April is but a couple of days away, and it’s an ideal time for me to start looking into the Grand National.
I will focus on the winners of the Grand National in the last 11 years and see if there are any strong patterns to these winners across a number of categories.
No horse aged 7 or lower has won the National . Highest age was 11
The weight of the winners is between 143 and 163 pounds . With 14 lbs to 1 stone, limit your look at horses weighted 10 stone 3 lbs to 11 stone 9 lbs
8 of the 11 winners were at odds of 10/1, 14/1, 25/1 and 33/1
In the market.
5 winners in the last 11 years came within the first 6 in the betting. That’s knocking on the door of half of the winners.
3 winners were 14th, 15th and 16th favourites, and the other 3 were 21st, 28th and 32nd favourites.
I am not sure pace is applicable to a 4 mile + handicap chase but 7 of the last 11 runners were hold up horses. You can spot horse’s pace characteristics for free at www.attheraces.com and www.racinguk.com race cards.
Ignore all horses whose pace characteristic is ‘leader’.
Days since last run
8 of the last 11 winners last ran within the last 35 days.
Here’s a simple angle. Ignore last year’s winning trainer. 11/11 winners in the last 11 years had 11 different trainers.
Leighton Aspell won in 2014 and 2015 on a 25/1 horse. Pay attention this year if he rides a 25/1 shot!!
Trever Hemmings and Gigginstown House Stud have won the National twice each in the last 11 years. 2011, 2015, 2016, 2018 . Notice the recent record. Pay attention to these owners?
Runs in the last Month.
Noticeably 7/11 winners did not run within the last month.
Only 2 favourites out of 16 in the last 11 years ( note some joint favourites) have won the National, in 2008 and 2010.
10 of 16 favourites finished within the Top 6. Bookies such as Paddy Power do offer 6 places in the National if you want a decent chance of a simple each-way punt on the favourite.
This is a statistical view of the last 11 winners in the Grand National, as well as a look at favourites. I hope you find this of use .