Find strategies from form analysis

Most Fridays now you’re going to see a race meeting at Dundalk – Ireland’s only All-Weather venue.

And in a continuing series of articles at What Really Wins Money  I look at historical form and look to find very profitable horse racing strategies.

Well – here’s one for Dundalk… It’s easy to follow. Here’s what you do…

  • Focus on handicap races at Dundalk.
  • Note down the singular top-weight in these races (not joint-top-weight).
  • If that singular top-weight is the favourite for the race at the off, back it to level stakes.

This simple strategy has historically a 32% strike-rate, a Betfair SP profit of 68%, and a return-on-investment of 19.44%.

It could be your new Friday habit. Here’s a potential play today.

The top-weight will be number 1 in a handicap. At 10-5 under wgt (weight), Park Row qualifies. The horse is favourite in the betting forecast BUT must be favourite in the betting market.

There are other singular top-weights today at Dundalk who may, or may not, become betting market favourites. If so, they qualify.

I hope to uncover more gems over the months within the newsletter.

Away from Dundalk, you can’t help but notice that the Ryder Cup is taking place.

Here’s some key stats for that:

  • The Ryder Cup has been a draw just twice in its history: 11/1 for the draw tempts but is unlikely, alas.
  • Patrick Reed and Jordan Speith have been a pairing seven times in the last two Ryder Cups and their record is 4-1-2. Back them to win if paired this Ryder Cup.
  • The last time USA won on European soil was 1993, so as an in-running play, if it looks as if the USA may clinch the Ryder Cup, why not lay them at short odds?
  • Europe have won seven out of the last ten Ryder Cups. If we assume this again, then backing Europe winning margin by 1-3 points at 4.5, 4-6 points at 7.4, and 7+ points at 12 might set us up for a big return if they trounce the USA, and a small profit/break-even if they win by a small margin.

For me, top overall scorer Spieth and Fleetwood at 6.4 and 10.5 appeals. One from each side.

And before I go, the two-year-olds are out in force at Newmarket tomorrow. When I see high-class two-year-old races, I think Aidan O-Brien.

The 13:50, 14:25 and 15:00 races at Newmarket tomorrow are all two-year-old races, and I will be backing all Aidan O’Brien two-year-olds at each-way odds (5/1 or higher).

Cape of Good Hope, Mohawk and Sydney Opera House in the first; Fairyland, Gossamer Wings and So Perfect in the second; and Sergei Prokoviev in the third race.

A hope the outsiders run into places. It happens a lot with O’Brien two-year-olds.

Whatever your play, have a great weekend!

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