Greetings from me and my assistant, Dr Bunsen, from the Betting Lab. This week I have been looking at a number of strategies, but let's start with 2-horse races.
Betting on 2-horse races
Here's an example.
|BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Der Spieler, 9/4 Ainm Spartacus, 11/2 Galloping Gander|
This is the Racing Post Betting Forecast and I have noted just the first 3 runners. Can you see that this is a potential " 2-horse race" between Der Spieler and Ainm Spartacus with a bit of a "price gap" to the 3rd favourite Galloping Gander.
This got me thinking. We can approach these apparent 2 horse races from the following angles.
1) - A reverse forecast on Der Spieler and Ainm Spartacus.
2) - Laying both Der Spieler and Ainm Spartacus. After all one will lose, guaranteed, but if both lose, we win well.
3) - Why not back the 3rd favourite in the Betting Forecast (Galloping Gander in this case) either to win, or each way?
For instance, Galloping Gander actually won this race at 7/2. And on the same day we had:
|BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Carnac, 5/2 Mediterranean Sea, 7/1 Shifting Gold,|
And Shifting Gold won at 9/2.
I have recorded these "2 horse races" and have seen wins at 16/1 (1st April ), 10/1, 25/1, 14/1, 11/1, 10/1, 14/1 , and these are since the 22nd January.
There are a smattering of other winners at all prices up to 8/1. But there are a number of races where we get no return. It remains to be seen whether these winners (and remember the Betfair SP price for a 25/1 winner can be bigger - in this instance the winner was 35/1 on Betfair). A recent 14/1 winner was available to back at 19/1 at Betfair SP. These bigger prices help negate losses.
I need to analyse the price gaps, and the characteristics of winners and losers, and I'm sure you'll agree that if we can mould this into a betting system, it would serve well as you can literally bet and go, ideally using Betfair SP.
And elsewhere in the betting lab, Dr Bunsen has been looking at the performance of the first 5 favourites as both a backing and a laying vehicle; the performance of beaten favourites, backing 2nd favourites under certain conditions, under 1.5 goals lays and a whole lot more! So expect me to drip feed any positive feedback in coming eletters. Poor old Dr Bunsen needs a holiday.
Laying a 3-0 scoreline at half time
This is another niche I've mentioned in the past. A 3-0 scoreline is an interesting scoreline psychologically, especially when it occurs at halftime. Why?
Well think about it. The team 3-0 up will have an air of complacency about them. The opposition, though, will know that if they score first, 3-1 looks a lot weaker than 3-0. And they will remember it's only half time!
And we can exploit this. This was the case when West Brom and Newcastle played in the premiership recently.
A comfortable lead for Newcastle and they are available to lay at 1.07. Translated, this means that in order to win £100, our lay liability is £7.
And folks, remember this is the Premiership!!
I layed Newcastle at 1.07 for £143 , to give me a £10 liability as you can see above.
West Brom scored first. And as you can see, the odds rise dramatically because:
* This goal came early in the 2nd half.
* Newcastle were playing away from home so the home team scoring could be seen as a booster.
And having layed at 1.07 I can now back at 1.22 , with just that one West Brom goal scored.
And I make £16.70 guaranteed. Note I am using Fairbot from Binteko (you can see it here to execute trades on Betfair. You too can do this via free software such as JetBet, BetAngel Basic and Geekstoy.
A simple and logical trade, where we had at risk only £10. Add this to the Federer strategy I showed you in a recent eletter and you see that we can make some good money simply through niche based sports trading (such as focussing on World's top 5 tennis players when in trouble, and scorelines such as a 3-0 at halftime in the Premiership).
And another niche is to focus on top teams who go a goal down, particularly at home.
Wolves take the lead away to Man City.
By laying Wolves a goal up at odds as low as 2.94, I can back them at odds as high as 8.2 in order to execute another niche trade.
And whilst on the subject of Man City, here are 2 trades in one match. That match was Man City v Sunderland.
Firstly Sunderland score. 0-1. Lay Sunderland or back Man City.
Man City score to equalise. That's the first tradable profit!
Now after 54 minutes it's 1-3 to Sunderland. And here's where you can really speculate with low stakes for high reward. I personally backed Man City at odds of 32-34 for £10 from the profit I had already made.
So I'm sitting on £327 if City agree to win (please!!!), and a £15.51 profit on Sunderland and the draw (I originally made £25.51 backing City at higher odds after Sunderland scored first).
And so to the comeback!
City score 2 goals in the 85th and 86th minutes to make it unbelievably 3-3.
So, backing City at 34 initially allows me to lay them now at 5.6 to make a guaranteed £71.19 (I'm afraid I didn't have faith in a City outright win with only 5 minutes remaining).
I keep coming back to this niche trading malarkey because it works, and can work for you. Email me if you want greater detail. I can share how you'd approach a particular day, to how to spot these niches and how to execute successful trades. I would list likely matches and just look out for shocks in all sports, be it football, rugby, tennis, Gaelic football, whatever sport takes your fancy. A topical example? Let's say Rory Mcilroy at the Masters gets off to a slow start on the first day. His original price of 8.4 drifts out to 14, for instance.
Why not back him at the better price? I call it "delayed entry" and it's something which can make for successful trades as you've seen, and also allow you to create value bets where once there were none. I mean, backing Man City at home at odds of 33/1 is value in these eyes!!
And in Masters weekend, trading can be an option to your betting armoury. Backing players who have a good recent history both in recent tournaments and at the Masters may pay off. I am thinking personally of Hunter Mahon, who won recently at Houston, and Brandt Snedeker, who played very well last year at Augusta.
Hunter is available at odds of 38, and Snedeker at odds of 95. I will personally back them now, and look to trade at a lower price during the coming 4 days of the Masters.
I seem to recall too that Justin Rose has historically got off to a flyer at Augusta, before capitulating. If he does so again, I would lay at a lower price. Trading, you see, is all about the anticipation of a future price movement. And it's up to you to anticipate that price movement, be it
I would recommend a visit here or at betting.betfair in order to learn more about trading.
I'm off now to break the news to my girlfriend that the next 3 days are dedicated to the Masters. Nothing Personal!!
by Clive Keeling
Betting & Gambling Expert
Clive Keeling is the editor of What Really Wins Money trying and testing the latest betting systems, tipsters and strategies. You can sign up for his free weekly eletter here:
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