York’s ebor meeting will be with us this week and it’s a fine time to look at the 10-year trends, beginning with favourites.
In the last 10 years, had you layed all favourites at the Ebor meeting, you’d have made a whopping 3.61 points profit ( don’t spend it all at once).
It does look a very competitive meeting. In 2018, layers of favourites would have profited well. The favourite winners, when they came, were generally short odds.
Apprentice ridden races have actually been the most profitable at York’s Ebor meeting for favourite backers, albeit 16 points in the last 10 years. With 6 of the 10 favourites in the last 10 years placing, you might want to back the favourite each way in apprentice races at the Ebor ( there were 2 last year).
Group 3 races are next best, seeing a 2nd, 1st and 1st last year at poor odds of 5/2, 2/1 and Evens.
Only 2 favourites have won in maiden races at the Ebor. You might want to lay any short priced favourite in a maiden race There tends to be 1 maiden race a year.5 of the last 6 maiden favourites have lost.
With no winning favourites in 14 runnings, the favourite looks very layable in 20 runner races.
11 runner races are next best with only 2 winners in 13 runnings for the favourite.
When you see a 3 year old 110+ race, the favourite is 0 from 23 runnings. There are about 3 such races each Yokr Ebor meeting.
From a pace perspective, Leaders don’t dominate ( as has usually been the case when we focus on leaders).Only 3 winners in 19 races in the York Ebor. The last 2 winners were 1/4 odds and 6/4 odds. Liabilities are low. You know by now how to find leaders don’t you? ( hint – www.racingtv.com)
At last a profitable angle for favourite backers? A 20 point profit at the Ebor meeting when favourites come from stall 2. Watch out for that. 7 winning favs on the last 9 occasions favourites came from Stall 2.
As to trainers, we return to laying. Mark Johnston has not had a winning favourite in 14 runnings. Richard Fahey has only 1 winning favourite in 11 at the Ebor. Saeed Bin Suroor has not had a winning favourite in 8 runnings.
So folks these are the favourite stats at this week’s York Ebor meetings. Favourites look eminently layable under the above circumstances, apart from then you find a favourite running in Stall 2!!
Good luck, and may the lay force be with you.