All weather fav stats in an all-weather season

You can’t help but notice the increased frequency of all-weather racing . Look at today’s race card, tomorrow’s, and the next day’s.

With that in mind, I thought I’d look at 2 all-weather venues in each week’s eletter across 4 stats areas.

These criteria are

  • Distance
  • Number of runners
  • Days since last run
  • The Draw

My main focus is on the performance of the favourite ( number one ranked Starting Price )

Kempton

Favourite backers should look to focus on 6 furlong, 9 furlong, 10 furlong and 11 furlong races ( 8 furlongs is a mile, so 9 furlongs is 1 mile and 1 furlong).

The best profit is produced by backing to Betfair SP so note that. 69 points profit backing favourites in 6 furlongs. 80 points profit combined from 9-11 furlong races inclusive in the last 10 years.

For the layer, it is the middle distances which I’ve found to be consistently troublesome for favourites. 12 and 15 furlong races ( 1 mile 4 furlongs to 1 mile 7 furlongs) produced a combined 57 points profit for the layer.

9 and 11 runner races stand out massively profit wise for favourite backers. 123 points profit combined.

Favourite backers should focus only on horses who last ran within the last 38 days. The top 10 performers all came within this bracket.

So, favourite backers at Kempton, note

  • 9-11 furlong races ; 6 furlong races
  • 9 and 11 runner races to maximise profit
  • Favourite must have run within the last 30 days.

Layers focus on

  • 1 mile 4 furlong and 1 mile 7 furlong races

Lingfield

Using the same criteria – last 10 years and a focus on favourites – Lingfield’s stats tells us to focus on 6-8 furlong distances. Sprint distances are historically strong for favourites.

Again, middle distance races are good for the layer, 1 mile 4 furlong and 1 mile 5 furlong races are the most profitable for the layer.

7 , 10 , and 15 runner races are the most profitable for the favourite backer. 61 points profit for 7 runner races for favourite backers.

Note with 15 runner races, the return on investment has been 107.51% to Betfair SP and 87.07 to ISP. 7 winners in 13 races.

Ideally we want to focus on favourites running within 30 days. There is one anomolous stat. 52 days sees 12 wins from 20 runners coming back from running 52 days ago.

And to the draw, it seems clear. Those drawn 6/7/8/10 profit the most with 10/7 the best for Industry SP backers.

So at Lingfield,

  • 6-8 furlong races inclusive
  • Lay middle distance favourites 1 mile 4 furlongs and 1 mile 5 furlongs
  • 7, 10 and 15 runner fields maximise profit
  • Look for a favourite running within 30 days of his last run.

Next week, I’ll look at 2 more all-weather venues and the standout stats by distance, runners, days since last run and draw.

And onto the footy…

The Premier League returns this weekend ( hooray) and it’s the first test for lucky bar steward Ole at Man Utd. He couldn’t have had a weaker set of opening matches if he’d picked them himself. But now it’s the Spurs on Sunday.

As to Saturday, West Ham and Arsenal start us up. Statistically, both teams to score looks a shout but West Ham need to end their poor run of failing to score v the top 4. They play 5th. Only 1 win v top 12 for the Hammers  at home suggests struggles but the Arsenal have only 1 win in 6 away matches.

100% wins for Liverpool v 7th and lower should see them bounce back after 2 consecutive defeats in all competitions. Brighton, note, do score in their home matches. 1-2, 1-3 correct score?

No wins away for Fulham who are….away to Burnley. But Burnley are an Arthur Daley side. Would you trust them?

No draw in 10 for Cardiff and no draw in 9 and in 6 away for Huddersfield. Huddersfield have scored 2 goals only once away so may be vulnerable if leading.

With Watford 8th, Palace have a ‘look-away-now-if-you-are-a-Palace-fan’ record of scoring v top 9  0-0-0-2-1-0 goals scored at home v top 9 makes them vulnerable to a Watford side scoring 2-2-2-3-0-3-1-1 goals recently v 9th and lower ( Palace are 14th)

Leicester v Southampton. 2 new managers and a tidy defensive outfit in Leicester meeting a Saints scoring 6 in 2 under new manager but then 1-1-0 in their last 3 matches. Leicester may strangle the life out of the Saints today.

0-1-1-1-0-0-1-0 goals scored by Newcastle recently. How they’d love a Wor Jackie, Sumo, or Shearer. They’ve lost all matches v the top 7 and are away to 4th placed Chelsea.  2-0, 2-1, 3-0 potential scorelines for Chelsea who have 10 wins and a 0-0 v 12th and lower.

Onto Sunday, Bournemouth have conceded 2 goals in 9/11 matches but meet an Everton failing to score in their last 2 matches.

And onto Spurs and Man Utd. No draw this season for the Spuds.  Spuds have scored in their last 11 matches , as have Man Utd. Both teams scored in 3/4 Man Utd matches under Ole. Man Utd have scored and conceded in all away matches v the top 13. Other than that, we will find out Ole’s managerial credentials. This is not Cardiff, Huddersfield, Bournemouth or Newcastle!

I hope these stats help you out. Have a great weekend.

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