First up, allow me to bask a little in the glory of a nice unsolicited email this week, from one DRT member who wrote:
‘It is very rare that I contact a sport information provider to praise them but in your case I will make an exception. Your analysis of matches has been a godsend – it is second to none!
‘The vast majority of my wagers are placed pre-match, with an occasional bet in-play to add to the initial bet. In two months I have made only five incorrect calls and four of these were avoidable after rechecking the statistics.
‘In summary, your analysis have help me to achieve a monthly profit for September in excess of £2,400 (minimum stake £50, maximum stake £100). These figures were achieved during an international break, which is a notoriously difficult period to achieve consistent profits. This therefore makes your analysis all the more incredible.
‘Keep up the good work!’
That email from Stephen M was certainly a great start to the week.
It’s very gratifying that people are profiting, as I hoped they would, from my hours and hours of football research which I provide on a daily basis to DRT members.
During this international break, my main football strategy is the Correct Score strategy. It’s simple really. Go to the football coupon at www.betfair.com and take note of really short-priced selections.
Here’s an example of the real ‘shorties’ (as I call them), from today’s international football coupon…
1.30 p.m. – Serbia U19 v San Marino U19 – 1.02 to Serbia u19
2.00 p.m. – Liechtenstein U19 v France U19 – 1.01 to France U21
7.45 p.m. – Belgium v Andorra – 1.02 – 1.02 Belgium
Do not dismiss these short-priced teams who are unbackable in the Match Odds market.
- Think goals.
- Think correct scores.
- Think wins to nil.
Look at yesterday’s matches: Germany u19 were 1.03-shots against Kazakhstan u19 and won 6-0 (a correct score I correctly predicted in the DRT research).
Russia U19 were 1.04-shots against Faroe Islands u19 and won 7-0. My DRT research prediction? 6-0 and 8-0: yes, that’s right – ye olde betting gods are having a good chortle at that prediction!
England were 1.01-shots against San Marino. The final score? 5-0. My research yesterday? ‘Look towards 6-0, 7-0 scorelines. England tend to level out at 5-0 and 6-0 at home to minnows.’
You see the pattern? Turn these shorties into a good-priced bet by looking at a Goals bet or a Correct Score to Nil bet.
You could include these matches in goals accumulators or correct score permutations. Here’s an article I wrote some time ago on Correct Score permutations – it is perfectly suited to the international break and can produce a massive return…
How to exploit these correct scores for potential huge returns
Try out the following permutations once you have determined a likely correct score based upon these selection processes (and the assumption that these short-priced international teams will win at around a 4-0 starting point).
Permutation 1: ??Ukraine is playing Andorra at home. Ukraine is, quite rightly, very short-odds favourites, being quoted at odds of 1/40. This signifies goals. This will be match one. On the same day, Russia is playing Liechtenstein. The Russians are quoted as 1/100 shots. Again, this signifies goals. This will be match two.
- Match one: 2-0 3-0 4-0 4-1 5-0
- Match two: 2-0 3-0 3-1 4-0 5-0
We write down a variation of scores which surround the 4-0 to hopefully account for any difficulties in scoring. I always include one score where the minnows score a goal – this, I’m afraid, is where luck comes in. 3-1 or 4-1 would be my options.
On the betting slip, we write ‘Perm five results for each match for a correct score double = 25 bets’.
If the result of both matches is contained on your betting slip, you have a winning double, and as Correct Scores tend to pay out at decent odds, we have a chance of a nice-paying double to compensate for the biggish cost of the bet.
Permutation 2: ??For this Correct Score permutation, we will focus predominantly on those teams and those leagues which are generally renowned for tight games and tight results. My first step here is to visit www.soccerstats.com, that little goldmine of information, and look at each team’s performance in a given league against the dominant teams in that league; or a team who are dominant at home.
For instance, if looking at the Premiership, I would select a team like Burnley, and looking at the Challenge Table, I determine that they are generally competitive at home, with scorelines of 1-0, 3-1, 1-0, 1-3, 2-1 & 2-0.
Alternatively, I would also look at teams such as Stoke, who, when playing the top-four teams at Stoke’s home ground in the Premiership (Man Utd, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea), do eventually lose, but keep the matches tight. Losses such as 2-1 and 2-0 when Chelsea and Man Utd visited offer us an insight into the expected scorelines when Arsenal and Liverpool visit.
Another method of looking for a shortlist of matches is to look in those leagues which, whilst having dominant teams, tend to generate tight scorelines. As well as using the Challenge Table, we can also use the Scores (at Home) and Scores (Away) Tables to determine the most popular scorelines for a specific team.
One league which immediately springs to mind is the Greek Premier League. We have two dominant teams in Panathinaikos and Olympiakos. If we look at Panathinaikos in particular, and the Scores (at Home) and Scores (Away) Tables at www.soccerstats.com, 2-1 has appeared three times at home, 1-0 has appeared once at home, 1-0 has appeared twice away from home.
I hope you have subliminally noticed the scorelines mentioned above: 1-0, 2-1 and 2-0, and these will form the basis of our second permutation.
- Match one: 1-0 2-0 2-1
- Match two: 1-0 2-0 2-1
- ?Match three: 1-0 2-0 2-1
Write the above on your betting slip or in your long-list fixed-odds coupon with the instructions to the bookmaker to ‘Perm 3 scorelines for each match for a winning treble = 27 bets’.
I hope you find these correct score permutations useful.
There’s a sumptuous race card at Newmarket tomorrow, so I thought I’d do my traditional look at past winners to see if they can predict future trends.
205 Newmarket 11 October 2014 – This is a Group 3 match. Only one winning favourite (joint-favourite) in the last five runnings. Andrea Atzeni won last year and jockeys haven’t won two consecutive races. Perhaps ignore his Bartholemew’s Fair.
Winners of 15/2, 8/1 and 9/1 in the last five years. I would venture towards an 8/1 horse each way in this race tomorrow.
240 Newmarket – This is a listed race for fillies and mares with 19 runners and only three winning favourites in ten years. These winners were 11/8 and 6/4. Perhaps if we see a 6/4 horse tomorrow, back it?
The biggest-priced outsider in ten years was a 20/1-shot. I would look to a 12/1–16/1 horse to back each way tomorrow. I don’t have the betting market so you’ll have to check it tomorrow.
Guess who won this race last year? Andrea Atzeni. It would be such an anomaly for him to do what he did last year again.
350 Newmarket – This is the ‘Cesarewitch’ and is a 36-runner field. Good luck! The last two winners have been 66/1-shots and there have been only two winning favourites in ten years.
Odds of 25/1, 66/1, 66/1 are those of the last three winners. Think big. Think speculative tomorrow. And do back each way. A new jockey tends to win this each year: De Sousa, Fallon, Dettori, Beuzelin , Atzeni, Ahern, Murtagh, Spencer, Munro and French are the last few winning jockeys. Ignore their horses perhaps, and head for a clear outsider or two?
Good luck with the Cesarewitch. You’ll need it. I’d look at a 25/1-shot, a 40/1-shot and a 66/1-shot not ridden by the jockeys above in the hope that a new jockey wins again.
One thing I have noticed in Andrea Atzeni: he won the Cesarewitch in 2009 and also won the first two races at last year’s meeting. Speculate on all of his rides each way?
I’m off now to ensure a nice cold pint of beer tomorrow. It’s rare that I get a weekend off. One of the perks of the international break!
Have a great weekend.