How to back a football team at over 100/1 and win (again!)

 

Benfica used to be my favourite football team, only because I backed them at odds of 110 earlier this season and they won!

Well yesterday, using my DRT philosophy I backed a Singaporean team called Tampines Rovers at odds of 140, and they won!

Yes, Tampines Rovers. I have been singing ‘They are, by far, the greatest team the world has ever seen’. (They’re probably not even the best team in Tampines, but hey, my Betfair account doesn’t mind!)

Check it out! This is a screenshot of Fairbot from www.binteko.com (it’s just a way of placing a bet at www.betfair.com)…

How on earth did I back a team at odds of 140, and win £263.98 for a £2 risk?

It’s Delay-React-Trade.

Here’s how this example worked… I noticed this match at www.betfair.com and that it went ‘in-play’, meaning that I could bet as the match unfolded.

I noticed that Tampines Rovers were priced at odds of 1.14 (£14 stake will return £100 – very short odds)…

I kept an eye on this match and noticed the away side Harimau actually were leading 0-2.

A bit of basic research at www.soccerway.com shows that Harimou don’t do a lot of winning in the Singapore league. In their recent matches they have been conceding late goals and conceding 3+ goals.

The match was entering the 91st minute. Would a 1.14 shot really lose a match? I hoped that Tampines Rovers would score and make the scoreline 2-2 to allow a small trade. So I backed this 1.14 shot at odds of 140 (139/1 in old money).

And lo and behold, Tampines Rovers score 93rd and 96th minute goals. Wonderful! I just bag £263 for a £2 stake.

How to back a football team at over 100/1 and win (again!)

This is what DRT is all about. Note a short-priced favourite. Delay. Delay some more. Wait for a massive surprise, then pounce! If the team was so short pre-match, it must have been for a reason?

I do stuff like this week in and week out. The key watchwords for DRT: ‘low risk and high reward’. So why not join me and my happy live chatters some time? I’ll be looking for these bets for you where you risk low and win big!

Delay React Trade

Stick a pin in it!

That’s what my Gran used to do. Yes the Grand National will be with us very soon. Now, I don’t normally advocate getting stuck into a 40-runner 4 mile+ handicap Chase over massive fences every day of the week.

I prefer to each way back in 8/9-runner races myself (as What Really Wins Money readers know at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk).

There are, though, key trends which are apparent in the last ten winners of the Grand National which might just make your job easier in uncovering the winner!

Get the deer stalker on!

If Sherlock Holmes was looking for the winner, he’d look at things logically. This is a handicap Chase, so trainers who want their horses to have the best possible chances of winning the race will try and ensure their weight is kept down…

And how do they do that? By running said horses over HURDLES rather than Chase fences!

Horses have different handicap ratings for whether they are running over hurdles or chases – seven of the last ten Grand National winners ran over hurdles in the season they won the Grand National.

Look therefore for horses who have been campaigned over hurdles this season. It may point to a trainer trying to protect his horse’s handicap mark.

Burton Port is a horse who has exclusively been raced over hurdles this season by Jonjo O’Neill.

Age before beauty!

The youngsters don’t have a good record in the Grand National. You’ll have to go back as far as 1940 to find a horse younger than 8 years of age who won the Grand National.

Thirteen of the last 18 winners were aged between 9/10 years.

In the last 88 years, no horse older than 12 years of age has won the Grand National.

Class acts!

The most recent winners all ran with a handicap rating of between 136 and 157. Focus only on horses between these official ratings.

A weighty issue

Since the war only six Grand Nationals have been won by horses carrying more than 11st 5 lbs – and two of those were by the incredible Red Rum! 11 stone 7lbs and under looks to be the optimum weight.

Weight, remember, is key for handicaps, much more so for a long distance staying handicap Chase.

The stamina to last the course

Concentrate on horses who are proven over 3+ miles as winners. (Vladimir Putin’s favourite horse) Gay Trip in 1970 was the last winner who hadn’t won over 3 miles before.

Won a fair amount!

The winners of the Grand National have been proven winners in Class races. Look for horses who have previously won races worth £17,000 or more.

Experience

All of the last ten winners had run at least ten times over fences.

The Cheltenham factor

Although a few horses have raced at Cheltenham and then gone on to win the National, generally we are looking for horses who are peaking in April, not mid March! So look negatively on any Cheltenham festival runners this year who are running in the Grand National.

I’ll be on Twitter @whatreallywins for the duration of the Aintree Grand National meeting, beginning 3 April 2014 (a Thursday and culminating with Saturday’s Grand National card, where we’ll take the stats through the card and try to nail some great each way priced horses).

And before I go, remember last week’s eletter pointed out the amazing set of negative results when teams play league matches before an important Champions League match. So, watch out for Chelsea, Manchester United, Bayern Munich, Dortmund, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atl Madrid, Paris St Germain (playing tonight).

Will these teams falter in their league matches this weekend?

I’m off now to buy a new Tampines Rovers football top. I am now a fan!

Have a great weekend,

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