Well, we had two placed horses in the 1000 Guineas and 2000 Guineas, with Barney Roy the nearest winner. It turned into an Aidan O’Brien love-in again.
I wrote recently about the draw bias on the Flat. Did you notice the draw bias at Chester this week?
Look at the results of all of the 5-furlong races. The bookies know that the draw bias over 5 furlongs favours the inside draw.
All 5-furlong races at Chester this week have been won by either the favourite or second-favourite; horses which coincidentally happen to run from that inside draw.
So, note the 15:00 Chester and 16:35 Chester this afternoon. Check the market and check the odds of those with a favourable draw. And play if you want? A focus on the first two in the betting should suffice if past patterns can be replicated today.
Another Alan Partridge moment!
No I am not staying in a Travelodge and presenting Radio Norfolk’s morning show, I am referring to our Alan’s catch-phrase, ‘A-ha’!
And I had an ‘a-ha’ moment this week. I get them from time to time. They are mini-breakthroughs in finding another profitable horse racing strategy that can hopefully keep us in profit long-term.
(Other ‘a-ha’ moments include the Two-Horse Race Placers strategy, which has profited since 2013, so an ‘a-ha’ moment is well worth noting.)
I asked myself this question: is there any way that we can earn a target profit per race without the need for loss-retrieval staking?
Loss-retrieval staking usually accompanies any-target-profit-per-race staking plans.
There is a way. Some may not like it but it is making money. Focus on the PLACE market at Betfair, rather than the Win market, with certain chosen odds-on favourites.
Here’s the performance in 2017 using a specific set of short-odds favourites, backed in the place market.
Here we look to win a certain amount per race (a certain percentage of the betting bank which will increase as the betting bank grows).
Initial profits are very enticing. I think of this more of an investment plan, rather than looking for that big-odds winner to sky-rocket the betting bank.
There’s no loss-retrieval. Losses are taken on the chin.
By backing short-priced favourites in the Place market, we expect consistent returns, but sacrifice that consistency with the short odds in the Place market.
I’ll be writing an article soon on this target-profit-per-race ‘investment vehicle’ for What Really Wins Money but wanted to plant the seed in your mind.
Short odds can make money, despite what the conventional wisdom says about ‘value’ being the only way you will profit long-term.
Email me if you want an update on results.
Have a great weekend!