The Cheltenham Festival will be upon us from Tuesday until Friday 14 March (my birthday, all presents – gold bullion, fast cars, and Kelly Brook’s mobile number – all greatly accepted at What Really Wins Money Towers) and here’s an extended eletter with the killer stats for the key races at the festival.
The final race cards have not been finalised so there are a few multiple entries of the same horse into two or more races.
How to use these stats…
Stats are useless without the horses that correspond to said stats, so I’ve done all the hard work for you.
You’ll know immediately which horse fits in with the winners’ profile and which don’t.
Here’s how to get the most out of these stats:
- Buy the Racing Post newspaper.
- On the race card, place a tick next to any horse featured in the ‘include’ list and a cross next to any horse featured in the ‘exclude’ list.
- The more ticks, the stronger the horse statistically; the more crosses the more you should steer clear!
- Make sure you tune in to my Twitter @whatreallywins from Tuesday onwards where I’ll be steering you towards the statistically stronger horses in each race. I’ll also be reading the markets at the Racing Post, Sporting Life and Betfair (three distinctly different markets) for any clues of horses the bookies want to stay the right side of. So see you Tuesday, 1.30 p.m. sharp @whatreallywins – mine’s a Guinness!
As this is the cream of the crop, there’s some cracking bookmaker offers about.
Check out the free £50 bet from Ladbrokes just in time for the festival: just click on the banner above and enter the code F50.
If you want any tips on how to guarantee a risk free profit, get in touch.
Every day, Ladbrokes are also offering price boosts between 1.45 p.m. and 2.00 p.m., so make sure you check them out.
Catch the Best Odds Guaranteed for the length of the festival. This is a great offer, particularly with some of the more open races, where if you take the price, including early prices, board prices, singles and multiples, if the SP returns greater, Ladbrokes will pay you out at the bigger price.
Tuesday 11 March 2014
1.30 p.m. – the Supreme Novice’s Hurdle
- Only two favourites have won in 19 meetings – Irving and Vautour fight out favouritism
- 15 of the last 17 winners won last time out – include Vautour, Wicklow Brave, Vaniteux, Gilgamboa, Valseur lido, Faugheen, Pearl Castle, Lac Fontana, Splash of Ginge, Art of Payroll, Sgt Reckless, Three Kingdoms, Un Ace, Sky Khan.
- No 4-year-old has won in the last ten years – exclude Pearl Castle.
- No 9, 10 or 11-year-olds have won since 1966 – none.
- The Irish have won nine of the last 15 runnings – include Vautour, Wicklow Brave, Gilgamboa, Valseur Lido, Western Boy, Faugheen, Art of Payroll, Lieutenant Colonel, Renneti, QuickPick Vic.
- The last ten winners all ran in the past 55 days – eliminate Josses Hill, Valseur Lido, Western Boy, Faugheen, The Liquidator, Garde la Victoire, Renneti, Three Kingdoms.
- Four of the last five winners were priced at 10/1 or 12/1.
- Faugheen is 7/1 with PaddyPower and Boylesport, yet 20/1 with Ladbrokes.
2.05 p.m. – Arkle Challenge Trophy
- The last ten winners were all priced at 9/1 or lower – include Champagne Fever, Rock on Ruby, Dodging Bullets, Trifolium, Valdez.
- Nine of the last ten winners were aged between 5 and 8 years old – exclude Rock on Ruby.
- Nine of the last ten winners finished in the first two on all completed chase starts – include Rock on Ruby, Dodging Bullets, Trifolium, Valdez, Hinterland, Grandouet, Felix Yonger, Djakadam, Arnaud, Vukovar, Brick Red.
- Nine of the last ten winners had a pre-race RPR of at least 151 – exclude Ted Veale, Western Warhorse.
- Nine of the last ten winners have previously raced at Cheltenham – exclude Djakadam, Mozoltov, Vukovar, Next Sensation.
2.40 p.m. – Festival Handicap Chase
- Only one horse has won carrying more than 10 stone 12 pounds – exclude Twirling Magnet, Our Father, Vesper Bell, Buddy Bolero, Vintage Star, Green Flag, Ma Filleule, Ackertac, Tap Night, Holywell, Annacotty, Hadrian’s Approach, Golden Chieftan, Restless Harry, Rigadin de Beauchene, Pacha du Polder, Make a Track, Vino Griego, Toner D’oudaires, Cantlow, Hunt Ball.
