Half a telegram from the Queen.

Today is the day I received half of my telegram from the Queen. Yes, I hit the big 50 today. Now my age matches my waist size ( in inches). The syncronicity there is spooky. 

Cheltenham Festival has dominated proceedings this week. How have you got on? Did you win enough money to buy lots of loo roll? I hope so. 

Apart from 50/1 shot Lisnagar Oscar, the Cheltenham Festival has arguably been a Festival for market leaders, and not necessarily the outsiders. Will that continue today? I

Today’s Cheltenham sees 5 races of 18+ runners. Big fields should be competitive …right? 

Well…one of my articles in What Really Wins Money newsletter is called the ‘Betting Bot Chronicles’. One of the strategies I have been looking for is the performance of favourites in 18+ runner horse races.

A 16.7 point profit has accrued to level stakes backing favourites in 18+ runner races since August 2019. That caught my attention. 

That performance may be something to consider with today’s big field races at Cheltenham. There have been winning favourites at 7.5 and 5.04 odds already in 18+ runner races at Cheltenham.

I thought I’d crunch the numbers for the performance of favourites in 18+ runner races over the last 10 years. 

Here are the standout stats to Betfair SP

  • 57.78 and 23.78 points profit backing favourites in 18+ runner races in Class 3 and Class 2 races.
  • 36.52 points profit backing in 6 furlong races ( not really applicable to Cheltenham)
  • 60 points profit laying favourites in 18+ runner races in National Hunt Flat Races.
  • Galway ( 50 points), Tipperary (40 points), Redcar ( 38 points), Newbury(30 points) dominate the profit making courses for backing favourites in 18+ runner races.
  • 9 placed favourites in the last 12 races at Cheltenham in 2019 suggests each-way is the way to play.
  • 23 points profit backing in 23 runner races. 

I’ll be watching Galway and Tipperary for sure as far as 18+ runner races is concerned.

If you want to back favourites in today’s 18+ runner laden field, then please back each-way in order to have some insurance for the places . 

Good luck with your plays.

I am off now to buy 50 toilet rolls, 1 for every year of my life on what has been a largely virus-free existence so far.

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