I don’t know about you, but I will be trying to avoid coverage of the marriage between (suspiciously) ginger Harry and Meghan Sparkle. I did place a bet on Arsene Wenger to take Meghan Sparkle down the aisle (seeing as he has some time on his hands this Saturday), but that looks like a losing bet.
Thankfully, there are some listed racing this Saturday and the small matter of the FA Cup final between Chelsea and Man Utd.
What’s your angle for the FA Cup final?
I look at past results as a possible pattern. Since 2010 we see 1-0, 1-0, 2-1, 1-0, 3-2 (2-2 fulltime), 4-0, 2-1 (1-1 fulltime), 2-1.
The culprit for recent high-scoring matches has been Arsenal, with their 3-2, 4-0 and 2-1 in three of the last four matches.
Chelsea have appeared four times in the FA Cup Final since 2008-9 and we see 2-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-1 (loss).
Do we have a possible 2-1/1-2 Correct Score angle with this Chelsea side in the FA Cup finals?
Man Utd were last in the final in 2015-16 and drew 1-1 at fulltime vs Crystal Palace. The goals came very late.
That’s the recent results. They point to a potential 2-1/1-2 Correct Score (I would use an in-play bookie/betting exchange – if the match is 1-1 early on, 2-1 and 1-2 scorelines odds will reduce and may allow a cash out).
Let’s look at season form for those sides vs fellow top-five sides…
Three 2-1 scorelines for United at home vs the top-five. Away from home, United scored two goals vs first and third, a 0-0 vs Liverpool, and 1-0 win vs Chelsea.
Chelsea wins vs the top-four at home were 1-0. They saw three 1-0s in four matches at home. Away from home they scored and conceded in the League with 1-0, 2-1, 1-2, 1-1.
Which team form will turn up? The teams scoring and conceding, or winning 1-0?
Man Utd have scored two goals at least in each of their last five matches in the FA Cup, eye-catchingly beating Tottenham 2-1. Chelsea scored 2+ goals in three of their last four FA Cup matches.
I will stick with 2-1 /1-2 The odds are about 14 for both scorelines on Betfair. That’ll do me. You might want to back 0-0 at 6.8 in case the ultra-defensive United turn up.
And so to the Lockinge…
The Lokinge Stakes takes place at 15:40 at Newbury tomorrow.
Will past trends serve to provide a shortlist?
Ten of the last 12 winners have been favourite or joint-favourite. That is quite a stat. The other two winners were 8/1, which suggests there is unlikely to be a surprise in the Lokinge.
If we focus on horses 8/1 and lower, that leaves us with Rhododendron, Addeybb, Limato, and Beat the Bank.
It can’t be that easy can it?
Our very own Patriarch over at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk wrote an article recently on ‘Handicap improvers’. It has been on great form. His two qualifiers for the Lokinge are Addeybb and Zabeel Prince (14/1) currently. That would be two ticks for Addeybb.
For me therefore, Rhododendron and Addeybb would be shortlisted. Given A.P. O’Brien’s liking for surprising us, Lancaster Bomber and Deauville each way may run well at bigger odds.
Good luck with your plays! The above is my plan to avoid the Ginger/Sparkle wedding!