- The last ten winners were all rated between 129 and 143 – exclude Tap Night, Holywell, Annacotty, Hadrian’s Approach, Golden Chieftain, Restless Harry, Rigadin de Beauchene, Pacha du Polder, Make a Track, Vino Griego, Toner D’oudaires, Cantlow.
- All of the winners have been aged between 7 and 10 – exclude Alfie Sherrin, The Package, Fruity O’Rooney, Fine Parchment, Tullamore Dew.
- Only one favourite has won in 10 years – exclude Alfie Sherrin, The Package, Fruity O’Rooney, Fine Parchment, Tullamore Dew.
- Three double-figure odds winners in the last four years – exclude Cantlow.
3.20 p.m. – Stan James Champion Hurdle
If Hurricane Fly comes first or second in Tuesday’s Champion Hurdle, Ladbrokes will refund all losing win bets up to £/€25 as a free bet!
- The Irish have trained the winner of the last six years – include Hurricane Fly, Our Conor, Annie Power, Jezki, Un de Sceaux, Thousand stars, Captain Cee Bee.
- Nine of the last ten winners have previously finished at least fourth at the festival – include Hurricane Fly, The New One, Our Conor, My Tent or Yours, Annie Power, Jezki, Melodic Rendezvous, Ptit Zig, Grumeti, Thousand Stars, Captain Cee Bee.
- Only two favourites in the last seven have won, and that was Hurricane Fly in two of the last three years – exclude Hurricane Fly and the New One – they are the two joint favourites as I write.
- 25 of the last 30 winners won last time out – include Hurricane Fly, My Tent or Yours, Annie Power, Un de Sceaux, Melodic Rendezvous.
- Ten of the last 11 winners were aged between 6–9 years – exclude Hurricane Fly, Thousand Stars, Captain Cee Bee.
4.00 p.m. – OLBG Mares Hurdle
- Quevega has won the last five runnings of this race.
- Quevega is 4/7 favourite as I write.
4.40 p.m. – The National Hunt Challenge Cup
- Three consecutive favourites have won the last three runnings – Foxrock is the current favourite. This might change as we near the day.
- All of the last ten winners were placed first or second in a chase over 3 miles – exclude Living Next Door.
- All of the last ten winners have run at least three times over fences – exclude Ballycasey, Suntiep.
- Just two 5/6-year-old horses winning since 1989 – Foxrock and Rogue Angel.
- Nine of the last 12 runners finished first or second last time out – include Midnight Prayer, Merlin’s Wish, Herdsman, Milborough, Wrong Turn, Suntiep, Holywell, Corrin Wood, Black Thunder, Toby Lerone, Shotgun Paddy, Ballycasey, Foxrock.
- Paul Nicholl’s runners tend to struggle – include Black Thunder, Just a Par.
5.15 p.m. – Novices Handicap Chase
- Only two favourites have won in nine runnings – Pendra is the current favourite.
- Three double-figure odds winners in the last four runnings – exclude Pendra.
- All winners were aged between 5 and 8 – exclude Firm Order, Dark Lover, Manyriverstocross, Renard D’irlande.
- Eight of the last nine runners were placed in the first two last time out – include Manyriverstocross, Persian Snow, Ericht, Dunlough Bay, Ahyaknowyerself, Bobcatbilly, The Way We Were, Wrong Turn, Buywise, Saroque, The Romford Pele, Cause of Causes, Buthelezi, Festival Affair, Up and Go, Dursey Sound, Authinger, Present View, Beforeall, Une Artiste, Indian Castle.
- The Irish have only won this race once – exclude Sizing Machine, Cause of Causes, Art of Logistics, Authinger, Wrong Turn, Living Next Door, Balnaslow, Passage Vendome, King Vuvuzela, The Way We Were.
Wednesday 12 March 2014
1.30 p.m. – Neptune Novice’s Hurdle
- The last ten winners were aged either 5 or 6 – exclude Sea Lord, Royal Boy, Quickpick Vic, Ballyalton, Killala Quay, Deep Trouble, Captain Cutter, Prince Siegfried, Ashes House.
- Nine of the last ten winners finished first or second last time out – exclude Ashes House, Ballyalton, Carole’s Destrier, Cocktails at Dawn, Company Coming, Creepy, Cup Final, Deep Trouble, Double Irish, Fourth Act, Gilt Shadow, Killala Quay, Madness Light, Midnight Thunder, Minella Foru, Moonshine Lad, Pink Hat, Pleasant Company, Porto Melon, Prince of Lombardy, Prince Siegfried, Quickpick Vic, Regal Diamond, Renneti, Royal Player, Royal Regatta, Seedling, Sky Khan, Timesremembered, Twelve Roses, Upazo, Urano.
