Thanks to Andrew David for an excellent eletter last Fridayl. It certainly generated some great feedback .
I’m heading back to Guernsey in the Channel Islands ( the home of Matt Le Tissier – I taught him all his football skills) for Christmas and to celebrate my Mum’s 80th Birthday! And she is still insisting on swimming on Boxing Day at Cobo Bay. She is built of stout stuff, or rather she’ll have been on the stout stuff,swimming in that cold!
As Christmas is soon upon us, I thought I would venture to Leopardstown on 26th and 27th December, over the last 10 years, and identify for you the best performing scenarios for favourites at that specific meeting and time.
The first thing to note is that laying all favourites would have made a 20 point profit. So, we may have to become layers over Boxing Day and the 27th December at Leopardstown?
There have been only 3 winning favourites in 22 runnings of Class 2 races at Leopardstown on 26th/27th December, and only 3 winning favourites in 17 runnings of Class 3 races. You might want to look elsewhere in these races.
A marginal 18 points profit has been made laying favourites in 2 mile 1 furlong and 3 mile races at Leopardstown over Christmas. Not spectacular but giving us an indication of where, perhaps, to eye the bigger prices.
16 points profit and 12 points profit has been made laying favourites in hurdles and handicaps at Leopardstown.
Wouldn’t you just know it….the 2 big boys Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins have generated 20 points profit for the favourite layers. Only 3 winners in 16 for Gordon Elliott at Leopardstown – too many mince pies for the horses?
This Boxing Day and 27th December, at Leopardstown, it seems we get our laying boots on!
Kempton on Boxing Day is another matter! 13 points profit already over the last 10 years to Betfair SP has us thinking backing favs rather than laying favs?
Only 1 winning favourite last year on Boxing day came in at 1 /8 odds! Time for a correction 2019?
Class 2 Races at Kempton yielded a 17 points profit for Favourite backers to Betfair SP. A barren 2018 though but a solid 2017. Correction time again in 2019?
Only 2 winners in 12 runnings over the last 10 years over 2 miles 5 furlongs suggests leaving favourites be in those races.
No winners in 7 runnings over 1 mile 4 furlongs and no winners in 6 over 1 mile 6 furlong races at Kempton on Boxing Day has us looking elsewhere.
8 and 10 runners races saw combined 20 points profit to Betfair SP and 17 points profit to Industry SP.
The next time we speak, I will be freezing my vernaculars off and wondering why the Friar Tuck I left the magnificent Siam Winter. As BA Baracas might say ‘you crazy fool’.