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Well what a week that was. Brass Monkeys are the 2 words to describe current circumstances and we have, from a horse racing perspective, been left largely with the all weather (yuk!) and this generally poor grade racing has tended to impact on all of the self created systems I am tracking.

Still, it has been a good week for the layers. 14 losers and 7 winners, some at odds of 1/6 , 4/9 and 1/5 ( i.e. low liability) have ensured a profit, for instance, for my price gapper lay strategy. And I am continuously surprised at the performance of this little strategy with its unique accompanying staking plans. 

This strategy tends to focus on favourites, and it is with favourites that I'd like to continue today.

Why should we focus on favourites?

Quite simple really, from my perspective it's a case of lazyitis. I hate analysing the form.

And here's the first favourite idea I'd like to share with you...

I have been following this idea since 20th September 2011 and there has only been one "blow out". You will understand why I call it a "blow out" once the system is revealed.

Quite simply we lay the favourites in the first 5 races of the day to win a set target amount, and stop at a loser. Today, for instance, the races we would be looking at would be:

So, we will begin the exercise by laying the horse in the 120 at Southwell. In this case we will be laying to win a specific stake amount, rather than laying to a fixed liability. If that horse loses, we stop for the day.

If the horse wins, we will lay the favourite in the 150 Southwell to win our target profit and lost stake from the 120 Southwell. If the favourite in the 150 Southwell loses, we finish for the day. If it wins, we continue on to the 205 Kempton.

And so on until that loser is found.

The 9th December 2011 was the only "blow out day" so far, where all 5 favourites won at odds of 13/8( a joint favourite), 8/11, 8/11, evens, 5/6.

If the "blow out days" are as rare as they have been so far, we should feel confident regarding long-term profit.

Concerns? Loss retrieval is a risky business at the best of times. Similarly, how do we approach joint favourites? Do we lay them both? And what if the favourite is priced at odds of 5/1? The liability will become uncomfortably high. These are the areas I will seek to focus on. I wanted to share this idea with you at this stage as it looks very promising. I will develop the idea as the week's progress.

There is also a particularly interesting 2nd favourites system which has been profiting since 29th October 2011. It is another stop at a winner system and is a backing system in this case. As you can appreciate, 2nd favourites, by their very nature, ensure we will never bet with an odds on shot ever again! And in most cases the odds are very generous indeed.

The idea with this system, which was forwarded to me by a reader last year who neglected to tell me the system's origins or name, is to back 6 2nd favourites at the meeting with the 2nd highest prize money using a specific staking plan on a stop at a winner basis. I need to look into the origins of the system before I can share it with you. It may have been a self created reader system, I hope so.

And here's a freebie...

Another reader (yes I have 2!!) emailed me this week to recommend the following website bettingbias, more specifically todays-tips.

The reason? The tips are free, and they made a healthy recent profit! The tips are archived so you can check out past performance. Bets cover all sports, it would seem, from golf, to tennis, rugby football, and there are some nice priced ante post bets too. This looks well worth checking out, and you can peruse the archived results at your leisure to ensure that the profile of the bets, expected losing runs etc., meet your needs.

If only other tipsters who charge for their services would actually post their results online, along with archived results. There's no excuses not to!

It's only blinkin' Cheltingham!

Yes, Cheltenham Festival, put on each year to celebrate my birthday, will be upon us sooner than you think, and February's What Really Wins Money will have a large Cheltenham bias. Our resident Statman will be pointing us towards some very interesting stats on favourites' performances at the festival; the guys at bettertipster have promised some insider info for readers; old stalwart The Patriarch has even been roped into the Cheltenham malarkey with an idea of his own, and Andrew David will share his each way tips which made 34 points profit last year.

I'll also have some news for you in upcoming eletters about a system which ensures a profit before a ball has been kicked in the football. Now that's what I'm talking about (you can even put your profits into your Monaco bank account!)

I'm off now to apply for the England job. I did coach my Sunday league side. I say coach, I provided the oranges, and even cut them up, and my Mum washed the kit too.

by Clive Keeling Betting & Gambling Expert Clive Keeling is the editor of What Really Wins Money trying and testing the latest betting systems, tipsters and strategies. You can sign up for his free weekly eletter here: Recent Articles by Clive Name Email

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