I would like to tackle the concept of “split races” and apply it specifically to jumps races.
Each Way Jumps Racing Strategy
Follow these simple steps to shortlist your races for the day:
1) Note 8 or 9 runner jumps races only (hurdles and chases). Please give ready preference to novice chases in particular. Why? Because we are looking to exploit possible mistakes from novices (still have their L plates on) over the larger chase fences (which can take some getting used to for learners in the sphere).
2) Look for “split races”. Eight runner races, for example, where there are 4 horses under 14/1 or higher odds. With 9-runner races, look for races where there are 4 or 5 horses under 14/1 or higher odds.
3) Compare the betting forecast odds with the live betting market odds to determine any market movers.
4) Look for each-way value alternatives (EVA) to the market leaders. We are looking for the short-priced favourites to make a mistake over obstacles while still having the chance of profiting if the favourite wins and our selection places.
In the examples below, the live betting market odds are bracketed. The betting forecast odds from the Racing Post are not. So, below, Taaresh’s betting forecast odds are 11/8 and his live betting odds are 13/8
20th August 2011 600 MARKET RASEN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 (13/8) Taaresh, 3/1(4/1) Ajdaad, 3/1 (3/1) Tom Wade, 5/1 (7/1) Royal Deal, 20/1(9/1) Yahrab, 25/1(16/1) Sunset Resort, 100/1(100/1) Baby Judge, 100/1(25/1) Jack’s Rocket. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Taking shortish odds for Taaresh may not be the best idea, so a chance is taken on Royal Deal, who hasn’t had much racing on the Flat and shaped better last time. [Alistair Whitehouse-Jones].
I shortlisted this jumps race because there were 8 runners (the lowest number of runners where there are 3 places paid out for each-way backers). The betting forecast hints at a 4-horse race between the horses under 20/1 (Taaressh, Ajdaad, Tom Wade, Royal Deal).
From an each-way perspective, Tom Wade and Royal Deal are the first stopping point. The next step is to compare the betting forecast odds with the live betting odds. Why? Well this race is an ideal example. Yahrab is 20/1 in the betting forecast and 9/1 in the live betting market. Jack’s Rocket is 100/1 in the betting forecast and 25/1 in the live betting market.
If the live market price is shorter than the betting forecast price it could signal a possible gamble on a horse like Yahrab. 20/1 in the betting forecast and 9/1 in the live market is quite some difference.
6:00 – Burts Chips Handmade In Devon Novices’ Hurdle
2m1f, Class 4, £2,274.30
1 Yahrab 9/1
2 Tom Wade 3/1
3 Royal Deal 7/1
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Reaping The Reward, 11/4 Undertheboardwalk, 7/2 Priors Gold, 13/2 Bachelor Lad, 10/1 Munaawer, 25/1 Jet Master, 50/1 Frontier Lad, 100/1 Sixties Rock.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Heavily penalised pair Bachelor Lad and Priors Gold look vulnerable to improving duo Undertheboardwalk and Reaping the Reward, with the Andrew-Parker trained gelding taken to come out on top. [Steve Boow]
Five under 33/1 in the live betting market. Please take note of races like these and look to avoid them from an EVA perspective. Why? Well sometimes two market leaders will clog up the places leaving you looking for one horse to fill one of the three places. As you can see below, both short-priced market leaders finished 1st and 2nd.
The ideal is a short-priced favourite, in an 8
7 runner, 3 place novices’ chase, where 4 horses are under 16/1 for instance.
6:25 – Royal Bank of Scotland Novices’ Hurdle
2m61⁄2f, Class 4, £3,249.00
1 Undertheboardwalk 10/11F
2 Reaping The Reward 9/4
3 Jet Master 20/1
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Alla Svelta, 3/1 Teenage Kicks, 4/1 With Grace, 9/2 Midnight Fun, 14/1 Dot Or Feather, 14/1 Ironical, 33/1 Gouranga Society, 100/1 Sunrise Court.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There’s a suspicion that current handicap marks may flatter one or two of these but Alla Svelta could be an exception, having looked like a horse with considerable potential ever since chasing home the very smart Dare Me at Exeter last November. [Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
This race was totally unique in that there were 4 horses left running and Betfair was still paying out on 3 places... The 4 horses remaining were Alla Svelta, 5/6 favourite, Teenage kicks at 9/4, Midnight Fun at 4/1 and Gouranga Society at 25/1.
