‘Back to life, back to reality…’ as my close show-biz pals Soul II Soul once mentioned to me in the pub.
I have been away celebrating my girlfriend’s XXth birthday (if she asks, she is 32!) by visiting family in Guernsey and Ireland.
I have been visiting so many people I felt like socialite Tara Farmer-Palmer-Tomkinson-Tonkinson, and amongst the people I met was Andrew David, the author of such betting products as Little Acorns.
As you can imagine, conversation turned to betting, and my girlfriend felt like Chicharito warming the bench while we chatted.
He’s got some great betting strategies in the pipe-line, which will be as easy-to-use as Little Acorns and along the same principles (I like to think of Little Acorns as very much an investment plan. It’s low risk, with consistent returns).
So watch this space for more info. His ideas always impress because of their practicality in use.
It was nice to be back in Ireland although my stomach does look as if I am using Homer Simpson as a role model. Such is the side effects of the Murphy’s, Beamish and Guinness.
What will I learn from this old book?
While I was away I picked up a copy of a book called Lay Back and Think of Winning by Nigel Paul in a charity shop. (My girlfriend tends to think that the whole reason we visited Guernsey and Ireland was for her to scour charity shops.)
It was at a charity shop that I found a copy of this book for a massive 25p (which I am paying back in instalments). The book is some 11 years old and Betfair and the betting exchanges have moved on considerably, but there’s something alluring about a back-to-basics approach to trading horse races – the main theme of the book.
I’ll share with you some of the better strategies transformed to 2014, once I’ve finished reading the book and got some screen shots for you.
Coincidentally, there’s an interesting piece of software on the market at the moment, to be found at www.tradethehorses.com. I am currently trialling this software this week.
The guys behind the software claim to be able to allow us to read ‘ricks’ in the horse racing market and trade these ‘ricks’ for a profit. Horse racing trading has always interested me, but I have been put off by the apparent lack of profits – for me the profits vs time invested has been very poor.
Trading horses, of course, suggests you are able to follow the live betting market: this is one drawback I suppose. I’ll continue to work the software this week and give my conclusions soon. There’s nothing more appealing that nabbing a profit before a race has even started (the goal of Lay Back and Think of Winning too, a ‘weight of money’ type of strategy).
On the trading theme, I’m back home now and back to the football research and live chats for Delay React Trade (DRT) members, which I have missed this past two weekends.
I do enjoy the weekend football as I rarely leave a weekend without a nice profit. What Really Wins Money readers will have been provided with plenty of profitable football trading strategies throughout 2014, some of which I use to great effect with weekend football (as showcased in last week’s eletter).
November’s What Really Wins Money newsletter is written and includes that review of 2014 I spoke to you about last weekend.
I included a great staking plan sent in to me by a reader, which I thought had great potential and is guaranteed to return 4 points profit for every successful cycle.
The Statman this month wrote about how best to profit from winning machine Tony McCoy. The Patriarch put forward a great argument for how to profit from backing favourites in horse races. The key is selectivity.
I’ve expanded upon my greyhound ideas of a couple of eletters ago and this is an on-going thing now. With no newsletter in December, I can try and crack the greyhound racing code and have plenty of lines of enquiry.
My ‘Home-Grown’ systems and strategies are looking healthy as 2014 ends – I shared a couple with you last week. The key to their success is a long-term focus – year minimum. Some of the strategies have had a terrible couple of months, but have since stabilised and pulled in a profit.
Haydock sees Betfair splash out some of the commission I have handed out to them over the years in prize money, in a very high quality race card tomorrow. Here’s a look at the past winners, to see if we can find a future profitable trend.
225 Haydock – Only three winning favourites here since 2005 and the last three winners have been at odds of 7/1, 10/1 and 6/1, which are reasonable each-way prices.
David Pipe has won three of the last four runnings of this race. Vieux Lion Rouge and Katkeau are his two mounts. If one of them is between 6/1 and 10/1 then they are worth backing each way. If the favourite is a very short price (under 2/1), look at laying it.
300 Haydock – This is the Betfair Chase, or rather the Paul Nicholls Chase. He has won this race in six of the last nine occasions.
Ruby Walsh has won this race on three of the last five occasions. Silvianico Conti is the Paul Nicholls mount this year, and if around 3/1, is worth backing each way. Last year’s winner for Colin Tizzard, Cue Card, is inserted as favourite. Will he stop Paul Nicholls again?
These are the only two races with a reasonable set of past races for us to get angles from. Good luck.
And if you’re a stats man, note Rory Mcilroy in Dubai. He has won only four of 15 times when he has led the first round. Is he worth laying at odds of 2.32 with three days of this tournament to go? It’s tempting.
I’m off now to research football and do little else!
Have a great weekend.