- All of the last ten winners came from the first six in the betting market – include Currently Faugheen, Red Sherlock, Briar Hill, Royal Boy, Rathvinden, Vautour.
- A 7/1 horse has won in three of the last six runnings – include Royal Boy – is 13/2 currently but this is liable to change.
2.05 p.m. – The RSA Steeple Chase
- Only three favourites have won in the last 10 years – Ballycasey is the current favourite.
- All of the last ten winners were first or second last time out – includes Annacotty, Ballycasey, Black Thunder, Corrin Wood, Don Cossack, Double Ross, Foxrock, Holywell, Le Bec, Many Clouds, Morning Assembly, O’Faolains Boy, Sam Winner, Smad Place.
- All of the last ten winners ran at least three times over fences – exclude Ballycasey, Champagne Fever, Gevrey Chambertain.
2.40 p.m. – The Coral Cup
- No favourite has won in the last 10 runnings – there are a number of current favourites so check the market on the day.
- Eight of the last ten winners have been priced at 10/1 or higher – alas, this includes the whole market presently.
- All ten winners were officially rated between 128 and 148 – exclude Street of New York, Oscar Fiain, Bob Tucker, Indian Daudaie, Traditional Bob, Sky Khan, Angelot de Berlais, Prompter, Red Not Blue, Astigos, Panama Petrus, Western Jo, Another Hero, Seymour Eric.
- Eight of the last ten winners were aged 7 or younger – exclude Hazy Tom, Meister Eckhart, Saint Roque, Rainbow Peak, Open Day, Passage Vendome, Clerk’s Choice, Citizenship, Ifandbutwhynot, Busty Brown, Man With Van, Alaivan, Who Owns Me, Seymour Eric, Native Gallery, Perfect Gentleman, Yesyoucan, Roi de Mee, Traditional Bob, Clonard Lad, Oscar’s Well, Call Box, Art Professor, The Disengager, Getmeoutofhere, Son of Flicka, Noble Prince, Benbane Head, Dunguib, Red Not Blue.
- Ten different trainers have trained the winner in the last 10 years – exclude Alan King’s Runners Medinas, Vendor, Meister Eckhart.
3.20 p.m. – The Queen Mother Champion Chase
- Nine of the last ten winners were 10 years old or younger – exclude Sizing Europe and Wishful Thinking.
- Nine of the last 10 winners had won a Grade One race – exclude Wishful Thinking, Savello, Baily Green, Astracad, Kid Cassidy, Module.
4.00 p.m. – The Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Steeple Chase
- Only two favourites have won the last nine runnings – Balthazar King and Big Shu are the current favourites.
- Seven of the last nine winners were priced at 13/2 or lower – the above two horses are currently the only horses under 13/2. Do note that, as I write, there are two horses at 7/1 whose prices may shorten.
- Seven of the last nine winners were placed previously at Cheltenham – exclude Love Rory, Star Neuville, Bishopsfurze, Imperial Circus, Quel Esprit, Sacree Tiepy, Quiscover Fontaine.
4.40 p.m. – The Fred Winter Hurdle
- Only two favourites have won the last nine runnings – Dawalan is the current favourite.
- The last two winners were priced at 25/1 and 40/1.
5.15 p.m. – The Champion Bumper
- No 4-year-old has ever won – exclude Royal Vacation, Modus, Coyaba, Champoleon, Aminabad, Agha des Mottes.
- All of the last ten winners won last time out – include Assam Black, Black Hercules, Champoleon, Definitely Red, El Namoose, Foryourinformation, Great Try, Heritage Way, Killultagh Vic, Modus, Shaneshill, Silver Concorde, The Govaness, Third Act, Time for a Pint, Value at Risk, Vigil, Western Way, Westhorpe.
- Only one favourite has won in the last ten runnings – Black Hercules is the current favourite but that might change.
- Willie Mullins has trained the last two winners – he runs Killultagh Vic, Black Hercules and Westhorpe.
- The odds of the last four winners were 40/1, 14/1, 16/1 and 25/1.
Thursday 13 March 2014
1.30 p.m. – JLT Novices Chase
- Avoid horses that didn’t finish in the first two in their last outing – exclude Champagne Fever, Uxizandre, Colour Squadron, Caid de Berlais, Art of Logistics, Balnaslow, Mullaghanoe River, Shrapnel, Some Tikket, Captain Ocana.
