As rare as an honest politician

It is not often you get a chance of a near 100/1 winner in a football match. It is as rare as an honest politician: so rare that I have to mention it here today…

I highlighted the opportunity for members of www.drt.club.

Dortmund led 4-0 at halftime in their league match on 25th November. Head over to http://www.soccerstats.com/team.asp?league=germany&stats=18-Dortmund and tell me what you see. I see a team conceding 3-2-4-3-2 goals in their matches prior to their match against Stuttgart.

I see a lay of Dortmund for the second half, a shot in the dark in case this happens again! 1.01 was available to lay. That is the equivalent of a near 100/1-winner.

The final score? 4-4. I couldn’t 4-king believe it!

It is a rare event indeed! It harks back to that Liverpool Champions League win under the Fat Spanish Waiter, doesn’t it? 3-0 down to Milan at halftime. 3-3 at full-time.

I suppose you can look for one of these yourself. Any 3-0 or 4-0 leads at halftime might be worth investigating, particularly in matches where the teams are closely matched. (Stuttgart, for instance, were top-five!)

Hail to pace

Elsewhere this week, I have been trying to find those all-elusive pace angles for you in horse races, so much so that I have joined a ‘pace predictor’ service which purports to give a pace angle for each race.

I do have some ideas to explore. Pace is something I am keen to investigate and use for betting systems in 2018! Stay tuned. I am getting closer to cracking this new aspect to UK horse racing.

Weekend racing

The Ladbroke Trophy Chase at 15:00 tomorrow at Newbury is the big race of the weekend.

The last 11 winners of this race were rated 145 or higher, so that is a great way to shortlist the race. At www.racingpost.com you can sort the race card by ‘OR’, which is the ‘Official Rating’.

Another interesting stat: ignore any horse which had a poor run last time out. Head off to the ‘Form’ section of the race card and shortlist for elimination horses who were beaten easily last time out.

Horses with fewer than eight races under their belts have not won since 2004.

Me? I like Davy Russell, the Irish jockey: his Whisper is a 15/2 chance each way.

Nicky Henderson won with an Irish Jockey in 2012 and 2013.

Present Man each way for me for Paul Nicholls, last year’s winner, and I will avoid Arnie’s Total Recall in favour of Willie Mullins’s bigger-odds Pleasant Company each way.

Good luck with your plays. Have a great weekend and remember it is a pre-Champions-League weekend. You know what that means: like Superman turning into Clark Kent, some major teams pre-Champions-League turn into Sunday League teams missing three players who are still in the pub!

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