Well, what a fine three days it’s been for my ‘each way probability’ selections – which I share with What Really Wins Money subscribers at their section of the www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk website.
Tuesday’s 11.5 odds winner was followed up by Wednesday’s 16.5 and 4.32 winners – as well as some good placed horses (remember we are betting each way, so you do get a return when horses finish in the top three) – and Thursday’s 11.5 winner (just over 10/1 in old money).
On 5 February saw a third-placed horse at odds of 11.88, paying out 2.81 for the place (basically meaning you get your whole stake back and a little profit too, and your horse didn’t even win).
Other highlights included a horse at 16.06, which came third, returning nice odds of 4.01 for just placing (3/1 in old money).
Two other horses placed at odds of 2.2 and 1.66, and we had a cracking winner at 15.5 in the shape of Club House in the 305 Lingfield.
On 5 of February, out of 5 selections, we had a third place and a winner: Abi Scarlet at odds of 11.5 to win and 2.53 to place.
And only yesterday, I bagged another 11.5 winner in a horse called Munaawib.
So What Really Wins Money subscribers, check out the each way selections at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. They’re free, they’re done daily, and they’re there for you!
It seems, then, that this each way probability idea of mine has legs…
This is not the first time it’s produced a big priced winner.
To remind you of this idea:
1) Look for 8/9 runner races. Ideally these races will have a short-priced favourite and at least three obviously priced outsiders (see the example below).
500 Kempton BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Daneglow, 4/1 Balatina, 11/2 Fantasy Invader, 6/1 Vhujon, 7/1 Ishetoo, 12/1 Brandywell Boy, 20/1Kaylee, 25/1 Jemimaville, 25/1 Lady Rain.
2) Using the Racing Post betting forecast, select two horses. The first, your ‘usual’ selection, will be a horse who looks like he will place in the first three at least (normally second to fourth in the betting). Your second, your ‘speculative’ selection, will not be an outsider but will be a bigger-priced horse. We hope in this case that the unpredictability of horse racing plays into our hands.
Back these two selections each way.
By backing two horses, we increase our chances of at least one of the horses finishing in the first three in the betting, thus reducing losses should the horse place and not win.
This is but one idea of many I am juggling with presently. I have, for instance, also been following with interest the performance of penalised horses on the All Weather.
Here’s an example of a penalised horse:
A penalised horse is any horse with a ‘6x’ or a ‘12x’ after its name, in handicap races.
Laying these horses has produced a very impressive profit. One swallow doesn’t make a spring, and I acknowledge I have only a few months’ worth of data to hand (I would prefer at least a year’s worth of data).
I share with you though, as invariably these penalised runners are short-priced because they were ‘last time out winners’, and to simple level stakes, they’ve produced this sort of a profit graph…
This is the profit graph, laying to £10 stakes, since November 2013:
Are penalised horses really stopped in their tracks by that additional 6 or 12 pounds they are ‘penalised’ for winning last time? It looks like it.
I need to check the odds of all selections, and monitor for a while longer. It looks positive, don’t you think, as a possible lay strategy? As with the bulk of my ‘Home-Grown’ ideas, no form reading is required: just an ability to look for a ‘6x’ or a ‘12x’ after a horse’s name.
If you’ve got any ideas you want checking out, then get in touch with me. This idea, incidentally, came from an article written in What Really Wins Money by our Statman, Sean Trivass. His articles are well worth a read.
Indeed, this February’s What Really Wins Money will be a Guinness-stained Cheltenham special. We have the Patriarch opening his betting vaults on tried and tested Cheltenham profit makers.
The Statman will be looking at Cheltenham from a statistical perspective. Andrew David will be providing his Cheltenham selections nice and early to enable you to get the bigger prices (and Andrew has a very respectable Cheltenham record). And I’ll be taking you through some key trends and stats I find, not only in the newsletter, but here in the eletter as well.
Once more unto the breach…
I had to, rather reluctantly, attend a wedding last weekend, which meant I missed out on a nice long DRT live chat session, where we eagerly sniff out some big-odds back bets and short-odds lay bets. (I regaled you with my 1.06 lay of Bayern Munich last week: a £6 liability which made me £95!)
The live chat will be back this Saturday, and I might even wedge in a session tonight if the matches are of sufficient qualify.
Do take a look at the DRT review posts which appear from time to time at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. They give you a good idea of the accuracy of the research I do and the success of any trades placed on in-play football matches in reaction to that research.
I’m off now to watch the Winter Olympics Opening Ceremony. I hear the Village People and Bronski Beat are headlining: two of Putin’s favourite bands.
Have a great weekend.
This article first appeared on What Really Wins Money. Read more and comment here