A taster from the Patriarch

This week I thought I’d share an article from the Patriarch from the What Really Wins Money vaults. Enjoy.

This month, the Patriarch is in a giving mood. Six systems in one from his betting archives and just in time for the Flat Season.

I know we are still in March but I can’t help thinking ahead to the golden racing months of summer – May, June, July and August – and, strangely enough, that is exactly when our old system for this month operates. It starts its selections on the 1st of May and ends on the 31st of August.

There are some other things I must tell you about it before getting down to its details – such as, it first appeared about 30-odd years ago and cost then £500. A bit expensive it would appear, but perhaps the vendor would try and justify the price by pointing out that it consists of six interlocking sections that could be regarded as six separate systems. It was handwritten, very neatly, on three full pages which I’ll give you exactly, except for some corrections I’ve had to make and bringing some other details up to date.

At the end I’ll give the results of one summer’s operations, which are quite interesting.

We’ll start with the general rules that apply to all six sections. We’ve already given the dates for use, and the paper to be used is, unsurprisingly, the Racing Post. Here are the general rules:

  1. Flat Racing only, Turf and All-Weather.
  2. Handicap races only with fields of 7 – 15 runners. Exclude handicaps for Ladies, Amateurs, Apprentices, Conditional races, Selling Handicaps, Nursery Handicaps and Invitation races.
  3. All possible qualifiers must have had at least two races in the current season and the last race must not have been more than 30 days previously.
  4. Must not be carrying more than 10 stone.
  5. At least 50% of the runners in the race must have an RP rating.
  6. Ignore any race where the top RP Rating is for more than two joint runners.

We’ll now move on to the first section of the system.

Section 1

  1. Qualifier must be top rated on RP ratings.
  2. Must be in the first three prices in the betting forecast.
  3. Must be in the top four weights with the following restrictions on field size. With 7 declared runners – top weight only. 8 declared runners – top two weights. 9-15 declared runners – top four weights.
  4. Must have finished no worse than 5th in both of its last two races.
  5. The form figure for the last race must be the same or better than the previous race (e.g. 55, 32, 41, etc) with one exception: form figures 12 are allowed.
  6. Topspeed best figure and latest one must be the same and not more than 10 points different, either way, from the RP rating.

Section 2

  1. Qualifier must be top rated on RP ratings and ridden by a claiming jockey.
  2. Must be forecast 1st or 2nd favourite.
  3. The last two form figures must be 42, 32, 22 or 12.

Section 3

  1. Qualifier must be the only runner in the race that won last time out.
  2. Must be forecast 1st or 2nd favourite.
  3. The last two form figures must be 41, 31, 21, 11.
  4. Must be in the top four ratings on RP ratings.
  5. Must be top or joint top rated by Topspeed.

Section 4

  1. Qualifier must be a distance winner that won its last race.
  2. Forecast 1st or 2nd favourite.
  3. In the top three RP ratings.
  4. In the top four weights with the following restrictions in field size. With seven declared runners – top weight only. With eight declared runners – top two weights only. With 9-15 declared runners – top four weights.
  5. The last form figure must be the same or better than the previous one.
  6. Topspeed best figure and latest one must be the same and not more than 10 points different, either way, from the RP rating.
  7. If a penalty carrier, penalty must not exceed 7lbs.
  8. No bet if ridden by a claiming jockey.

Section 5

  1. Must be top weight.
  2. Must be top on RP ratings.
  3. Must be 1st, 2nd or 3rd forecast favourite.
  4. Last form figure must be the same or better than the previous one.
  5. Topspeed best figure and latest one must be the same and not more than 10 points different, either way, from the RP rating.
  6. If the selection won its last race but is ridden by a claiming jockey today – no bet.

Section 6

  1. Must have been 1st or 2nd last time out and no worse than 5th in its previous race.
  2. Must be forecast 1st, 2nd or 3rd favourite.
  3. Must be in the top four published weights.
  4. Must be in the top three RP ratings.
  5. Must be in the top two ratings for Topspeed.
  6. The Topspeed figure must be equal to or up to 10 points higher than the RP rating.
  7. The Topspeed best figure and latest one must not be more than 2 points different.
  8. If the selection won its last race but is ridden by a claiming jockey today – no bet.

These then are the six sections but I don’t think we’ll have too many selections judged by the one summer’s results I have. Then there were 42 selections with 29 winners and a level stake profit of about 80 points. Nap bets are selections running within seven days of their last run and there were 11 of them with eight winners giving a profit of around 25 points. Also worth considering are the selections that are given by more than one section and there were 11 of them, again with a profit of nearly 30 points. And finally, the prices were a bit better than I expected with the biggest being 6-1 and not one was odds on.

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