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Welcome to the first post of 2012, and - if there are any Mayans reading - welcome to you too in what is your last year on Planet Earth. Might as well give the bookies a bashing with your last breath!

Now, I have had loads of ideas these past few weeks, which I want to introduce to you…

Golf Tastic

Let's start with the golf. The first thing to note is the performance of Steve Palmer at the Racing post. Apparently in 2011, he generated 400 points profit. Not to be sniffed at. I mentioned I would be looking at golf, and here is my first idea.

I am a great one for modelling. No, not standing around in a pair of boxers getting my photo snapped. I mean taking on the ideas of others, and making them work for yourself. And so it was that I trundled over to golfinvestorclub.
I am not advocating joining the service, as I have not checked it out. What I am advocating is perhaps following the strategy freely available at the website.

And it is as follows:

Spread bet buy the finishing positions of 5 players.

Now I am new to spreadbetting, so this will require some investigation. Why not spread bet buy the positions of 5 players mentioned by Steve Palmer at the Racing Post? I am thinking aloud here. Or include Jeremy Chapman as well? Just an idea I will be following.

Spreadbetting and sport is something new to me which I want to tackle in 2012. It is akin to financial trading in that it is a leveraged product, so profits can be huge, but losses also without correct money management.

Hit for 6!

My each way idea given recently of backing the 6th favourite in the Racing Post Betting forecast only, in 8 or 9 runner races, has produced the following winners and placed horses since 26th December to date.

3rd 50/1, 3rd 16/1 , 1st 10/1, 2nd 25/1 , 3rd 6/1 , 3rd 33/1 , 3rd 15/2 , 1st 14/1 , 1st 7/1 , 1st 18/1 , 3rd 10/3 , 3rd 5/1 , 3rd 9/2 , 1st 8/1 , 1st 14/1 , 1st 14/1 , 3rd 8/1, 1st 9/1 , 1st 10/3 , 2nd 8/1, 3rd 14/1 , from 26th December to date.

Some whopping winners and placed horses. Imagine the payout for the place only on a 50/1 shot! Now note I have not included all of the 6th favourites who did not place.

Instinct tells me these winners surely amply compensated for lost stakes. I will complete the picture in a future eletter. But seeing a winner at 10/1, 14/1, 7/1, 18/1, 8/1, 14/1, 14/1, 9/1, 10/3 and standout placers at 33/1, 50/1, 25/1 leads me to believe we might be on to something.

And the piece de resistance...

I bet you didn't know I was bilingual.

Let me ask you a question. What is the ideal betting system?

For me, the ideal betting system is as follows:

1) We make a profit backing selections with a certain staking plan.

2) We make a profit laying the same selections with another staking plan.

Now take a look at the profit graphs for these horse racing selections. I have backed and layed the same selections with different staking plans.

This is the graph for the selections when I back them using a specific staking plan.



Now here is the graph when I lay the same selections using a specific staking plan.



Both backing and laying the same selections is producing a healthy profit. If a horse wins, the back part of the system wins, and if a horse loses, the lay part of the system wins.

The key characteristic? Would seem to be a strike rate of around 50% for the selections at prices which generally reflect favouritism. Average odds are around 2.42 (which is just over evens).

Is this the formula for success? Do you have any 50% strike rate systems which you are using, based largely around favourites? Perhaps I could put them through my staking software to create the ultimate betting system?

Am I onto something? Let's find out as the weeks progress. I will go into greater detail on this idea in my January newsletter What Really Wins Money. You can get a trial of this here if you're not already signed up:

What Really Wins Money

New balls please!

No, not one of my new year's resolutions, this is just a heads up that the Australian Open will be with us soon. And I have spoken previously about tennis trading on Betfair and how potentially lucrative it can be. I will be reproducing some ideas in next week's post in time for kick off on the 16th January.

I have traditionally made a good profit from the Australian Open, and acknowledge that some of the matches are at unappetising times. But what you learn next in the next post can be put to use at European time based Tennis tournaments.

I know I promised you details on performances of favourites. I am working on the database. I am afraid I was sidetracked by my ultimate betting system idea, which took precedence this week. But there will be posts galore this year to catch up further, so fear not..

by Clive Keeling Betting & Gambling Expert Clive Keeling is the editor of What Really Wins Money trying and testing the latest betting systems, tipsters and strategies. You can sign up for his free weekly eletter here: Recent Articles by Clive Name Email

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