I will continue my look at 4th favourites in 8 runner races. Please remember that this statistical look is predominantly to determine if we can operate a stand-alone each-way strategy based on 4th favourites.
The profit figures I give you are for win only, but imagine the amount of times these selections finish 2nd and 3rd. We will actually get a return for each 2nd and 3rd when betting each-way. The odds for 4th favourites will be quite good too.
So let’s finalise the stats from last week.
Maidens, Mares and Conditional Jockeys races are the ones to focus on. 85, 70 and 60 points profits to Betfair SP backing 4th favourite in 8 runner race types like these.
4-6 year old races stand out. 107 points profit to Betfair SP . 3 year old races 85+ rated are next best with 70 points profit.
Standard leads the way, with 103 points profit to Betfair SP. No surprise as the all-weather and Wolverhampton dominated venue types
Good to Soft is next best with 86 points profit.
4th favourites in 8 runner races wearing blinkers has turned a 151 point profit to Betfair SP.
Leaders are key. 1211 points profit to Betfair SP when 4th favourites in 8 runner races are characterised as leaders.
Days since last run
15 days since last run again turns a 3 figure profit. 110 points profit to Betfair SP
27 and 21 days are next with 86 and 84 points profit.
As the all-weather is the outstanding area for backing 4th favourites in 8 runner races, let’s look at the draw.
Those drawn in stall 5 see 101 points profit. Stall 1 is next best with 75 points profit.
Mick Easterby stands out with 79 points profit to Betfair SP, and an impressive 102 points profit to Industry SP. I see a lot of 2nd and 3rd places so Easterby horses backed each-way may pay out well
Luke Morris, Tony Hamilton and Robert Havlin have 85, 71 and 69 points profit to Betfair SP over the last 10 years, on 4th favourites in 8 runner races.
The next step will be to not only look at winning 4th favourites in 8 runner races, but to find which of the above win only angles produces the best percentage of placed horses. That’s the key to each-way success!
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