The new golf season is upon us as the stars head out to the Middle East. Golf is a sport I am keen to tackle, both as a hobby and as a betting medium.
I’ve been tracking a couple of golf tipsters and think personally that we if aim for low risk consistent pay-outs, rather than trying to pick a winner in a field of 150+ golfers, we’ll have a greater chance of success.
I admit, I play golf a lot like Woods – Victoria Woods – and know that accuracy is all. A few centimetres out can be catastrophic. It is this attention to detail which makes selecting a winner (at the tempting huge odds) so difficult.
This week, I’ll start recording some ideas, such as participating in three-ball betting and top-10 finish betting. I think the key to success could be in this three-ball betting market. Here’s how a three-ball betting market looks at www.betfair.com:
If we lay Rory McIlroy, for instance, at 2.18, we have Stephen Gallacher and up-and-coming young rookie Tiger Woods playing for us. Eighteen holes is a long way, with many shots and putts required. An errant drive from young Rory can open up the match for last year’s tournament winner Gallacher, or Tiger Woods.
I am always attracted to laying in three-outcome markets (as you’ll see later with Bayern Munich), because you always have two other outcomes running for you.
I’ll be keeping track of the performance of the shortest priced three-ball player and see if we have a good laying angle into the game of golf. Stay tuned… Oh, and ‘FORE!’ – I’m just about to hit an iron shot!
Laying the 0-0 score line – a new approach
I’ve been a busy DRT’er this week (DRT stands for Delay, React, Trade which is my philosophy for in-play football trading).
We had a particularly successful live chat football trading mid-week, as I added another 1.06 lay success to my growing collection, and another player to my Christmas list.
The match in question featured Stuttgart v Bayern Munich. Stuttgart scored first. Time to lay them, as we expect Bayern Munich to get back into the match.
And indeed they do. The score is 1-1.
And the score remained 1-1. This is most unlike Bayern Munich, who are so dependable.
80 minutes. It’s still 1-1… 90 minutes It’s still 1-1…
Now my interest piques. I delay, and delay, and then pounce. I lay the draw at odds of 1.06 (meaning that for every £6 risked, the potential profit is £100). And I tell my live chatters to do the same!
And lo and behold, this is what happens…
Yes, my new close friend Alcantara scored a 93rd-minute winner to provide me, and DRT live chatters, with a very nice, erm, Chinese New Year present!
Thanks Mr. Alcantara!
And there’s more! How to back a 1.12 shot at 5.3 (4/1)
It was a good week for DRT. Those of you who followed the FA Cup couldn’t help but notice Watford beating Man City by two goals to nil until the 59th minute (much to the delight, no doubt, of Elton John and husband David Furniture-Polisher).
Cue the comeback of all comebacks: Manchester City, at home, 2-0 down? No way!
So back them! They were available to back, in-play, at odds as high as 5.3 (just over 4/1), which, given there was over 30 minutes of football to play, was another Chinese New Year present! Oh, and Manchester City won 4-2.
It is matches like these where you make the big money. And it’s matches like these which I highlight in my DRT live chats.
Do take a trial run, if you’d like. I do hours and hours of research for you, and provide live commentary most weekends as we dig out the big winners.
As an aside…
As a spin-off of DRT, I have taken a new look at 0-0 laying. This looks to be a great market to focus on. After all, which team plays for a 0-0? (Apart from Crystal Palace that is, although they play for 0-0, but win 1-0 under Tony Pulis.)
The problem with laying 0-0s is the size of the odds. So why not look at the 0-0 Halftime Score market?
The odds tend to start at about 4.1 or just over (and will be a little bigger for your Barcelonas and Real Madrids).
And there’s some stats to help you out. Go to my trusty companion www.soccerstats.com: there is an actual column devoted to halftime score lines… Here it is:
As a 0-0 halftime layer, you want to see goals before halftime. What can you see with Arsenal? I can see five 0-0s in their last seven matches at halftime. So perhaps Arsenal are not an ideal team to focus on for halftime 0-0 lays?
At the bottom of www.soccerstats.com there is a table devoted to halftime score lines for home and away sides…
As you can see, Arsenal at home have had four 0-0s at halftime, and away they have had four 0-0s at halftime. These stats don’t make me confident.
I’ve started to list matches and their odds when I think there will be a goal before halftime. So far, so good. This could be a good niche you could work. The Halftime Score market is found at www.betfair.com, within in-play football coupon matches.