This race is a prime example of what I am trying to get across. This was a novice hurdle. Four horses are running for 3 places on Betfair only (notice this anomaly – Betfair does not penalise non runners by changing the place only terms) – why not take a chance on complete outsider Gouranga Society placing at decent odds? After all 4 horses for 3 places and as a novice hurdle it only takes one faller for Gouranga Society to place.
And guess what? 5/6 favourite Alla Svelta fell and Gouranga Society finished 3rd at 25/1, paying 3.05 on Betfair’s place only market (which for a 4 horse race and 3 places is pretty good).
2:45 – Lime Tree Holiday Park Novices’ Hurdle
2m61⁄2f , Class 3, £3,994.20
1 Midnight Fun 4/1
2 Teenage Kicks 9/4
3 Gouranga Society 25/1
NR: Dot Or Feather (IRE), Ironical (IRE), Sunrise Court, With Grace 16/8
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6(8/13) Saved By John, 9/2(7/2) Cousin Maggie, 11/2(6/1) Shammy Buskins, 12/1(20/1) Lady Of Synone, 16/1(33/1) Half Mast, 16/1(12/1) Tales To Tell, 66/1(66/1) Reel Weld, 66/1(100/1) Simplyirresistible, 100/1(125/1) Indared.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Saved by John should prove hard to beat, even under a penalty, with Cousin Maggie and Shammy Buskins looking the likeliest to fill the frame. [Jonathan Neesom]
Saved by John a significant favourite here in this novices hurdle. Three under 20/1 in the live betting sees Cousin Maggie and Shammy Buskins the 2 to choose between for the places. Cousin Maggie was 7/2 in the live betting and Shammy Buskins 6/1.
The result is ideal as the EVA horse (each-way value alternative) Shammy Buskins wins. The race was a great example of the potential carnage of novice hurdles as 2 horses were pulled up and 2 horses fell, including the 2nd favourite.
This is what we are trying to exploit with EVA bets. We want mayhem in novice hurdles and chases. We want fallers, we want horses pulled up, just as long as our EVA horse remains standing!
6:40 – toteexacta Better Value Forecast Novices’ Hurdle
3m, Class 4, £2,053.20
1 Shammy Buskins 6/1
2 Saved By John 8/13F
3 Lady Of Synone 20/1
As the Jumps season takes hold this winter look out for:
• 8/9 horse races.
• A betting forecast and live betting market where 4 or 5 horses are under 16/1 or higher.
• One significant favourite (races with 2 strong short-priced favourites could clog up the 3 places on offer). • Of the remaining horses, look for an each-way value alternative (EVA horse – you will usually have a pool of 2 or 3 horses to choose from).
• The EVA horse should have an outstanding chance of placing at least, and a win, like Shammy Buskins, is a welcome bonus.
• Do look out for Betfair’s unique place only rules. The 245 Stratford above is an extreme example. Eight runners reduced to 4 runners and Betfair still paid out on 3 places.
• Remember, the worse the conditions, the better the race. We want heavy ground, we want a short-priced dodge pot favourite, we want 4 or more complete no hopers! We want novices (learners) over hurdles and in particular chase fences especially over long distances. We want ideally lady riders, amateurs, and conditionals! We want the chance of carnage so we can exploit potential downfalls in the favourite by opposing him with an each-way horse.
by Clive Keeling
Betting & Gambling Expert
Clive Keeling is the editor of What Really Wins Money trying and testing the latest betting systems, tipsters and strategies. You can sign up for his free weekly eletter here:
Login to post comments (we'd love to hear from you!)
To post a comment on this article, or any of the articles on the site, please login or sign up for FREE below. You'll also be able to see what real users have to say and get unlimited access to all reviews featured on whatbizopp.com.
Create an account