grandmother and put everything on a European win, remember the ‘Miracle of Medinah’ and the comeback at Celtic Manor in 2010. What does that tell me?
It tells me to take a few trading positions here!
Here’s the Win Only market:
It’s going to be a slog to win this Ryder Cup, so I will lay Europe at 1.58 odds. This is only with trading in mind. (I have a free book – Betfair Trading Made Easy – available to download for What Really Wins Money readers at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk.)
I want to see the strong USA shows at Medinah and Celtic Manor, which must see this 1.58 odds rise as the market goes in-play. This will give us an excellent profit by laying at 1.58 and then hopefully backing Europe at higher odds in order to guarantee a profit. If you want a quick trading class, go to http://learning.betfair.com/en/.
Here are some more stats, which lead me to think that Europe are far from odds-on favourites: five of the last 11 Ryder Cup matches have been won by a single point. Two others were decided by only 2 points.
Is a USA +1.5 points bet a good bet in the hope of a tight match?
How about a correct score?
Top European scorer Graeme McDowell and Martin Kaymer? If backing at double-figure odds with bookmakers, try going each way.
It’s started already so we’ll see if the USA can serve it up to Europe, at least enough for us to make a quick trading profit!
There’s a really tasty race card at Newmarket tomorrow and it’s worthy of a look at the ‘Past Winners’ stats to see if they can predict the future winners tomorrow…
235 Newmarket – This is a Group 2 race for six runners. The last four runnings of this match have been won by first or second-favourites, so if the second-favourite is around 11/4 or higher, back it each way.
310 Newmarket – This is a ten-runner Group 1 race. Since 2006, the biggest-priced winner was 4/1. In a ten-runner race therefore, it may pay to back the 4/1 horse in this race each way, and hope he places at least.
350 Newmarket – This is a 35-runner handicap and only three favourites have won in ten years. The favourite did win last time out, at 8/1. Between 2008 and 2011, winners have been priced at 25/1, 16/1, 14/1 and 40/1, so speculate perhaps on a 16/1-shot each way and a 33/1-shot each way (in between 25/1 and 40/1) in a race where you’d need to get the prayer mats out.
535 Newmarket – Only one win in ten matches was a joint-favourite. Five of the last eight winners have been double-figure odds. I’d go with a 16/1-shot each way today, along with a 9/1-shot each way – real outsiders don’t tend to win.
It seems the lesson with Newmarket tomorrow could be a bit of each-way thievery, avoiding the obvious favourites and looking at an each-way angle. At least we’d get some kind of a return if placing.
Before I go, I’ll be sharing with you some ideas regarding ‘Banker Bets’. This form of betting is not for everyone. I was taken by this idea because of a service called www.soccerstreaks.com.
Now I am not promoting this service; rather asking the question as to whether we need to subscribe to a service which effectively tells us to back 1.2–1-3 favourites in the football, qualified by a bit of basic research.
There is an opportunity to make money with Banker Bets, which is why I want to explore this area further. More on that next week.
I’m off now to break a few windows of houses which live next to the golf driving range I use, not on purpose you understand – I tend to hit the golf ball like Shaun Ryder does, alas.
Have a great weekend!