Here’s another trick to reduce your risk. Wait. Delay.
Wait for 15 minutes and if the match is still 0-0, lay 0-0 halftime score at much lower odds than pre-match.
Give it a try. I’ll be reporting back on my performance soon and may start posting the selections at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk.
And for you horsey folk
I shared an idea with you recently regarding the All Weather venues (look at today’s racing card and you’ll see four different All Weather venues).
A simple idea was to lay the favourite in the worse performing races for favourites at All Weather venues.
It’s easy to find a qualifying race:
Click on ‘FAVOURITES’, and in the box which pops up, look for the race type with the smallest percentage of winners. At Lingfield, therefore, two-year-old handicaps (known as ‘nurseries’) and four-year-old handicaps would be the races to focus on.
Sixteen of the last 20 favourites have lost their races. Do note that as we are dealing with favourites, there will be clusters of winners, but long-term, this idea is proving profitable.
Paper trade if you like, and see for yourself; and if you’re a member of What Really Wins Money, I post selections for free at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk.
I’m off now. Watch out for those short-priced teams getting into all sorts of trouble this weekend, and make sure you pounce when they do.
Have a great weekend… ‘FORE!’ – I hit yet another errant iron shot.
Read More: Profit from the new golf season
The Steve Davidson publishing house is well regarded by us and by bettors the world over. Steve’s products are almost always worth a look and his approach to horse racing is often slightly different and novel – and therefore always merits our interest.
Steve is a no-nonsense type, always totally hype-free. But this recent product from him has left us a bit worried that he’s had a knock on the head, because it’s unlike anything he’s ever sold before.
Mozan’s Numerology is a self-selection method for horse racing that’s been around for decades.
Mozan was not the divisor of the method, but the name of a horse that won the Calcutta Cup in the 1920s with odds of 100/1.
The actual method is somewhat mystical, utilising numerology: the science of numbers. Numbers are associated to letters, and the numbers are then applied to the horses’ names, the race name, date and amount or runners.
Steve has obviously been aware of this method for a while, but has only recently seen a way of making money from it.
He couldn’t have sold the system itself, because it’s freely available on the Internet and has been no secret since its creation in 1925. However, the techniques within the system are a bit difficult to get your head around AND once you do, the selection process is quite lengthy time-wise.
One race, for example, will take you about 20 minutes to get a selection out of.
In this age of information, we don’t always have time to dedicate to such methods, so Steve is giving the actual workings of the system away for free, but is offering a tipping service which you can subscribe to for £19.97 a month (no money-back guarantee), with the claim of 149 points in 6 days and free software that alerts you to upcoming races in which the Mozan’s Numerology method can be used.
The main reason why I wonder if Steve has had a knock on the head is because the system manual that he offers is so terribly written. It’s in dire need of a page-one rewrite and a comprehensive edit after that.
Many passages make absolutely no sense at all, and further research into the Mozan’s Numerology method will be absolutely necessary. Only then will you begin to get an inkling of the idea behind it.
Steve’s manuals are usually so concise and well written that I wonder if he’s even had a read through of this one. It’s 80 pages long and – no offence to the Indian origins of this method – it’s obviously been written in Pidgin English.
Steve admits on the sales page for Mozan’s Racing Numerology that ‘Opinions range from intense scepticism to lyrical waxing of profitable results obtained,’ before stating that he has ‘found results overall to be profitable’.
I’m not averse to a bit of Eastern philosophy and a bit of the metaphysics umbrella that numerology falls under (even if its adherents will argue it’s a science), so I was interested in the Mozan’s methodology – all three of them!
Steve’s email tips focus on method one as the preferred method, and there were indeed some big winners in September 2013: £32.85 won on Hoodna, £42 won on Silver Rime and 34 won on Taghrooda.
Method One of Mozan’s Numerology is focused on primarily because Methods Two and Three result in too many selections.
Some claim that Mozan’s Numerology can find 80% of the winners of a days races – although we must state that such a figure is NOT quoted on Steve Davidson’s sales page.
Our first few selections actually were correct, which was a very spooky time in our trial. Then a loser was picked and the results banded around for the rest of the trial.
After 120 selections, 41 became winning bets, giving a 34% strike-rate and providing only a few points profit. This figure is around the one-in-three figure that is universally believed to be the chance of picking the winner if always betting on the favourite. Perhaps this is coincidence – further monitoring might be desired by some.