2.05 p.m. – The Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle
- No favourite has won in the last 10 years – there are currently two favourites in Fingal Bay and If In Doubt but this may change up to race time.
- All ten winners were rated at 142 or less – exclude Mickie, Seefood, Buddy Bolero, Jetson, Trustan Times, Champagne West, Attaglance, Quartz de Thaix, Sadler’s Risk, Southfield Theatre, Fingal Bay.
- Nine of the last ten winners were aged between 6 and 9 years – exclude Cross Kennon, Quel Elite, Quartz de Thaix, Lie Forrit, Benbane Head, Pineau de Re, Vics Canvas, Red Not Blue.
- Nine of the last ten winners were priced 14/1 or higher – exclude Fingal Bay, If In Doubt, Champagne West, Inis Meain, Clonard Lad.
- Only one winning 5-year-old in the race’s history – exclude Seventh Sign and Tullyesker Hill.
2.40 p.m. – The Ryanair Chase
- No top-rated horse has won in the last 10 years – Cue Card.
- Seven of the last nine winners were placed in the first three in their last race – include Cue Card, Al Ferof, Hunt Ball, Captain Conan, Cloudy Too, Module, Wishful Thinking, Cantlow, Time for Rupert, Tatenen, Arvika Ligeonniere, First Lieutenant, Mount Benbulben, Hidden Cyclone, Rathlin, Benefficient, Last Instalment, Toner D’oudaires, Twinlight.
- All of the last nine winners were rated at 152 or higher – include Kauto Stone, Rajdhani Express, Wishful Thinking, Rolling Aces, Module, Champion Court, Cloudy Too, Kid Cassidy, Captain Conan, Hunt Ball, Riverside Theatre, Al Ferof, Menorah, Dynaste, Cue Card.
- Seven of the last eight winners were priced at 6/1 or lower – includes currently First Lieutenant, Dynaste, Benefficient, Al Ferof, Last Instalment.
3.20 p.m. – Ladbrokes World Hurdle
- Four favourites have won in the last six runnings (four of those were the same horse: Big Bucks) – at present it’s a tussle at the head of the market between Annie Power and Big Bucks.
- All of the last ten winners finished first or second last time out – exclude Big Bucks, Celestial Halo, Boston Bob, Reve de Sivola, Cotton Mill, Awaywiththegreys, Trustan Times, Saphir du Rheu
- All of the last ten winners finished first or second on all hurdles races that season – include Annie Power, More of That, Quevega, Zarkander, Salubrious.
- All of the last ten winners have run at the festival before – exclude Mala Beach, Trustan Times.
4.00 p.m. – Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase
- Only one favourite has won in the last 10 years – Colour Squadron and Tap night are current favourites but this will likely change up to race time.
- Nine of the last ten winners were 12/1 or bigger – that includes the whole field, bar the above two mentioned.
- All of the last ten winners had run at Cheltenham previously – exclude Uxizandre, Festive Affair, Don Cossack, Balnaslow, Rockyaboya, Rupert Lamb, Next Sensation, Up to Something, Dursey Sound, Firth of Clyde, Buywise, King Vuvuzela, Prince de Beauchene, Saroque, Shrapnel, Tabhachtach, Gardefort, Highway Code, Christopher Wren, Sean Airgead, Lamboro Lad, Bury Parade.
4.40 p.m. – Kim Muir Challenge Cup
- Only three favourites have won in the last 10 years – Indian castle is the current stand-alone favourite.
- The Irish are yet to win this race – exclude Spring Heeled, Los Amigos, Romanesco, Cause of Causes, Thelobstercatcher, BecauseIcouldntsee, Hunting Party, Raz de Maree, Wrong Turn, Oscar’s Well, Victrix Gale, Living Next Door, Sraid Padraig, Sole Witness, Questions Answered, Rockyaboya, Vesper Bell, Away We Go, Up The Beat, Balnaslow, Your Busy, Caomhe’s Delight, Alvarado, Tabhachtach.
- The last 13 winners ran over at least 3 miles last time out – exclude Buywise, Charingworth, Dashing George, Divine Intavention, Dunlough Bay, Fine Parchment, Indian Castle, Living Next Door, No Buts, Pickamus, Samingarry, Sharney Sike, Sraid Padraig, Sunny Ledgend, Tabhachtach, Toby Lerone, What a Warrior, Wicklow Lad, Wrong Turn, Your Busy.
Friday 14 March 2014
1.30 p.m. – JCB Triumph Hurdle
- Only one favourite has won since 2000 – Calipto is the current favourite.
