Well, this weekend sees the Breeders Cup meeting in the US of A, and those Americans love their pace angles.
The Breeders Cup runs tonight and tomorrow night and is for you night owls. A good starting point if you are interested is the aforementioned http://www.attheraces.com/, which has its own microsite.
If you read the commentary at the microsite you will know that the draw is a major factor at Del Mar, so make it part of your thoughts if you are having a Breeders Cup play.
I have found historically that www.racingpost.com has had excellent coverage of the Breeders Cup. In days gone by, Nick Mordin used to do the comments. I am not sure if he is doing so today and tomorrow.
So use the Racing Post and At the Races as your Breeders Cup resources.
If you still want to use a pace angle, then at http://www.racingpost.com/ you can click on the horses’ names in order to access their form. Look at the comments for clues.
Remember that you want to slot a horse into one of four pace profiles: 1) the leader/front runner; 2) prominent/pressing; 3) midfield; and 4) hold-up horse.
Here is the form for the last three races for Best Performance, who runs tonight. I have chosen the horse at random but he serves as a good example
• Held up towards rear, good headway on outer from over 3f out, ridden and every chance approaching final furlong, kept on well, no impression on winner last 100yds (came second).
• Held up in midfield, ridden and stayed on from 2f out, went second closing stages, not reach winner (came second).
• Held up in rear pair, good headway on outer from 3f out, ridden over 2f out, kept on to take 2nd 1f out, no chance with clear winner (came second).
Now it doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes for us to take a wild guess at this horse’s pace profile (see last week’s eletter and last month’s What Really Wins Money newsletter). The clue is in the words ‘held up’.
This is a hold up horse. Interestingly this horse has twice been beaten by a horse which has made all.
So, if you were so inclined, look at the past-form comments for this race for a horse who is a leader, who ‘made all’ in the comments section and preferably won consistently as a front runner.
For those of you who like to back a horse and lay it at lower odds in running (Google ‘dobbing’), it may be worth backing a horse like Best Performance a few minutes into the race, as its odds will rise because it will be in the rear. Then hope for the late surge that has been apparent in its last three runs. Lay the horse at lower odds, and hey presto, a profit.
Pace is more utilised in America than in the UK, so will be a primary factor in tonight and tomorrow’s races.
If you want a US perspective on the Breeders Cup then www.dmtc.com and http://www.drf.com/ will provide good coverage.
Enjoy the Breeders Cup!