I would like to follow on from last Friday’s eletter with an example of race reading which can be applied to those races this Flat season where form is limited (two-year-old horse races, typically).
This is a Novice race. We have the Betting Forecast at the base of the race card:
Now, follow the strategy from the last eletter. Compare the Betting Forecast odds to the bookmaker’s odds and note down any bookmaker’s odds which are significantly shorter than that Betting Forecast.
Here is my shortlist…
Cohen – 25/1 in the Betting Forecast; 12/1 with the bookmakers.
Olympic Odyssey – 16/1 in the Betting Forecast; 10/1 with the bookmakers.
M C Muldoon – 16/1 in the Betting Forecast; 10/1 with the bookmakers.
The result is shown below…
At 12.5 Betfair SP and 3.56 odds to place M C Muldoon was a welcome winner.
Coincidence? I’m not so sure. This happens a lot and is a great strategy for you to employ as the Flat season (minus any tangible recent form).
There is plenty of high-class Flat racing this weekend for you to apply this simple strategy to. Yes, it’s 1000 and 2000 Guineas weekend!
The 2000 Guineas begins tomorrow at 15:35 Newmarket. The first starting point must be with Aidan O’Brien-trained horses. He has won the race on five occasions since 2006.
Favourites also have an excellent record. Five favourites have won in the last seven runnings; the anomalies were a 40/1 and 14/1 winner.
There are three O’Brien runners in the 2000 Guineas – Saxon Warrior, Murillo, and Gustav Klimt. Murillo is the likely pace horse.
If you are used to in-play trading (dobbing) you might want to back Murillo pre-race and enter a lay bet in at half odds in-play. The hope is that Murillo will lead in this race and set it up for Saxon Warrior or Gustav Klimt.
Very little in the way of value if looking for a favourite – an O’Brien horse as Gustav Klimt is both!
On to the 1000 Guineas: it is the Aidan O’Brien show again. Wins in 2012, 2016 and 2017 were at odds of 25/1, 11/10 favourite, and 9/1. That makes life interesting. We may want to look at the bigger-priced horses for O’Brien on the Sunday.
Favourites have won three of the last four runnings, albeit one was a 7/1 co-favourite.
Stall draw may also be important. Stall winners have come from 11th, 16th, 3rd, 8th, 18th, 16th, 2nd, 7th, 4th, 13th, 8th and 7th. Do you see a pattern? Rarely do we see the low stalls win.
Sizzling, Sarrocchi and I Can Fly must be backed, for me, each way for O’Brien. As you see, recent wins have come from the horse few have expected (in this case, Happily the favourite).
I do not have jockey news for O’Brien, but would hope to see Seamie Heffernan and Donnacha O’Brien on the bigger-odds horses.
Good luck if you’re playing!
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