If Mozan’s Numerology was really scientific – it would be without room for error – or at least not have enough room for error that could explain away picking losing selections 66% of the time.
So, to conclude, the method is interesting, and we dearly would love for it to work 100% of the time (obviously), but as a tipping service you’re really placing your faith in a strange and mystical methodology, when perhaps stats-based form is what you really should be looking at, so we cannot advise you to sign up to Steve Davidson’s email tipping service.
What would be better than a tipping service would be a piece of software that makes all the calculations for you AND is back-testable to see how the method fared over a great many historical races.
Now THAT really would interest me.
Read More: Mozan’s Racing Numerology Tipping Service Review
Well, what a fine three days it’s been for my ‘each way probability’ selections – which I share with What Really Wins Money subscribers at their section of the www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk website.
Tuesday’s 11.5 odds winner was followed up by Wednesday’s 16.5 and 4.32 winners – as well as some good placed horses (remember we are betting each way, so you do get a return when horses finish in the top three) – and Thursday’s 11.5 winner (just over 10/1 in old money).
On 5 February saw a third-placed horse at odds of 11.88, paying out 2.81 for the place (basically meaning you get your whole stake back and a little profit too, and your horse didn’t even win).
Other highlights included a horse at 16.06, which came third, returning nice odds of 4.01 for just placing (3/1 in old money).
Two other horses placed at odds of 2.2 and 1.66, and we had a cracking winner at 15.5 in the shape of Club House in the 305 Lingfield.
On 5 of February, out of 5 selections, we had a third place and a winner: Abi Scarlet at odds of 11.5 to win and 2.53 to place.
And only yesterday, I bagged another 11.5 winner in a horse called Munaawib.
So What Really Wins Money subscribers, check out the each way selections at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. They’re free, they’re done daily, and they’re there for you!
It seems, then, that this each way probability idea of mine has legs…
This is not the first time it’s produced a big priced winner.
To remind you of this idea:
1) Look for 8/9 runner races. Ideally these races will have a short-priced favourite and at least three obviously priced outsiders (see the example below).
500 Kempton BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Daneglow, 4/1 Balatina, 11/2 Fantasy Invader, 6/1 Vhujon, 7/1 Ishetoo, 12/1 Brandywell Boy, 20/1Kaylee, 25/1 Jemimaville, 25/1 Lady Rain.
2) Using the Racing Post betting forecast, select two horses. The first, your ‘usual’ selection, will be a horse who looks like he will place in the first three at least (normally second to fourth in the betting). Your second, your ‘speculative’ selection, will not be an outsider but will be a bigger-priced horse. We hope in this case that the unpredictability of horse racing plays into our hands.
Back these two selections each way.
By backing two horses, we increase our chances of at least one of the horses finishing in the first three in the betting, thus reducing losses should the horse place and not win.
This is but one idea of many I am juggling with presently. I have, for instance, also been following with interest the performance of penalised horses on the All Weather.
Here’s an example of a penalised horse:
A penalised horse is any horse with a ‘6x’ or a ‘12x’ after its name, in handicap races.
Laying these horses has produced a very impressive profit. One swallow doesn’t make a spring, and I acknowledge I have only a few months’ worth of data to hand (I would prefer at least a year’s worth of data).
I share with you though, as invariably these penalised runners are short-priced because they were ‘last time out winners’, and to simple level stakes, they’ve produced this sort of a profit graph…
This is the profit graph, laying to £10 stakes, since November 2013:
Are penalised horses really stopped in their tracks by that additional 6 or 12 pounds they are ‘penalised’ for winning last time? It looks like it.
I need to check the odds of all selections, and monitor for a while longer. It looks positive, don’t you think, as a possible lay strategy? As with the bulk of my ‘Home-Grown’ ideas, no form reading is required: just an ability to look for a ‘6x’ or a ‘12x’ after a horse’s name.
If you’ve got any ideas you want checking out, then get in touch with me. This idea, incidentally, came from an article written in What Really Wins Money by our Statman, Sean Trivass. His articles are well worth a read.
Indeed, this February’s What Really Wins Money will be a Guinness-stained Cheltenham special. We have the Patriarch opening his betting vaults on tried and tested Cheltenham profit makers.
The Statman will be looking at Cheltenham from a statistical perspective. Andrew David will be providing his Cheltenham selections nice and early to enable you to get the bigger prices (and Andrew has a very respectable Cheltenham record). And I’ll be taking you through some key trends and stats I find, not only in the newsletter, but here in the eletter as well.
