Yes folks, beginning of April, lots of shouts of "calm down, calm down" can only mean one thing, the Aintree Grand National meeting. And those poor Liverpool fans need some kind of a distraction!
And if you want to know how to be successful in the Grand National, well just ask my Gran. Her patented system involved the race card from the Daily Mail, and a pen.
Follow these sure fire steps for success:
1) Open up Race Card
2) Grasp pen in hand
3) Close eyes
4) Stab wildly at the paper. Where the pen penetrates the paper, the nearest horse is your Grand National bet.
She swore by it!
There are other ways of course. And one is the statistical viewpoint...
The statistical route to success in the Grand National
Check out these free stats from the at the races website - The angles into the Grand National are here:
So let's work through it and see what comes up. No horses over 11 stone 5 lbs for win only purposes, takes away 7 horses including the favourite!
Next we need to weed out horses who have not won over 3 miles or more ( 24 furlongs) - in compliance, Quiscover Fontaine, Tatenen,
No winner has been aged under 8 for 72 years, and horses 13 or over have not won since 1923 or even placed since 1969. This means we can dismiss Tharawat, Organised confusion, Viking Blond, and Our Island, as well as Black Apalachi and Hello Bud.
Caution re:- horses who have not run in the last 50 days, so question mark against Always Right, Any Currency, Arbor Supreme, Calgary Bay, Cappa Bleu, Chicago Grey, Giles Cross, Neptune Collonges, On his own, State of Play, Tatenen, Treacle, Vic Venturi, Viking Blond, West End Rocker. Although the statman does not dismiss horses who have not had a run in the last 50 days, for my purposes, I have dismissed them.
French Bred have a poor record so that's Neptune Collonges, Alfa Beat, Organised Confusion, Mon Mome, Swing Bill and Viking Blond dismissed.
So folks, I've done all the work for you, leaving us with In compliance, Abbeybraney, According to Pete, The Midnight Club, Deep Purple, Rare Bob, Killyglen, Midnight Haze, Planet of Sound, Postmaster,Sunnyhill Boy, Junior, BecauseIcouldn'tSee, Seabass, Neptune Equester, Shakalakaboomboom, and Smoking Aces.
It is these horses who should form a shortlist we can work with. Junior is the only horse in the list in the top 8 in the betting so would be of interest ( see below!).
And there's more as Jimmy Cricket would say.
Experience of these fences before would put a positive next to the following - In Compliance, According to Pete (not run in the National before), The Midnight Club, Deep Purple (experience at Aintree but not the National), Rare Bob (experience over fences but not National), Killyglen, Planet of Sound and Postmaster (ran at Aintree but not in National), BecauseIcouldn'tsee,Shakalakaboomboom (ran at Aintree, not in the National).
Ideally a horse should be in the first 8 in the betting (this will be at time of writing), and none of the above are in the current first 8. Killyglen and BecauseIcouldn'tsee are both just outside the current top 8.
Positive against horses who ran in last year's National, so that'll be Killyglen and BecauseIcouldn'tsee.
So there you have it folks, I would shortlist the horses with experience over the fences, and the 2 horses nearest the top 8 in the betting are Killyglen and BecauseIcouldn't see. So that's what the stats tell us. And I would be interested in Junior who made it through the shortlist process nearly to the end but importantly is in the current top 8 in the betting.
BUT, remember this is an extreme distance (4 mile 4 furlong), big field ( 44 runners), handicap chase. If asked what type of race makes the worst betting medium, 8 out of 10 punters would describe an extreme distance massive field handicap chase!!
Delayed Entry The Way To Value?
I received a number of emails asking for more information re niche trading, and the concept of delayed entry. And I have made up a very basic guide if you want one specific to football. Just email me.
Delayed entry is your way to create a value bet from short priced favourite. Quite simply we WAIT! That's it! We don't get involved at the start of a match, rather we hold tight, hope for a continued 0-0 in an inplay match (preferably til halftime) and then back our fancy at much better odds in play. It works, folks, IF you've done the research. Try it this weekend.
I'm off now to watch Killyglen and BecauseIcouldn'tsee both fall at the first fence in the National.
by Clive Keeling
Betting & Gambling Expert
Clive Keeling is the editor of What Really Wins Money trying and testing the latest betting systems, tipsters and strategies. You can sign up for his free weekly eletter here:
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