So there I was, minding my own business, and working on the next What Really Wins Money newsletter, when all of a sudden I notice a certain Novak Djokovic has just lost the first set to Alexandr Dolgopolov in the Monte Carlo Masters.
Not just lost it, he was spanked 6-2.
Now, take note folks, that Novak was priced at 1.04 pre match. I.e. £100 stake will win you, erm, £4 less commission on Betfair.
In a continuation on my niche betting/delayed entry idea of recent eletters, let's look at how this trade played out.
Firstly I use Fairbot here. I backed Novak at odds of 1.29 initially for £100. I noticed this 1.04 shot at these odds and expected Djoko to be playing blindfolded with both hands and legs tied while trying to balance a glass of delicious Robinsons Orange Cordial on his head without spilling it.
I was happy with this bet. Extreme value. And to my increased pleasure, young Dolgopolov won the first set, and how! At this stage I see a 1.04 shot (or other words 1/25 on) priced at 1.91. It would be rude if I did not indulge again at that price. The 2 bets are arrowed below.
I am running at a loss above of £16.09 because, although the odds have decreased from 1.91, I still have a loss running from when I got involved at 1.29.
And so the fight back begins. Djokovic goes 2 games up in the 2nd set having broken serve quickly.
At this stage, as you see below, I am sitting on a £21.18 guaranteed profit as the odds plummet from a high of 1.91 to current 1.43.
I get out when the odds reach 1.27 initially, and then again at 1.21 in case the young scoundrel Dolgopolov decides to rain on my parade. A guaranteed £56 regardless of who wins (and remember the 2nd set is not over yet and there s a 3rd set to come.)
And there you have it. A perfect delayed entry trade, only this time on the tennis. Those brave souls could have kept their bet on Djokovic, knowing they had backed a 1/25 shot at nearer evens and hoped for the best. I was a little more cautious. IS that not the very definition of value?
So having shown you football in the previous weeks' posts, here's a spot of tennis. Will Nadal consent to go a set down this afternoon? Oh ye betting gods, hear my pleas!!
by Clive Keeling
Betting & Gambling Expert
Clive Keeling is the editor of What Really Wins Money trying and testing the latest betting systems, tipsters and strategies. You can sign up for his free weekly eletter here:
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