Once more unto the breach…
I had to, rather reluctantly, attend a wedding last weekend, which meant I missed out on a nice long DRT live chat session, where we eagerly sniff out some big-odds back bets and short-odds lay bets. (I regaled you with my 1.06 lay of Bayern Munich last week: a £6 liability which made me £95!)
The live chat will be back this Saturday, and I might even wedge in a session tonight if the matches are of sufficient qualify.
Do take a look at the DRT review posts which appear from time to time at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. They give you a good idea of the accuracy of the research I do and the success of any trades placed on in-play football matches in reaction to that research.
I’m off now to watch the Winter Olympics Opening Ceremony. I hear the Village People and Bronski Beat are headlining: two of Putin’s favourite bands.
Have a great weekend.
Read More: Each-way-tastic!
Firstly, let me state uncategorically that Today’s Winning Selections – a horse race betting system from Jonathan Wood – is basically a recycled All Weather racing system.
The major clue for this (besides the system’s apparent familiarity) is that the PDF manual that details the Today’s Winning Selections method mentions Great Leighs as a suitable race track at which to use this system.
And perhaps it would have been – for a nine-month period at least. Great Leighs opened in April 2008 and went into administration in January 2009. It has remained close ever since.
This immediately leads me to suppose that Jonathan Wood has recycled and re-written a system in order to make a quick buck off it.
The price reflects this: just £8.95 – cheap enough to make a lot of sales, and low-price enough for a vast majority of people to decide NOT to bother trying to claim the 60-day unconditional money-back guarantee (via Clickbank).
There’s a scarcity tactic at use too, urging that only 30 copies would be available (despite the fact we all received many emails advertising this product). Only having 30 copies available means that Jonathan would have gone to the trouble of creating and marketing a sales page for the grand total potential earnings of around £270 if he sells all 30 copies.
Then Jonathan – out of the kindness of his heart – offers £100 out of his own pocket to anyone who doesn’t make money from the system in the first two months.
If we take all this at face value, then he’s seriously going to risk being out of pocket!
Then there’s the prerequisite screengrabs that he uses – not just of his bank account with tens of thousands of pounds in, but this:
The words that precede this picture are as follows: ‘I earn a lot more than a full time income. Put it this way, I was pulling in a six figure salary every year in my job.’
So, this is proof of him earning six figures?!
Can you see the obvious doctoring of the pay-slip? It’s expertly done and very subtle… I know what you’re thinking: it’s akin to the special effects of films such as Gravity. I’ll give you a clue: it’s none of the numbers that have been (expertly) blurred out – none of the blurry numbers that you can still read beneath the blur. Oh, and there’s a red ring around it. I know you reaaaaaaaaally need to look carefully, but that ‘5’ looks to me as if it’s been added to make ‘622’ into ‘5622’.
See what I mean? No? Must just be my eyes then 😉
So who is Jonathan Wood? He says: ‘I have been developing software and systems in betting for 6 years now…. successfully I might add […] I genuinely have been developing systems and softwares in betting that have generated a full time income. In fact, when I say a full time income… I am being modest.’
Anyway, using Today’s Winning Selections, this ‘veteran punter’ supposedly went from having ‘£12.56 in his betting account to £2,843.01 in just 5 days using this ultimate new system’… and there’s a reported strike-rate of a whopping 93.5%.
The PDF details a system for handicap racing at All Weather tracks. The manual is clear but the system is nothing revolutionary and there is much in there that is out of date. You check the Sporting Life racecards and try and check bookies’ odds at 9.00 a.m., which is usually too early for any odds to be posted.
The advice is for 1-point stakes from an assumed 100-point bank, but the bank size is never defined. It’s a simple and quick form-based, jockey-based selection process.
Day one resulted in the loss of 3.7 points, but we received an email celebrating the first day’s winnings. This is clearly a template email programmed to go out to new subscribers after their first day, and makes the bold assumption that everyone’s first day is a wining one.
After 6 weeks, we recorded 147 runners with 67 of them providing some sort of monetary return to the bank. This 45.6% strike-rate is less than half of the 93% strike-rate blurted out on the sales page.
There was a small profit of 7 points, but it’s a lot of effort for little reward, and we’re not inclined to recommend this product at all. The marketing is verging on insulting and there’s nothing new about the system. Though it might have some merit, it feels rehashed and recycled.
