Thanks to Andrew David for another excellent eletter last week. If you have any questions for Andrew, please email me at email@example.com
I have had some good results from my each way bets over at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk this past 2 weeks. So much so that I thought I would look at 8 runner races ( the shortest field to pay out 3 places) and the 4th favourite in such races.
Why 4th favourite? The 4th favourite is not an immediate market leader, but not necessarily described as outsiders.
So let’s take a look at what the form book says over the last 10 years.
Backing 4th favourites in 17 furlong and 8 furlong races ( that’s 2 miles 1 furlong and 1 mile races), has turned a 137 and 126 point profit to Betfair SP . Note here that Industry SP did not produce a profit in either case.
And note, I would recommend Betfair SP. I had a recent winner at Betfair SP odds of 18.06 which paid out a measly 9/1 to Industry SP.
The all-weather again grabs my attention. Backing 4th favourites in 8 runner races on all-weather venues has turned a 133 point profit to Betfair SP ( again Industry SP no profit). WOW!
Given what we know about the all-weather, Wolverhampton is the best course for backing 4th favourite in 8 runner races. 97 points profit to Betfair SP. Other notables include Taunton, and Wetherby with 94 and 87 points profit to Betfair SP. Note these latter 2 venues profit to Industry SP
Galloping tracks produce a 165 point profit to Betfair SP. Galloping tracks include Ascot , Ayr, Bath, Chepstow, Doncaster, Haydock Newbury, Newcastle, Newmarket, Nottingham, Redcar, Salisbury, Wetherby, Wincanton, Worcester, Yarmouth, York, Ffos Las.
It’s all exciting stuff. I’m going to begin recording 4th favourites in certain instances. Next week, I’ll continue looking at 4th favourites with other criteria such as race classification, Handicaps/Non Handicaps, Headgear, Pace, by Placed , days since last run, draw, Trainer and Jockey.
By the end of this exhaustive statistical look, we’ll have the foundations for a solid 4th favourite backing strategy.
And don’t forget betfair SP with those bigger odds selections. It really pays big in this 4th favourite case doesn’t it?