- Nine of the last ten winners won last time out – includes Calipto, Le Rocher, Activial, Broughton, Guitar Pete, Rutherglen, Pearl Castle, Gitane du Berlais, Abbyssial, Lindenhurst, Akdam.
- The Irish have only trained one winner in the last 10 years – exclude Achtung, Halling’s Treasure, Arzembuoy Premier, Tiger Roll, Clarcam, Space Ship, Guitar Pete, Lindenhurst, Orgilgo Bay, Powder Hound, Gitane de Berlais, All Pepper, Noble Inn, Adriana des Mottes, Ivan Grozny, Abbyssial, Streak, Plinth.
2.05 p.m. – The County Handicap Hurdle
- Only two favourites have won in the last 10 years – Regal Encore is the current favourite.
- Eight of the last ten winners were priced at 10/1 or bigger – Regal Encore is the only horse under 10/1.
- Eight of the last ten winners were aged 5 or 6 – exclude Captain Cee Bee, Dunguib, Get Me Out of Here, Strongpoint, Dunraven Storm, Tzora, Anay Turge, Cheltenian, Citizenship, Gibb River, Passage Vendome, Rainbow Peak, Act of Kalanisi, Recession Proof, Master of the Game, Barizan, Alaivan, Sgt Reckless, Swing Bowler, Ted Spread, Sailors Warn, Leviathan, Thomas Edison, Cash and Go, Seventh Sky, First in the Queue, Empire of Dirt, Ted Veale, Prompter, Joxer, Makari, Quickpick Vic, Midnight Game, Rocky Wednesday, Montbazon, Jumps Road, Morning Royalty, Cinder and Ashes, Vulcanite, Canadian Diamond, Depp Trouble.
- The last five winners have been priced either 10/1 (twice) or 20/1 (3 times) – current 10/1 horses include Arctic Fire, Gilgamboa, lac Fontana, Cheltenian; and current 20/1 horses include Diakali, Irish Saint, Sailors Warn, Upazo, Sure Reef, Arnaud, Montbazon, The Skyfarmer, Swing Bowler, Rainbow Peak, Thomas Edison, Cash and Go, Dunraven Storm, Stand to Reason, Master of the Game, Ally Cascade, Vicky de L’oasis, Ranjaan, Waxies Dargle, Purple Bay, New Year’s Eve, Sgt Reckless.
2.40 p.m. – The Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
- Eight of the last nine winners have come from the first five in the betting – the current top 5 include Briar Hill, Kings Palace, Faugheen, Red Sherlock, and Captain Cutter. These are liable to change with inflows of bets struck.
3.20 p.m. – The Cheltenham Gold Cup
- All of the last ten winners were 8/1 or lower – this makes this a three-horse race at time of writing, with Bob’s Worth, Silvaniaco Conti, and Last Instalment.
- Six of the last ten runnings have been won by the favourite – Bob’s Worth is the 6/4 favourite currently, with Silvaniaco Conti breathing down his neck at 5/2.
- All of the last ten winners have won a Grade One Chase – exclude Trio D’alene, The Giant Bolster, Harry Topper, Rocky Creek, Katenko, Knockara Beau, and it’s 50/1 bar these horses.
4.00 p.m. – Christies Foxhunter Chase
- Only two favourites have won in the last 10 years – On the Fringe for Enda Bolger is the current favourite.
- Rodger Sweeney has won the last two runnings – he has no runners this year.
5.15 p.m. – The Grand Annual Chase
- Only two favourites have won in the last ten runnings – the current favourite is Next Sensation and this is likely to change up to race time.
- Eight of the last ten winners had all run at Cheltenham previously – exclude Next Sensation, Ned Buntline, Turban, Festive Affair, Rupert Lamb, Fago, Grey Gold, Savello, Oscar Hill, Upsilon Bleu, Passage Vendome, Bar de Ligne, Garde de Fort, King Vuvuzela, Kate’s Benefit, Sizing Machine, Upepito, Al Alfa, Shrapnel, Lucky Landing, Nearest the Pin, Bellenos, Notarfbad, Last Shot, Christopher Wren, Surprise Vendor, Pearl’s Legend.
- Only one favourite has won in the last nine runnings, and that was last year. Will another favourite really win again in 2014?
Best of luck this year at Cheltenham…
I’ll see you on Twitter @whatreallywins – where I’ll be reading the markets for you. I might be able to organise a live chat, so see you 1.30 p.m. on Tuesday for more details.
Have a great weekend!