Read More: Today’s Winning Selections Review
I’ve just put the finishing touches to February’s edition of What Really Wins Money, which is traditionally the Cheltenham edition – and there are loads of angles for readers to investigate in good time for March’s extravaganza.
Andrew David (he of the Little Acorns and Legacy and Saver systems) takes us through all of the major races, and with a specific each way focus.
And for those of you still unconvinced that each way betting is a real potential money-maker, well I bagged another 18.74-odds winner this week to add to last week’s superb run for my own each way selections (free to readers of What Really Wins Money at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk).
Andrew rightly argues that Cheltenham is a great festival for each way betting because of its big field handicap races, the knowledge that each horse will be there on merit and not just making up the numbers, and the icing on the cake: some bookmakers will be paying out for five places in some races (if you read last week’s eletter you’ll know each way terms are typically for three places).
The Statman concludes that it’s the Irish we should side with in March’s festival, but you’ll have to get a copy of February’s WRWM to find out which races and at what specific distances the Irish-trained horses excel.
The Patriarch puts his years of experience to good use and offers some sagely advice for how to tackle the festival, and the key piece of advice: choose your battles.
I go in depth in February’s newsletter into the phenomenon I spoke about last week: that of penalised horses being potentially good laying bets.
Lucy Collins continues her Seven Pillars to Betting Success (she’s on Pillar Five this February) with a specific look at what she calls ‘psychology trading’ of the markets at www.betfair.com. She takes us through potentially profitable swing trading and trend trading examples. It’s all very unique and interesting stuff.
So there’s plenty to get your teeth into in February’s Guinness-soaked Cheltenham Special (it comes with a free empty can of Guinness for every reader).
Fulham are my new favourite football team!
What an interesting set of matches mid-week. Myself, and my Delay React Trade (DRT) live chatters embarked upon a profitable DRT session, the highlight being Fulham’s exploits against Liverpool.
This really is a great example of DRT in action…
Liverpool were 1.4 shots to win this match.
But Fulham score first. We lay Fulham…
Liverpool make it 1-1 and we trade out for a nice profit.
Hang on a sec: Fulham score again. We lay Fulham (again)…
Liverpool equalise (again) and we trade out for a nice profit (again).
The icing on the cake was the stat that we uncovered: Fulham had only had two draws all season. So what do you do when it’s 2-2 coming up to the 90th minute?
You lay the 2-2, of course!
My new best mate Steven ‘Stevie G’ Gerrard pops up with a 90th-minute winner to make it 2-3 to Liverpool and another match to remember for DRT trading.
Try it out for yourself this weekend (or better yet, come on board the DRT train, where I’ll do all of the footy research for you, and guide you to the best in-play stats during my live chats).
I’m off now to place my Cheltenham Bets early on (thanks Andrew, Statman and Patriarch).
Have a great weekend.
Read More: They’re all at it… Cracking Cheltenham that is!
If you are a regular reader of my ezines, you will be aware of my exciting new product called (CPP). It’s been available now for around 8 weeks and I am thrilled with the wonderful feedback I am receiving after such a short time. This is especially encouraging when you take into account Christmas and […]
The post Copy Paste Profit – Q&A appeared first on Book Seller Profits.
It’s difficult as a bookseller to decide not to list an item if the condition is ‘doubtful.’ Sometimes it can seem okay to list a book that may have a few defects but is in a readable condition (e.g. fit for purpose) especially if it is listed as acceptable and all defects are honestly described, […]
The post To list or not to list – the defect dilemma appeared first on Book Seller Profits.
Is it all about you?
Firstly today I have a small request. Every week I give free advice via my eletter on a topic which I think will benefit you(if you don’t already receive my newsletter you can sign up via the box at the end of this blog post)…
I do hope you are having nice weather where you are. It is so changeable at the moment: one minute its cold and the next it’s hot; I don’t know whether to wear summer or winter clothes from day to day. Nevertheless, we’re past the Summer Solstice, and summer should be here. With that comes […]
The post Why this type of book is a hot seller right now appeared first on Book Seller Profits.
This eletter is further to my last week’s subject: how to clean up dirty books! I was happy to receive feedback and suggestions. Here are a couple to share with you… The first email was from David: Hi Sharon Just read your latest email on cleaning books. I quite often use a piece of sponge […]
The post More tips on how to avoid this common buyer complaint… appeared first on Book Seller Profits.